Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA)
Market Price (12/9/2025): $9.31 | Market Cap: $517.9 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA)
Market Price (12/9/2025): $9.31Market Cap: $517.9 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Synthetic Biology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -133%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -156% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -333 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -185% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -29%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -56% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -92%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -104% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 245% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -46% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 105% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Synthetic Biology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -133%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -156% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -333 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -185% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -29%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -56% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -92%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -104% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 245% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -46% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 105% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DNA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: Ginkgo Bioworks reported a significant miss on its third-quarter 2025 earnings per share and revenue. The company announced a loss of $1.45 per share, which was higher than analysts' estimates of a $1.24 per share loss, and its quarterly sales of $38.8 million fell short of the consensus estimate of $38.9 million. The GAAP net loss for Q3 2025 worsened to $(81) million, compared to $(56) million in Q3 2024.
2. Significant Revenue Decline: Total revenue for Q3 2025 sharply declined by 56% to $39 million, down from $89 million in the same period last year. This substantial drop was primarily due to a $45 million non-cash revenue component in the prior year from a terminated customer deal. Even excluding this one-time impact, total revenue still saw an 11% year-over-year decrease. Cell Engineering revenue also decreased by 61%, or slightly less when excluding the non-cash revenue from the previous year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DNA Return | - | - | -80% | 0% | -85% | -4% | -97% |
| Peers Return | 176% | 10% | -62% | -2% | -12% | -23% | -23% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DNA Win Rate | - | 50% | 25% | 42% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 34% | 28% | 47% | 43% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DNA Max Drawdown | - | - | -80% | -33% | -92% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -30% | -72% | -51% | -40% | -48% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TWST, CDXS, ABCL, RXRX, NTLA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/8/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DNA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -92.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1208.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
Ginkgo Bioworks's stock fell -92.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2021. A -92.4% loss requires a 1208.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DNA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.5% | 11.5% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -8.4% | -8.4% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.2% | 2.2% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.4% | 9.4% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.5% | 11.5% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -8.4% | -8.4% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.2% | 2.2% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.4% | 9.4% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ginkgo Bioworks
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 7.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 55 |
| Op Inc LTM | -290 |
| FCF LTM | -170 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -233 |
| CFO LTM | -135 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -181 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -5.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -9.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -442.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -448.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -3.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -200.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -166.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -275.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -263.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| P/S | 19.6 |
| P/EBIT | -3.8 |
| P/E | -3.9 |
| P/CFO | -4.9 |
| Total Yield | -26.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -18.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -37.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -65.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -46.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -137.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -20.8% | -29.2% | |
| 8/7/2025 | -8.7% | -4.2% | -16.9% |
| 5/6/2025 | 14.7% | 25.9% | 12.1% |
| 2/25/2025 | -11.5% | -21.1% | -35.4% |
| 11/12/2024 | 2.5% | -23.1% | 23.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | -17.3% | -8.8% | -44.5% |
| 2/29/2024 | -15.1% | -21.1% | -26.3% |
| 11/8/2023 | -15.4% | 4.7% | -8.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 7.6% | 17.6% |
| Median Negative | -12.9% | -21.1% | -21.6% |
| Max Positive | 22.7% | 25.9% | 37.0% |
| Max Negative | -20.8% | -29.2% | -44.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3292022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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