Tearsheet

Molina Healthcare (MOH)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $149.81 | Market Cap: $7.9 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Managed Health Care

Molina Healthcare (MOH)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $149.81
Market Cap: $7.9 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Managed Health Care

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Health Data Analytics, Telehealth Platforms, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Health Data Analytics, Telehealth Platforms, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MOH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**Molina Healthcare (MOH) experienced a significant stock price decline of approximately 17.6% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, primarily due to several key financial and operational challenges.**

1. Molina Healthcare reported a substantial miss in its third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and significantly lowered its full-year 2025 guidance. The company announced an adjusted EPS of $1.84, falling short of analyst expectations, and subsequently reduced its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance from an initial "no less than $19.00" (or $24.50) to approximately $14.00 per diluted share. This news alone caused the stock to drop by about 18% in after-hours trading following the Q3 earnings release on October 22, 2025.

2. The company faced increased medical costs, leading to a higher Medical Care Ratio (MCR) across its business segments. Molina Healthcare attributed its underperformance to a challenging medical cost trend environment, particularly in its Marketplace business. The consolidated MCR for the third quarter of 2025 rose to 92.6%, an increase from 89.2% in the prior year, indicating that a larger portion of premium revenue was being spent on medical services.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MOH Return57%50%4%9%-19%-50%8%
Peers Return8%31%15%-7%-18%-17%3%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MOH Win Rate67%75%42%58%33%40% 
Peers Win Rate48%52%60%43%48%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MOH Max Drawdown-21%-5%-21%-21%-24%-54% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-7%-11%-20%-24%-32% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNH, CI, ELV, HUM, CNC. See MOH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMOHS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-29.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven272 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-29.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven16 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-30.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven194 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-59.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven143.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven843 days1480 days

Compare to UNH, CI, ELV, HUM, CNC


In The Past

Molina Healthcare's stock fell -29.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/26/2022. A -29.4% loss requires a 41.7% gain to breakeven.

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About Molina Healthcare (MOH)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MOH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Molina Healthcare

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MOHUNHCIELVHUMCNCMedian
NameMolina H.UnitedHe.Cigna Elevance.Humana Centene  
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Growth & Margins

MOHUNHCIELVHUMCNCMedian
NameMolina H.UnitedHe.Cigna Elevance.Humana Centene  
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Valuation

MOHUNHCIELVHUMCNCMedian
NameMolina H.UnitedHe.Cigna Elevance.Humana Centene  
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Returns

MOHUNHCIELVHUMCNCMedian
NameMolina H.UnitedHe.Cigna Elevance.Humana Centene  
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Medicaid26,32725,78321,23115,217 
Medicare4,1793,8243,3792,529 
Marketplace2,0232,2963,0911,677 
Other operating revenues1,467    
Other767170 14
Health Plans    16,815
Total34,07231,97427,77119,42316,829


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Medicaid2,9732,9812,322  
Other operating revenues1,4671,020846  
Marketplace499290399  
Medicare388437430  
Other91114  
Other operating expenses-3,763-3,566-2,991  
Total1,5731,1731,020  


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,856,991
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202522.8%
Average Daily Volume1,740,067
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.22
Basic Shares Quantity52,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022213202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021214202210-K 12/31/2021