FibroGen (FGEN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.16 | Market Cap: $33.0 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
FibroGen (FGEN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.16Market Cap: $33.0 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -170% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is -73 Mil |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -115 Mil | ||
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 235% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -896%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -351% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 2115% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -170% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is -73 Mil |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -115 Mil |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 235% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -896%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -351% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 2115% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FGEN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Based on available information for FibroGen (FGEN) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, a -31.4% stock movement was not observed. Instead, the company experienced several key developments that influenced its stock performance during this period.
1. Q2 2025 Earnings Miss: FibroGen reported a significant miss on its second-quarter 2025 financial results on August 11, 2025. The company announced an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$1.88, considerably below the forecast of -$0.09, and revenue of $1.3 million, falling short of the $2.88 million forecast. This announcement led to an immediate 3.9% decline in FibroGen's stock price to $8.71.
2. Sale of FibroGen China Operations: In September 2025, FibroGen completed the sale of its FibroGen China operations to AstraZeneca for approximately $220 million, including about $135 million in net cash. This strategic move was highlighted as a positive development, significantly simplifying the company's capital structure, enabling the repayment of a term loan, and extending its cash runway into 2028.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FGEN Return | -14% | -62% | 14% | -94% | -40% | -39% | -99% |
| Peers Return | 1% | 8% | -9% | 4% | -11% | 9% | -0% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FGEN Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 48% | 50% | 55% | 43% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FGEN Max Drawdown | -46% | -73% | -44% | -98% | -66% | -98% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -10% | -23% | -19% | -26% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACT, ALKS, LIVN, PRGO, PCRX. See FGEN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FGEN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -99.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14559.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 204 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to ACT, ALKS, LIVN, PRGO, PCRX
In The Past
FibroGen's stock fell -99.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -99.3% loss requires a 14559.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FGEN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for FibroGen
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 26.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,287 |
| Op Inc LTM | 194 |
| FCF LTM | 231 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 192 |
| CFO LTM | 313 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 252 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 9.0 |
| P/E | -0.9 |
| P/CFO | 8.1 |
| Total Yield | 0.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -17.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -87.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development and commercialization of novel therapeutics to treat serious unmet medical needs | 47 | ||||
| Development and other revenue | 24 | 70 | 81 | 114 | |
| Drug product revenue, net | 11 | 1 | 9 | -36 | |
| License revenue | 23 | 116 | 14 | 177 | |
| Product revenue, net | 83 | 48 | 72 | 2 | |
| Total | 47 | 141 | 235 | 176 | 257 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3172025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11092021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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