Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.83 | Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.83Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -724 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1667% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Precision Medicine. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Biopharmaceutical R&D. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -33%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -81% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1016%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1037% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 33% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Precision Medicine. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Biopharmaceutical R&D. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -724 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1667% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -33%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -81% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1016%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1037% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 33% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RXRX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The period requested, August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. However, based on available information for the approximate time frame leading up to and within this period, here are some key points concerning Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX): 1. 1. Q3 2025 Earnings Beat. Recursion Pharmaceuticals reported its Q3 2025 earnings on November 5, 2025, with an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.36, surpassing analysts' expectations of -$0.38. Despite this beat, the company's revenue of $5.2 million in Q3 2025 represented an 80.16% decrease from the same period in the prior year. 2. 2. Exscientia Merger and AI-Driven Platform Advancements. Recent discussions highlight the merger with Exscientia, completed by early 2025, as a potential game-changer for AI-driven drug discovery, aiming to blend Recursion's biology expertise with Exscientia's chemistry tools. The company has been focusing on its Recursion Operating System 2.0, emphasizing its capability to improve efficiency in drug discovery and development. Additionally, Recursion has been expanding its AI-driven capabilities, notably through a collaboration with MIT to advance the Boltz-2 AI model. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RXRX Return | - | - | -55% | 28% | -31% | -36% | -75% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -1% | -7% | -13% | -25% | 2% | -34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RXRX Win Rate | - | 12% | 33% | 42% | 33% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 21% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RXRX Max Drawdown | - | - | -71% | -41% | -42% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -10% | -17% | -24% | -25% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, BBOT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RXRX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -89.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 806.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, BBOT
In The Past
Recursion Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -89.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/13/2021. A -89.0% loss requires a 806.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RXRX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Recursion Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 7.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.2 |
| Rev LTM | 43 |
| Op Inc LTM | -93 |
| FCF LTM | -60 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 855 |
| CFO LTM | -60 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,040 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -11.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | -35.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -15.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -833.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -477.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -329.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -492.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -331.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -504.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -347.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.2 |
| P/S | 29.4 |
| P/EBIT | 9.7 |
| P/E | 12.1 |
| P/CFO | 11.0 |
| Total Yield | -14.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.1% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -31.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -71.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
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