MSP Recovery (MSPR)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $0.199 | Market Cap: $0.3 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Technology
MSP Recovery (MSPR)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $0.199Market Cap: $0.3 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Technology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -143%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -169% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.2 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -502 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5116% | ||
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 351930% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -95% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -177%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -182% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 191% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -284405% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 704% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 37% | ||
| Key risksMSPR key risks include [1] substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern and a Nasdaq delisting threat, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -143%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -169% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.2 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -502 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5116% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 351930% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -95% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -177%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -182% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 191% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -284405% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 704% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 37% |
| Key risksMSPR key risks include [1] substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern and a Nasdaq delisting threat, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MSPR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Following are key points explaining the approximate -55.5% movement in MSP Recovery (MSPR) stock.
1. Nasdaq Delisting Threats and Non-Compliance
MSP Recovery faced severe delisting threats from Nasdaq in late 2025. On October 22, 2025, the company received a Staff Delisting Determination from Nasdaq due to non-compliance with minimum stockholders' equity and other financial standards, leading to the suspension of trading from the Nasdaq Capital Market effective October 31, 2025. Additionally, on November 28, 2025, MSP Recovery was notified of non-compliance with the minimum bid price requirement, further jeopardizing its Nasdaq listing. Earlier, on May 1, 2025, MSP Recovery was notified of non-compliance with the minimum stockholders' equity requirement, with a reported deficit of ($128,409,000) as of December 31, 2024.
2. Significant Financial Losses and Negative Shareholder Equity
The company reported substantial financial instability, with a net loss of approximately $1.56 billion for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, and an operating loss of $1.274 billion for the same period. The company's total shareholder equity was deeply negative, recorded at $-844.4 million, reflecting a precarious financial position. This significant deficit in stockholders' equity was a primary reason for the Nasdaq non-compliance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSPR Return | � | � | � | 0% | 42% | -98% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSPR Win Rate | � | � | 43% | 0% | 8% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSPR Max Drawdown | � | � | � | 0% | 0% | -99% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CTEV, UNH, CNDT, MDRX, HQY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSPR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -80.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 416.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to OMCL, BEAT, CARL, HTFL, VEEV
In The Past
MSP Recovery's stock fell -80.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/24/2022. A -80.6% loss requires a 416.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MSPR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | -6.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | -6.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MSP Recovery
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 22.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,121 |
| Op Inc LTM | 15 |
| FCF LTM | 33 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -14 |
| CFO LTM | 67 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 56 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | -1.0 |
| P/E | -1.0 |
| P/CFO | 9.3 |
| Total Yield | -31.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.4% |
| D/E | 1.6 |
| Net D/E | 1.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -49.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -49.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -62.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -120.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11192025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4162025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 8172023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 7272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 5032022 | 424B3 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |