Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -23%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.2 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -36%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 303%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 140%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Diabetes Management, and Chronic GI Disease Therapies.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 225%
5   Key risks
EVOK key risks include [1] its complete dependence on a single product, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -23%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Diabetes Management, and Chronic GI Disease Therapies.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.2 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -36%
6 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 303%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 140%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23%
9 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 225%
10 Key risks
EVOK key risks include [1] its complete dependence on a single product, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EVOK Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining Evoke Pharma's (EVOK) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Evoke Pharma reported strong second quarter 2025 financial results on August 14, 2025, with net product sales of GIMOTI® (metoclopramide) nasal spray increasing 47% year-over-year to $3.8 million. The company also confirmed its full-year 2025 net product sales guidance of approximately $16 million, representing up to a 60% increase over 2024.

2. On August 21, 2025, Evoke Pharma announced the listing of a new U.S. Patent for GIMOTI in the FDA Orange Book, extending the expected exclusivity for the product until November 2038. This intellectual property protection was a significant positive development for the company.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EVOK Return59%-79%-59%-61%-65%149%-95%
Peers Return-28%-11%-8%5%-30%-15%-64%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EVOK Win Rate50%33%25%25%33%67% 
Peers Win Rate40%43%35%43%40%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EVOK Max Drawdown-49%-79%-78%-64%-69%-53% 
Peers Max Drawdown-53%-29%-57%-37%-48%-57% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VNDA, PCSA, IRWD, ARDX, BHC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEVOKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-98.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven5398.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven122.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-86.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven631.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven405 days120 days

Compare to LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY


In The Past

Evoke Pharma's stock fell -98.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -98.2% loss requires a 5398.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Evoke Pharma (EVOK)

Better Bets than Evoke Pharma (EVOK)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EVOK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Evoke Pharma

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EVOKVNDAPCSAIRWDARDXBHCMedian
NameEvoke Ph.Vanda Ph.Processa.Ironwood.Ardelyx Bausch H. 
Mkt Price11.006.826.683.375.796.826.75
Mkt Cap0.00.40.00.51.42.50.5
Rev LTM1421203393989,858276
Op Inc LTM-5-121-13144-381,886-9
FCF LTM-3-83-1168-551,104-7
FCF 3Y Avg-5-25-10139-62450-8
CFO LTM-3-82-1168-541,506-7
CFO 3Y Avg-5-25-10140-61780-8

Growth & Margins

EVOKVNDAPCSAIRWDARDXBHCMedian
NameEvoke Ph.Vanda Ph.Processa.Ironwood.Ardelyx Bausch H. 
Rev Chg LTM67.4%11.1%--10.4%58.1%7.1%11.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg91.7%-5.6%--6.7%512.0%6.4%6.4%
Rev Chg Q61.4%18.1%-33.3%12.3%5.3%18.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM12.7%4.2%-9.9%3.1%1.3%4.2%
Op Mgn LTM-36.0%-57.1%-42.4%-9.5%19.1%-9.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-91.0%-25.6%-38.5%-17.4%18.2%-17.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM5.7%-7.6%-12.7%0.9%0.1%0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-23.0%-38.6%-20.0%-13.5%15.3%-13.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-77.8%-11.9%-35.1%-29.4%8.0%-11.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-23.0%-39.1%-20.0%-13.9%11.2%-13.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-77.8%-12.2%-35.0%-29.7%4.4%-12.2%

Valuation

EVOKVNDAPCSAIRWDARDXBHCMedian
NameEvoke Ph.Vanda Ph.Processa.Ironwood.Ardelyx Bausch H. 
Mkt Cap0.00.40.00.51.42.50.5
P/S2.01.4-1.63.30.21.6
P/EBIT-6.0-2.4-1.04.3-46.21.4-1.7
P/E-5.4-3.5-1.019.1-23.624.4-2.2
P/CFO-8.5-3.6-1.28.1-24.91.6-2.4
Total Yield-18.6%-28.6%-101.8%5.2%-4.2%4.1%-11.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-81.5%-8.2%-4,086.2%21.9%-5.2%18.1%-6.7%
D/E0.20.00.01.10.29.10.2
Net D/E-0.2-1.0-0.50.8-0.08.4-0.1

Returns

EVOKVNDAPCSAIRWDARDXBHCMedian
NameEvoke Ph.Vanda Ph.Processa.Ironwood.Ardelyx Bausch H. 
1M Rtn2.9%55.0%-2.3%7.7%-2.0%11.3%5.3%
3M Rtn116.1%55.4%29.2%163.3%-6.5%-0.1%42.3%
6M Rtn303.2%50.6%10.4%382.3%60.4%10.4%55.5%
12M Rtn139.7%44.2%-73.5%-4.5%24.2%-11.2%9.9%
3Y Rtn-51.8%-3.3%-99.2%-72.1%195.4%-4.3%-28.1%
1M Excs Rtn2.2%54.3%-3.0%6.9%-2.8%10.5%4.5%
3M Excs Rtn115.2%49.5%27.5%129.5%-11.2%-2.4%38.5%
6M Excs Rtn290.8%38.2%-2.0%369.9%48.0%-2.0%43.1%
12M Excs Rtn122.5%36.9%-87.0%-15.6%-0.2%-23.8%-7.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-115.4%-105.2%-167.8%-140.7%119.6%-79.3%-110.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Net product sales5320 
Total5320 


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment    6
Total    6


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,987
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-60.6%
Average Daily Volume35,167
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity2,557,408
Short % of Basic Shares0.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/13/20250.1%0.0%2.6%
8/14/20254.3%18.3%4.9%
5/13/20250.3%3.2%-6.1%
11/9/202310.3%9.5%4.3%
8/10/20232.2%-10.5%-14.6%
3/21/2023-15.2%-31.6%-31.0%
11/9/202213.0%1.9%5.6%
8/10/2022-9.0%-15.4%-23.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive776
# Negative889
Median Positive4.3%3.2%4.6%
Median Negative-13.2%-21.7%-23.8%
Max Positive19.6%20.0%22.3%
Max Negative-21.0%-31.6%-42.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251113202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024313202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024514202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023314202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023515202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022321202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022810202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021308202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Nantahala Capital Management, LLC1302025Sell4.3941180649,962Form