CureVac (CVAC)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $5.295 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
CureVac (CVAC)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $5.295Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 108% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -30% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -91% | |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 675% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 67% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include mRNA Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 16% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -30% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 675% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include mRNA Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 108% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -91% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 67% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CVAC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why CureVac's (CVAC) stock moved by approximately -2% between July 31, 2025, and November 12, 2025:
1. Disappointing Q2 2025 Financial Results.
CureVac announced its second-quarter 2025 financial results on August 15, 2025, reporting a loss of ($0.30) per share, which missed analysts' consensus estimates of ($0.15) per share. The company also reported revenues of $1.41 million, falling short of the consensus estimate of $4.27 million.
2. BioNTech's Public Exchange Offer for CureVac Shares.
On October 22, 2025, BioNTech commenced a public exchange offer to acquire all outstanding shares of CureVac. Under the terms, CureVac shareholders would receive approximately $5.46 in BioNTech American Depositary Shares for each CureVac share. The potential uncertainty or perceived valuation of this offer, which also carried conditions such as an 80% tender threshold, could have contributed to downward pressure on CureVac's stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CVAC Return | - | -58% | -82% | -30% | -19% | 55% | -93% |
| Peers Return | -15% | -9% | -6% | -3% | -3% | -17% | -44% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CVAC Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 17% | 42% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 18% | 15% | 23% | 31% | 22% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CVAC Max Drawdown | - | -58% | -83% | -34% | -45% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -13% | -14% | -15% | -30% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, APM, BBOT, GDTC, HIND.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CVAC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -96.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3120.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 148 days |
Compare to VRTX, APM, BBOT, GDTC, HIND
In The Past
CureVac's stock fell -96.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/27/2021. A -96.9% loss requires a 3120.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can CureVac Stock Really Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CVAC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -11.9% | -11.9% | -11.9% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -31.5% | -31.5% | -31.5% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.6% | 15.6% | -7.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -11.9% | -11.9% | -11.9% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -31.5% | -31.5% | -31.5% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.6% | 15.6% | -7.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CureVac
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 5.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 56.1 |
| Rev LTM | 511 |
| Op Inc LTM | -92 |
| FCF LTM | 196 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 955 |
| CFO LTM | 204 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,154 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 342.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 119.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -40.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -188.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 35.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -165.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 33.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -211.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 56.1 |
| P/S | 5.9 |
| P/EBIT | 15.1 |
| P/E | 18.2 |
| P/CFO | 17.8 |
| Total Yield | 9.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 45.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -35.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -96.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of biotechnological applications | 54 | 67 | |||
| Delivery of products | 0 | 1 | 9 | ||
| Delivery of research and development services combined with an intellectual property (IP) license | 80 | 47 | 6 | ||
| Research and development services considered distinct within the agreements | 23 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Total | 54 | 67 | 103 | 49 | 17 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8152025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5202025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4112025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8152024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5232024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4252024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8172023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5302023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4252023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11172022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8182022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5252022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4282022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 12172021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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