Tearsheet

Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.83 | Market Cap: $2.2 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.83
Market Cap: $2.2 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -724 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1667%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Precision Medicine. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Biopharmaceutical R&D.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -33%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -81%
2   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1016%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1037%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37%
4   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 33%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Precision Medicine. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Biopharmaceutical R&D.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -724 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1667%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -33%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -81%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1016%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1037%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37%
7 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 33%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RXRX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The period requested, August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. However, based on available information for the approximate time frame leading up to and within this period, here are some key points concerning Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX): 1. 1. Q3 2025 Earnings Beat. Recursion Pharmaceuticals reported its Q3 2025 earnings on November 5, 2025, with an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.36, surpassing analysts' expectations of -$0.38. Despite this beat, the company's revenue of $5.2 million in Q3 2025 represented an 80.16% decrease from the same period in the prior year. 2. 2. Exscientia Merger and AI-Driven Platform Advancements. Recent discussions highlight the merger with Exscientia, completed by early 2025, as a potential game-changer for AI-driven drug discovery, aiming to blend Recursion's biology expertise with Exscientia's chemistry tools. The company has been focusing on its Recursion Operating System 2.0, emphasizing its capability to improve efficiency in drug discovery and development. Additionally, Recursion has been expanding its AI-driven capabilities, notably through a collaboration with MIT to advance the Boltz-2 AI model. 3.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RXRX Return---55%28%-31%-36%-75%
Peers Return6%-1%-7%-13%-25%2%-34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RXRX Win Rate-12%33%42%33%70% 
Peers Win Rate29%21%25%27%15%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RXRX Max Drawdown---71%-41%-42%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-17%-24%-25%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, BBOT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRXRXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-89.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven806.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, BBOT


In The Past

Recursion Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -89.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/13/2021. A -89.0% loss requires a 806.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)

Better Bets than Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RXRX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Recursion Pharmaceuticals

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RXRXVRTXACSBALPSAPRIBBOTMedian
NameRecursio.Vertex P.Acesis ALPS Aprinoia.BridgeBi. 
Mkt Price4.66463.13-1.07-11.077.87
Mkt Cap2.1118.4----60.2
Rev LTM4311,723---043
Op Inc LTM-724-92----93-93
FCF LTM-4503,337----60-60
FCF 3Y Avg-3542,064----855
CFO LTM-4413,718----60-60
CFO 3Y Avg-3392,419----1,040

Growth & Margins

RXRXVRTXACSBALPSAPRIBBOTMedian
NameRecursio.Vertex P.Acesis ALPS Aprinoia.BridgeBi. 
Rev Chg LTM-32.8%10.3%-----11.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.2%10.5%----16.8%
Rev Chg Q-80.9%11.0%-----35.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-32.7%2.7%-----15.0%
Op Mgn LTM-1,666.6%-0.8%-----833.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-980.6%26.2%-----477.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-659.5%1.0%-----329.3%
CFO/Rev LTM-1,016.2%31.7%-----492.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-686.3%23.1%-----331.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-1,037.0%28.5%-----504.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-715.3%19.8%-----347.8%

Valuation

RXRXVRTXACSBALPSAPRIBBOTMedian
NameRecursio.Vertex P.Acesis ALPS Aprinoia.BridgeBi. 
Mkt Cap2.1118.4----60.2
P/S50.28.5----29.4
P/EBIT-3.122.4----9.7
P/E-3.027.2----12.1
P/CFO-4.926.9----11.0
Total Yield-32.8%3.7%-----14.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-18.5%2.3%-----8.1%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.3-0.0-----0.2

Returns

RXRXVRTXACSBALPSAPRIBBOTMedian
NameRecursio.Vertex P.Acesis ALPS Aprinoia.BridgeBi. 
1M Rtn-14.3%8.7%----9.9%-9.9%
3M Rtn0.6%16.8%---12.5%12.5%
6M Rtn-5.1%3.9%-----0.6%
12M Rtn-34.3%1.3%-----16.5%
3Y Rtn-49.9%44.1%-----2.9%
1M Excs Rtn-14.3%8.7%----9.9%-9.9%
3M Excs Rtn-2.2%11.3%---4.5%4.5%
6M Excs Rtn-19.8%-10.8%-----15.3%
12M Excs Rtn-47.6%-14.6%-----31.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-117.2%-25.9%-----71.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity145,661,814
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202513.3%
Average Daily Volume37,489,816
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.89
Basic Shares Quantity446,988,046
Short % of Basic Shares32.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021323202210-K 12/31/2021