Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $220.29 | Market Cap: $5.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $220.29Market Cap: $5.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -16% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Novel Anti-Infective Development, and Targeted Therapies. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -195 Mil | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 934%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 866% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is null, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -70% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 169% | ||
| Key risksCDTX key risks include [1] the potential failure of its announced acquisition, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Novel Anti-Infective Development, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -195 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 934%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 866% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is null, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -70% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 169% |
| Key risksCDTX key risks include [1] the potential failure of its announced acquisition, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CDTX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX) experienced a substantial increase in its stock value for the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, driven by a series of significant clinical advancements, strategic financial maneuvers, and increased market visibility.
1. Positive Phase 2b NAVIGATE Trial Results for CD388 (August 2025): The company announced promising top-line results from its Phase 2b NAVIGATE trial for CD388, a universal influenza drug candidate, on August 13, 2025. The trial demonstrated significant protection against influenza, providing a major positive catalyst for the stock.
2. Substantial Financing and Russell Index Inclusion (August 2025): Alongside the positive clinical data, Cidara secured approximately $402.5 million through an upsized public offering. Furthermore, the company's inclusion in the Russell 2000 and 3000 Indexes significantly enhanced its financial strength and increased its visibility among institutional investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CDTX Return | -48% | -36% | -40% | 5% | 69% | 719% | 187% |
| Peers Return | 25% | 37% | 7% | -16% | -7% | 6% | 53% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CDTX Win Rate | 25% | 25% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 55% | 47% | 42% | 43% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CDTX Max Drawdown | -55% | -41% | -66% | -10% | -36% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -6% | -24% | -28% | -19% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MRK, GILD, PFE, VIR, REGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CDTX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 603.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1166 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 144.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2018 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -89.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 836.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
Cidara Therapeutics's stock fell -85.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2021. A -85.8% loss requires a 603.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Cidara Therapeutics Earnings Notes | ||
| Cidara Therapeutics Stock 5-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 107% | Notification |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CDTX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cidara Therapeutics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 110.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 110.0 |
| Rev LTM | 21,667 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,479 |
| FCF LTM | 6,522 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6,334 |
| CFO LTM | 7,369 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,106 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 110.0 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/EBIT | 10.1 |
| P/E | 11.9 |
| P/CFO | 11.3 |
| Total Yield | 8.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 25.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 1.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 19.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -67.5% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.8% | 7.5% | 123.3% |
| 8/7/2025 | 0.4% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| 3/6/2025 | 0.2% | -5.3% | -30.4% |
| 11/7/2024 | 3.0% | 10.5% | 71.7% |
| 8/13/2024 | 5.8% | 6.6% | -6.6% |
| 4/22/2024 | -0.3% | 19.9% | 3.3% |
| 11/2/2023 | -6.3% | -12.9% | -11.7% |
| 8/3/2023 | -4.3% | -3.2% | -22.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 6.6% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -4.5% | -13.5% |
| Max Positive | 5.8% | 19.9% | 123.3% |
| Max Negative | -24.7% | -33.7% | -40.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3072022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Davarpanah Nicole Negar | Chief Medical Officer | 9152025 | Sell | 62.86 | 474 | 29,797 | 1,975,020 | Form |
| 1 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | 6302025 | Buy | 44.00 | 2,272,727 | 99,999,988 | 148,083,012 | Form | |
| 2 | Mineo Chrysa | 6042025 | Buy | 21.71 | 2,270 | 49,281 | 49,281 | Form | |
| 3 | Ward Shane | COO & CLO | 3132025 | Sell | 21.96 | 1,664 | 36,542 | 322,247 | Form |
| 4 | Tari Leslie | CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER | 3132025 | Sell | 21.96 | 1,773 | 38,940 | 356,124 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |