Molina Healthcare (MOH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $149.81 | Market Cap: $7.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Managed Health Care
Molina Healthcare (MOH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $149.81Market Cap: $7.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Managed Health Care
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Health Data Analytics, Telehealth Platforms, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Health Data Analytics, Telehealth Platforms, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MOH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**Molina Healthcare (MOH) experienced a significant stock price decline of approximately 17.6% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, primarily due to several key financial and operational challenges.**
1. Molina Healthcare reported a substantial miss in its third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and significantly lowered its full-year 2025 guidance. The company announced an adjusted EPS of $1.84, falling short of analyst expectations, and subsequently reduced its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance from an initial "no less than $19.00" (or $24.50) to approximately $14.00 per diluted share. This news alone caused the stock to drop by about 18% in after-hours trading following the Q3 earnings release on October 22, 2025.
2. The company faced increased medical costs, leading to a higher Medical Care Ratio (MCR) across its business segments. Molina Healthcare attributed its underperformance to a challenging medical cost trend environment, particularly in its Marketplace business. The consolidated MCR for the third quarter of 2025 rose to 92.6%, an increase from 89.2% in the prior year, indicating that a larger portion of premium revenue was being spent on medical services.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MOH Return | 57% | 50% | 4% | 9% | -19% | -50% | 8% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 31% | 15% | -7% | -18% | -17% | 3% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MOH Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 42% | 58% | 33% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 52% | 60% | 43% | 48% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MOH Max Drawdown | -21% | -5% | -21% | -21% | -24% | -54% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -7% | -11% | -20% | -24% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNH, CI, ELV, HUM, CNC. See MOH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MOH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 272 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 194 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 843 days | 1480 days |
Compare to UNH, CI, ELV, HUM, CNC
In The Past
Molina Healthcare's stock fell -29.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/26/2022. A -29.4% loss requires a 41.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MOH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Molina Healthcare
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid | 26,327 | 25,783 | 21,231 | 15,217 | |
| Medicare | 4,179 | 3,824 | 3,379 | 2,529 | |
| Marketplace | 2,023 | 2,296 | 3,091 | 1,677 | |
| Other operating revenues | 1,467 | ||||
| Other | 76 | 71 | 70 | 14 | |
| Health Plans | 16,815 | ||||
| Total | 34,072 | 31,974 | 27,771 | 19,423 | 16,829 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid | 2,973 | 2,981 | 2,322 | ||
| Other operating revenues | 1,467 | 1,020 | 846 | ||
| Marketplace | 499 | 290 | 399 | ||
| Medicare | 388 | 437 | 430 | ||
| Other | 9 | 11 | 14 | ||
| Other operating expenses | -3,763 | -3,566 | -2,991 | ||
| Total | 1,573 | 1,173 | 1,020 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2142022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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