Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -170%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is -73 Mil
1   Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -115 Mil
2   Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 235%
3   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -896%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -351%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 2115%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -170%
2 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is -73 Mil
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -115 Mil
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 235%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -896%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -351%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 2115%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FGEN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Based on available information for FibroGen (FGEN) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, a -31.4% stock movement was not observed. Instead, the company experienced several key developments that influenced its stock performance during this period.

1. Q2 2025 Earnings Miss: FibroGen reported a significant miss on its second-quarter 2025 financial results on August 11, 2025. The company announced an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$1.88, considerably below the forecast of -$0.09, and revenue of $1.3 million, falling short of the $2.88 million forecast. This announcement led to an immediate 3.9% decline in FibroGen's stock price to $8.71.

2. Sale of FibroGen China Operations: In September 2025, FibroGen completed the sale of its FibroGen China operations to AstraZeneca for approximately $220 million, including about $135 million in net cash. This strategic move was highlighted as a positive development, significantly simplifying the company's capital structure, enabling the repayment of a term loan, and extending its cash runway into 2028.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FGEN Return-14%-62%14%-94%-40%-39%-99%
Peers Return1%8%-9%4%-11%9%-0%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FGEN Win Rate33%50%58%33%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate42%48%50%55%43%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FGEN Max Drawdown-46%-73%-44%-98%-66%-98% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-10%-23%-19%-26%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACT, ALKS, LIVN, PRGO, PCRX. See FGEN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFGENS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-99.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven14559.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-49.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven97.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven204 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-48.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to ACT, ALKS, LIVN, PRGO, PCRX


In The Past

FibroGen's stock fell -99.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -99.3% loss requires a 14559.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About FibroGen (FGEN)

Better Bets than FibroGen (FGEN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FGEN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for FibroGen

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FGENACTALKSLIVNPRGOPCRXMedian
NameFibroGen Enact Alkermes LivaNova Perrigo Pacira B. 
Mkt Price8.1238.6129.5363.2913.9624.1926.86
Mkt Cap0.05.74.93.51.91.12.7
Rev LTM-731,2251,5211,3494,2827171,287
Op Inc LTM-115-35919439360194
FCF LTM-24704491191271124231
FCF 3Y Avg-182672353103235149192
CFO LTM-23704541251376141313
CFO 3Y Avg-181672397150339165252

Growth & Margins

FGENACTALKSLIVNPRGOPCRXMedian
NameFibroGen Enact Alkermes LivaNova Perrigo Pacira B. 
Rev Chg LTM-895.7%2.4%1.1%8.6%-2.5%3.1%1.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-350.6%3.9%12.1%9.9%-0.8%3.1%3.5%
Rev Chg Q35.1%0.6%4.2%12.5%-4.1%6.5%5.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.5%0.2%1.1%3.0%-1.0%1.6%0.8%
Op Mgn LTM--23.6%14.4%9.2%8.4%11.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--24.7%8.3%6.5%11.1%9.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM---1.3%1.0%-0.4%-1.4%-0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-57.5%35.6%18.6%8.8%19.7%19.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-56.6%25.9%11.6%7.6%23.8%23.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-57.5%32.3%14.2%6.3%17.3%17.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-56.6%23.1%7.9%5.3%21.6%21.6%

Valuation

FGENACTALKSLIVNPRGOPCRXMedian
NameFibroGen Enact Alkermes LivaNova Perrigo Pacira B. 
Mkt Cap0.05.74.93.51.91.12.7
P/S-4.63.32.10.71.62.1
P/EBIT-0.26.312.2-20.811.619.99.0
P/E-10.48.614.6-13.2-59.552.9-0.9
P/CFO-0.98.09.211.48.28.08.1
Total Yield-9.6%13.8%6.8%-7.6%-0.4%1.9%0.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.1%0.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2,944.5%12.9%7.4%3.6%6.5%16.0%7.0%
D/E3.40.10.00.21.20.40.3
Net D/E2.4-0.3-0.2-0.11.00.20.1

Returns

FGENACTALKSLIVNPRGOPCRXMedian
NameFibroGen Enact Alkermes LivaNova Perrigo Pacira B. 
1M Rtn-26.2%8.1%-2.1%20.4%-30.5%9.0%3.0%
3M Rtn-32.1%2.8%-1.6%11.8%-38.8%-11.0%-6.3%
6M Rtn6.5%12.7%-6.4%42.3%-45.0%-10.3%0.0%
12M Rtn-20.8%11.7%0.2%22.6%-48.1%45.0%5.9%
3Y Rtn-98.0%71.4%21.8%13.6%-50.4%-48.8%-17.6%
1M Excs Rtn-26.2%8.2%-2.1%20.4%-30.5%9.0%3.0%
3M Excs Rtn-33.6%-4.2%-3.2%3.5%-44.1%-14.8%-9.5%
6M Excs Rtn-8.3%-2.0%-21.1%27.6%-59.7%-25.1%-14.7%
12M Excs Rtn-37.1%-1.4%-11.8%7.0%-61.9%29.5%-6.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-170.5%1.3%-40.3%-52.0%-122.8%-123.4%-87.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Development and commercialization of novel therapeutics to treat serious unmet medical needs47    
Development and other revenue 247081114
Drug product revenue, net 1119-36
License revenue 2311614177
Product revenue, net 8348722
Total47141235176257


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity146,531
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202539.8%
Average Daily Volume47,014
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.12
Basic Shares Quantity4,042,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024317202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211109202110-Q 9/30/2021