MarketAxess (MKTX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $181.88 | Market Cap: $6.7 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Financial Exchanges & Data
MarketAxess (MKTX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $181.88Market Cap: $6.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 5.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102% | Key risksMKTX key risks include [1] intense competitive pressure eroding its market share and profit margins in key credit markets, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Electronic Fixed Income Trading, and Algorithmic Trading. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 5.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Electronic Fixed Income Trading, and Algorithmic Trading. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102% |
| Key risksMKTX key risks include [1] intense competitive pressure eroding its market share and profit margins in key credit markets, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MKTX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
MarketAxess (MKTX) experienced a slight decline of -0.6% during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025. This movement can be attributed to a combination of factors, primarily related to mixed financial results, analyst rating adjustments, and variable trading volumes in specific market segments.
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Presented Mixed Signals. MarketAxess reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 7, 2025. While the company's diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.84 surpassed the analyst consensus of $1.73, total revenues of $208.8 million fell slightly short of the $213.2 million estimate. This mixed performance, with a bottom-line beat but a top-line miss, likely contributed to investor uncertainty.
2. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Adjustments. Several analyst firms revised their ratings and price targets for MKTX during this period. For example, Morgan Stanley downgraded MKTX from "Overweight" to "Equal-Weight" on November 20, 2025, lowering its price target from $247.00 to $209.00. Additionally, Barclays lowered its price target on October 8, 2025, from $200.00 to $186.00, while UBS Group also decreased its price target from $255.00 to $240.00 on October 7, 2025. On December 17, 2025, Argus Research maintained a "Buy" rating but lowered its price target from $212.00 to $205.00. BofA Securities also adjusted its price target to $167 from $176 on December 10, 2025. These downward adjustments in price targets and downgrades, despite some maintained "Buy" ratings, could have put downward pressure on the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MKTX Return | 51% | -28% | -32% | 6% | -22% | -19% | -50% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 43% | -19% | 28% | 25% | 12% | 130% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MKTX Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 63% | 38% | 63% | 55% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MKTX Max Drawdown | -26% | -39% | -46% | -27% | -34% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -3% | -31% | -7% | -4% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TW, ICE, CME, CBOE, NDAQ. See MKTX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MKTX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 187.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 197 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -77.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 348.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 790 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ICE, NDAQ, MSCI, CBOE, FDS
In The Past
MarketAxess's stock fell -65.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2021. A -65.2% loss requires a 187.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MKTX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| 12312022 | MKTX | MarketAxess | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.8% | 6.1% | -27.1% |
| 04302022 | MKTX | MarketAxess | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | 22.0% | -16.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| 12312022 | MKTX | MarketAxess | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.8% | 6.1% | -27.1% |
| 04302022 | MKTX | MarketAxess | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | 22.0% | -16.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MarketAxess
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 171.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 40.1 |
| Rev LTM | 5,464 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,819 |
| FCF LTM | 1,543 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,409 |
| CFO LTM | 1,714 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,535 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 39.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 38.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 43.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 41.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 36.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 40.1 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| P/EBIT | 19.7 |
| P/E | 30.3 |
| P/CFO | 20.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 67.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/7/2025 | 0.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | -10.1% | -9.4% | -13.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | -0.3% | -6.9% | -0.9% |
| 2/6/2025 | 1.6% | -2.6% | 5.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | -1.5% | -2.7% | -12.4% |
| 8/6/2024 | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.9% |
| 5/7/2024 | -2.4% | 0.1% | -4.2% |
| 1/31/2024 | -17.8% | -19.3% | -22.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 15 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -3.6% | -7.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 13.8% | 9.7% |
| Max Negative | -17.8% | -19.3% | -22.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |