Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -104%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -42%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 213%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 160%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Diabetes Management, and Chronic GI Disease Therapies.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -28%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -85%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 225%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -104%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Diabetes Management, and Chronic GI Disease Therapies.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -42%
6 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 213%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 160%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -28%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -85%
9 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 225%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EVOK Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Evoke Pharma (EVOK) stock moved significantly from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Definitive Agreement to be Acquired by QOL Medical. Evoke Pharma announced on November 4, 2025, that it entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by QOL Medical for $11.00 per share in cash. This offer represented a substantial premium of 139.7% to Evoke's closing share price on November 3, 2025, and was unanimously approved by Evoke's Board of Directors. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025.

2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. On November 13, 2025, Evoke Pharma reported robust financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. The company's net product sales for GIMOTI reached $4.3 million, marking a 61% increase year-over-year. Year-to-date sales also demonstrated significant growth, totaling $11.1 million, a 60% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EVOK Return59%-79%-59%-61%-65%147%-95%
Peers Return7%30%20%-3%7%16%99%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EVOK Win Rate50%33%25%25%33%60% 
Peers Win Rate47%55%63%38%47%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EVOK Max Drawdown-49%-79%-78%-64%-69%-53% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-7%-11%-23%-10%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEVOKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-98.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven5398.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven122.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-86.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven631.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven405 days120 days

Compare to LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY


In The Past

Evoke Pharma's stock fell -98.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -98.2% loss requires a 5398.8% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Evoke Pharma (EVOK)

Better Bets than Evoke Pharma (EVOK)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EVOK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Evoke Pharma

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EVOKLLYJNJMRKPFEBMYMedian
NameEvoke Ph.Eli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer Bristol-. 
Mkt Price10.931,033.56205.33102.2725.5750.9676.61
Mkt Cap0.0928.0494.5255.2145.4103.8200.3
Rev LTM1353,25892,14964,23562,78648,03458,022
Op Inc LTM-522,88224,14622,39115,41711,42018,904
FCF LTM-4-5018,67913,04910,37615,30211,712
FCF 3Y Avg-5-15617,81413,6858,92713,59811,262
CFO LTM-410,93824,20417,06513,07716,62114,849
CFO 3Y Avg-57,23023,20917,50612,12714,84613,487

Growth & Margins

EVOKLLYJNJMRKPFEBMYMedian
NameEvoke Ph.Eli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer Bristol-. 
Rev Chg LTM70.0%36.8%5.1%1.7%3.9%1.3%4.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg81.7%23.4%6.1%2.9%-13.2%1.0%4.5%
Rev Chg Q47.1%37.6%6.8%3.7%-5.9%2.8%5.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM10.4%8.7%1.7%1.0%-1.6%0.7%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM-41.7%43.0%26.2%34.9%24.6%23.8%25.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-112.0%35.6%26.4%23.7%19.4%19.0%21.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.4%1.8%1.7%3.7%-1.4%2.9%1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-28.3%20.5%26.3%26.6%20.8%34.6%23.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-94.2%17.8%26.4%28.2%18.9%31.7%22.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-28.3%-0.1%20.3%20.3%16.5%31.9%18.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-94.2%0.5%20.3%22.0%13.9%29.0%17.1%

Valuation

EVOKLLYJNJMRKPFEBMYMedian
NameEvoke Ph.Eli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer Bristol-. 
Mkt Cap0.0928.0494.5255.2145.4103.8200.3
P/S0.512.94.83.32.31.92.8
P/EBIT-1.438.613.89.112.29.210.7
P/E-1.249.617.811.014.715.215.0
P/CFO-1.862.618.412.311.15.511.7
Total Yield-81.1%2.7%8.4%13.0%13.5%12.0%10.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.7%2.7%3.9%6.7%5.4%3.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-78.5%0.1%4.4%5.5%5.5%13.2%4.9%
D/E0.80.10.10.20.40.60.3
Net D/E-1.00.10.10.10.30.40.1

Returns

EVOKLLYJNJMRKPFEBMYMedian
NameEvoke Ph.Eli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer Bristol-. 
1M Rtn138.1%15.5%10.9%24.0%3.7%10.7%13.2%
3M Rtn106.2%40.3%16.1%22.7%5.0%8.8%19.4%
6M Rtn212.7%35.5%35.9%33.3%13.2%9.2%34.4%
12M Rtn159.6%28.0%38.9%4.1%7.3%-8.9%17.7%
3Y Rtn-45.1%182.4%25.7%1.6%-40.3%-28.3%-13.3%
1M Excs Rtn138.2%15.5%11.0%24.0%3.7%10.8%13.2%
3M Excs Rtn101.3%34.0%10.2%17.5%0.7%5.3%13.9%
6M Excs Rtn198.0%20.7%21.1%18.6%-1.6%-5.6%19.6%
12M Excs Rtn133.2%17.4%23.0%-9.2%-8.9%-23.2%4.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-111.2%116.6%-46.0%-69.7%-111.4%-99.3%-84.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Net product sales5320 
Total5320 


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment    6
Total    6


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity17,746
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025109.8%
Average Daily Volume453,738
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity2,553,174
Short % of Basic Shares0.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024313202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024514202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023314202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023515202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022321202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022810202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021308202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211110202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Nantahala Capital Management, LLC1302025Sell4.3941180649,962Form