Ultra Clean (UCTT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $26.76 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Ultra Clean (UCTT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $26.76Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing. Themes include Semiconductor Capital Equipment Components, and Semiconductor Process Cleaning & Services. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.6% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing. Themes include Semiconductor Capital Equipment Components, and Semiconductor Process Cleaning & Services. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.6% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
UCTT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The approximate 11.7% movement in Ultra Clean (UCTT) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share Beat and Improved Margins: Ultra Clean reported its financial results for the third quarter ended September 26, 2025, on October 28, 2025. The company announced non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.255. Additionally, Ultra Clean achieved its highest gross margins for the year, reaching 17.0% on a non-GAAP basis, an improvement from 16.3% in the prior quarter. This positive financial performance likely bolstered investor confidence in the company's profitability.
2. Positive Stock Trajectory Leading Up to Q3 Earnings: Prior to the third-quarter earnings announcement on October 28, 2025, UCTT's stock experienced a significant positive trend. The stock gained 13.4% in the month leading up to the report, 9.5% in the two weeks prior, and 4.3% in the last week before the announcement. This pre-earnings rally indicates strong market anticipation and optimism regarding the company's performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UCTT Return | 33% | 84% | -42% | 3% | 5% | -28% | 10% |
| Peers Return | 46% | 48% | -27% | 47% | 4% | 65% | 302% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UCTT Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 53% | 32% | 52% | 40% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UCTT Max Drawdown | -47% | 0% | -57% | -30% | -8% | -50% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -3% | -41% | -2% | -7% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: Q, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, TER.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UCTT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -52.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 110.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -79.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 384.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 711 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -95.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1985.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2975 days | 1480 days |
Compare to Q, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, TER
In The Past
Ultra Clean's stock fell -64.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/5/2021. A -64.3% loss requires a 179.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UCTT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302022 | UCTT | Ultra Clean | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | -8.4% | -20.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302022 | UCTT | Ultra Clean | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | -8.4% | -20.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ultra Clean
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 177.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 159.7 |
| Rev LTM | 8,449 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,047 |
| FCF LTM | 2,265 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,413 |
| CFO LTM | 2,582 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,737 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 29.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 159.7 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| P/EBIT | 25.3 |
| P/E | 29.1 |
| P/CFO | 26.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 63.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 66.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 69.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 158.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 54.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 52.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 64.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 93.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/26/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/27/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/28/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/27/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/27/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/28/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/29/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3062024 | 10-K 12/29/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/29/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8112023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/30/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 7/1/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 4/1/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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