Tearsheet

Molina Healthcare (MOH)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $162.35 | Market Cap: $8.5 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Managed Health Care

Molina Healthcare (MOH)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $162.35
Market Cap: $8.5 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Managed Health Care

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.6%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -100%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -46%
  Key risks
MOH key risks include [1] its extreme reliance on government-funded programs, Show more.
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -48%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Health Data Analytics, Telehealth Platforms, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.6%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -46%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -48%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Health Data Analytics, Telehealth Platforms, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -100%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%
6 Key risks
MOH key risks include [1] its extreme reliance on government-funded programs, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MOH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Lowered Full-Year 2025 Earnings Guidance. Molina Healthcare significantly reduced its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) outlook for the full year 2025, lowering the forecast from at least $19.00 to $14.00 per share on October 23, 2025. This announcement followed worse-than-expected third-quarter earnings and contributed to a substantial stock price decline of approximately 20%.

2. Adverse Medical Cost Trends. A primary driver for the reduced earnings outlook and subsequent stock decline was the adverse medical cost trends observed across all of Molina's business segments. The company specifically noted a disproportionate cost trend in its Marketplace business. Higher utilization of outpatient, professional, and in-home services in Medicare, along with increased utilization in behavioral health, pharmacy, and inpatient and outpatient services across Medicaid and Marketplace segments, put pressure on profitability.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MOH Return57%50%4%9%-19%-45%19%
Peers Return6%39%4%-8%-25%3%10%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MOH Win Rate67%75%42%58%33%42% 
Peers Win Rate50%53%52%42%45%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MOH Max Drawdown-21%-5%-21%-21%-24%-54% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-6%-13%-21%-30%-30% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CNC, UNH, ELV, CVS, HUM. See MOH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMOHS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-29.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven272 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-29.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven16 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-30.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven194 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-59.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven143.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven843 days1,480 days

Compare to UNH, CI, ELV, HUM, CNC


In The Past

Molina Healthcare's stock fell -29.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/26/2022. A -29.4% loss requires a 41.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Molina Healthcare (MOH)

Better Bets than Molina Healthcare (MOH)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MOH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Molina Healthcare

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MOHCNCUNHELVCVSHUMMedian
NameMolina H.Centene UnitedHe.Elevance.CVS Heal.Humana  
Mkt Price162.3038.87331.63345.9677.88260.28211.29
Mkt Cap8.519.1300.577.398.831.354.3
Rev LTM44,550185,857435,159194,820394,084126,362190,338
Op Inc LTM1,3231,09526,357-10,751-6,037
FCF LTM-5743,35617,3723,7676,2931,5473,562
FCF 3Y Avg5193,01718,9684,2956,4277323,656
CFO LTM-4614,06420,9584,9129,1092,0454,488
CFO 3Y Avg6193,76122,4435,5199,2771,4644,640

Growth & Margins

MOHCNCUNHELVCVSHUMMedian
NameMolina H.Centene UnitedHe.Elevance.CVS Heal.Humana  
Rev Chg LTM13.7%14.9%10.5%12.0%6.8%9.9%11.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg12.8%9.6%11.4%8.4%7.7%11.4%10.5%
Rev Chg Q11.0%18.2%12.2%12.3%7.8%11.1%11.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.6%4.3%2.9%2.9%1.9%2.6%2.8%
Op Mgn LTM3.0%0.6%6.1%-2.7%-2.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.0%1.7%7.7%-3.3%-3.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.8%-0.5%-1.2%-0.1%--0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-1.0%2.2%4.8%2.5%2.3%1.6%2.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.0%2.3%5.8%3.1%2.5%1.4%2.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.3%1.8%4.0%1.9%1.6%1.2%1.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.7%1.9%4.9%2.4%1.8%0.8%1.8%

Valuation

MOHCNCUNHELVCVSHUMMedian
NameMolina H.Centene UnitedHe.Elevance.CVS Heal.Humana  
Mkt Cap8.519.1300.577.398.831.354.3
P/S0.20.10.70.40.20.20.2
P/EBIT7.6-4.211.98.516.013.310.2
P/E11.4-3.317.813.0204.024.215.4
P/CFO-21.84.314.914.710.515.312.6
Total Yield8.8%-30.2%8.1%9.8%4.0%5.5%6.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%2.5%2.1%3.5%1.4%1.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.8%11.5%4.5%4.7%7.1%0.6%4.6%
D/E0.41.00.30.40.90.40.4
Net D/E-0.5-0.10.2-0.00.7-0.3-0.1

Returns

MOHCNCUNHELVCVSHUMMedian
NameMolina H.Centene UnitedHe.Elevance.CVS Heal.Humana  
1M Rtn18.6%4.8%4.2%5.1%-0.7%11.2%5.0%
3M Rtn-8.0%21.4%-2.3%12.7%6.1%-3.0%1.9%
6M Rtn-45.0%-29.5%9.4%-7.0%18.8%7.7%0.4%
12M Rtn-44.4%-32.8%-30.0%-3.7%84.4%12.8%-16.9%
3Y Rtn-51.5%-52.2%-33.1%-27.9%-8.5%-46.7%-39.9%
1M Excs Rtn17.9%4.1%3.4%4.4%-1.4%10.4%4.2%
3M Excs Rtn-11.0%19.5%-1.6%8.8%4.2%-2.7%1.3%
6M Excs Rtn-57.4%-41.9%-3.0%-19.4%6.4%-4.7%-12.0%
12M Excs Rtn-57.5%-45.7%-45.8%-18.6%53.4%-14.8%-32.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-122.5%-123.7%-104.3%-100.7%-84.3%-117.8%-111.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Medicaid26,32725,78321,23115,217 
Medicare4,1793,8243,3792,529 
Marketplace2,0232,2963,0911,677 
Other operating revenues1,467    
Other767170 14
Health Plans    16,815
Total34,07231,97427,77119,42316,829


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Medicaid2,9732,9812,322  
Other operating revenues1,4671,020846  
Marketplace499290399  
Medicare388437430  
Other91114  
Other operating expenses-3,763-3,566-2,991  
Total1,5731,1731,020  


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,386,502
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202513.7%
Average Daily Volume2,309,856
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.90
Basic Shares Quantity52,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/2025-17.5%-17.9%-31.1%
7/7/2025-2.7%-7.3%-33.8%
4/23/2025-5.5%-1.5%-6.7%
2/5/2025-10.1%-15.9%3.3%
10/23/202417.7%17.9%7.7%
7/24/202412.3%18.2%19.1%
4/24/2024-4.1%-7.8%-7.2%
2/7/20245.4%10.5%8.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101515
# Negative151010
Median Positive5.5%7.3%7.1%
Median Negative-2.7%-4.7%-7.4%
Max Positive17.7%18.2%19.1%
Max Negative-17.5%-17.9%-33.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022213202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021214202210-K 12/31/2021