Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.265 | Market Cap: $311.1 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.265Market Cap: $311.1 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -96% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -121 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -57% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -39% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -33% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -96% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -121 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -57% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -39% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -33% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VNDA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points for why Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) stock moved by 11.4% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
**1. Positive Phase 2 results for Tradipitant in preventing GLP-1 agonist-induced nausea and vomiting were announced.** This clinical success demonstrated a significant ~50% relative reduction in vomiting in a Phase 2 study, with Vanda planning a Phase 3 program for the first half of 2026.
**2. Vanda established a collaborative framework with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to resolve regulatory disputes regarding HETLIOZ and tradipitant.** This agreement included an expedited re-review of the partial clinical hold on tradipitant for motion sickness (extended to December 5, 2025) and maintained the New Drug Application (NDA) review for tradipitant with an unchanged PDUFA target action date of December 30, 2025, as well as an expedited FDA re-review of the HETLIOZ sNDA by January 7, 2026.
**3. The FDA granted Orphan Drug Designation for VGT-1849B, a novel candidate for the treatment of Polycythemia Vera.** This designation could accelerate the development and review process for this pipeline asset, offering potential future market exclusivity and revenue streams.
**4. The company reported strong commercial performance for Fanapt in its third quarter 2025 financial results.** Fanapt sales increased by 31% year-over-year, contributing significantly to the total net product sales of $56.3 million, which were up 18% year-over-year.
**5. Vanda Pharmaceuticals actively participated in multiple investor healthcare conferences during this period.** The company presented at the Cantor Global Healthcare Conference, Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, H.C. Wainwright Annual Global Investment Conference in September, and the Stifel 2025 Healthcare Conference in November, increasing its visibility and engagement with the investment community regarding its strategic pipeline and growth initiatives.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VNDA Return | -20% | 19% | -53% | -43% | 14% | 3% | -70% |
| Peers Return | 2% | -1% | 6% | 8% | -0% | 2% | 17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VNDA Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 25% | 42% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 90% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VNDA Max Drawdown | -54% | 0% | -56% | -54% | -18% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -5% | 0% | -0% | -1% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VNDA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -84.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 536.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 123.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 330 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -61.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 156.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 6234.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
Vanda Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -84.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/30/2021. A -84.3% loss requires a 536.4% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Vanda Pharmaceuticals Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VNDA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Vanda Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.3 |
| Rev LTM | 10 |
| Op Inc LTM | -92 |
| FCF LTM | -60 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -60 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -57.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 0.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -3.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -38.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -39.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.3 |
| P/S | 5.0 |
| P/EBIT | 10.0 |
| P/E | 11.9 |
| P/CFO | 11.7 |
| Total Yield | -12.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -3.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -73.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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