Evoke Pharma (EVOK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.93 | Market Cap: $27.9 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Evoke Pharma (EVOK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.93Market Cap: $27.9 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -104% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -42% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 213%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 160% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Diabetes Management, and Chronic GI Disease Therapies. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -28% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -85% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 225% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -104% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Diabetes Management, and Chronic GI Disease Therapies. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -42% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 213%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 160% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -28% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -85% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 225% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EVOK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Evoke Pharma (EVOK) stock moved significantly from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Definitive Agreement to be Acquired by QOL Medical. Evoke Pharma announced on November 4, 2025, that it entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by QOL Medical for $11.00 per share in cash. This offer represented a substantial premium of 139.7% to Evoke's closing share price on November 3, 2025, and was unanimously approved by Evoke's Board of Directors. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025.
2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. On November 13, 2025, Evoke Pharma reported robust financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. The company's net product sales for GIMOTI reached $4.3 million, marking a 61% increase year-over-year. Year-to-date sales also demonstrated significant growth, totaling $11.1 million, a 60% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EVOK Return | 59% | -79% | -59% | -61% | -65% | 147% | -95% |
| Peers Return | 7% | 30% | 20% | -3% | 7% | 16% | 99% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EVOK Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 25% | 25% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 55% | 63% | 38% | 47% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EVOK Max Drawdown | -49% | -79% | -78% | -64% | -69% | -53% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -7% | -11% | -23% | -10% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EVOK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 5398.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -86.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 631.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 120 days |
Compare to LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY
In The Past
Evoke Pharma's stock fell -98.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -98.2% loss requires a 5398.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is Evoke Pharma Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EVOK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Evoke Pharma
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 76.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 200.3 |
| Rev LTM | 58,022 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18,904 |
| FCF LTM | 11,712 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,262 |
| CFO LTM | 14,849 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,487 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 200.3 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/EBIT | 10.7 |
| P/E | 15.0 |
| P/CFO | 11.7 |
| Total Yield | 10.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -13.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 19.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -84.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3082022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11102021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Nantahala Capital Management, LLC | 1302025 | Sell | 4.39 | 41 | 180 | 649,962 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |