BKV (BKV)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $27.09 | Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
BKV (BKV)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $27.09Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 31x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 51x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Key risksBKV key risks include [1] substantial derivative losses contributing to recent net losses and [2] historically high operating expenses that have pressured profitability. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 31x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 51x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -14% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Key risksBKV key risks include [1] substantial derivative losses contributing to recent net losses and [2] historically high operating expenses that have pressured profitability. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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For the period between August 31, 2025, and December 23, 2025, BKV Corporation (BKV) experienced a stock movement, which can be attributed to several key developments:1. BKV Reported Strong Q3 2025 Earnings. The company announced its third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.50, significantly surpassing analysts' consensus estimate of $0.15.
2. Public Offering to Fund Strategic Acquisition. On December 1, 2025, BKV announced an underwritten public offering of 6 million shares of its common stock. The proceeds from this offering are intended to fund the cash portion of its previously announced acquisition of a controlling interest in BKV-BPP Power, LLC.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.6% change in BKV stock from 9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 16.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 9222025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.40 | 27.09 | 26.59% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 743.75 | 809.09 | 8.78% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.44 | 2.84 | 16.46% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 84.71 | 84.78 | -0.08% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.59% |
Market Drivers
9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKV | 26.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.7% | 32.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 0.9% | 65.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.9% change in BKV stock from 6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 20.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 6232025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.00 | 27.09 | 12.87% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 671.87 | 809.09 | 20.42% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.03 | 2.84 | -6.19% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 84.71 | 84.78 | -0.08% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.87% |
Market Drivers
6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKV | 12.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.4% | 28.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 3.7% | 58.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.9% change in BKV stock from 12/22/2024 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 34.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12222024 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.69 | 27.09 | 24.90% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 599.87 | 809.09 | 34.88% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.46 | 2.84 | 15.40% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 68.02 | 84.78 | -24.63% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.32% |
Market Drivers
12/22/2024 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKV | 24.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.9% | 47.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 8.6% | 61.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
12/23/2023 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKV | ||
| Market (SPY) | 47.7% | 47.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 10.2% | 58.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BKV Return | � | � | � | � | � | 12% | � |
| Peers Return | 27% | 104% | 50% | 7% | 32% | 5% | 476% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 113% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BKV Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 67% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 62% | 65% | 53% | 55% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BKV Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -55% | -2% | -3% | -15% | -10% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EQT, RRC, AR, CTRA, WMB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/22/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
BKV has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,201 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,858 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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- EOG Resources (EOG) focused on natural gas shale.
- A natural gas-centric Occidental Petroleum (OXY).
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- Bus Transportation: Operating a network of urban and suburban bus routes.
- Tram Transportation: Providing tram services across Budapest.
- Metro Transportation: Managing and operating the city's underground railway network.
- Trolleybus Transportation: Offering electric trolleybus services within the city.
- Suburban Railway (HÉV) Services: Operating commuter rail lines connecting Budapest with surrounding towns.
- Danube Boat Services: Providing seasonal public boat transport services on the Danube River.
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Major Customers of BKV (symbol: BKV)
BKV (Budapesti Közlekedési Vállalat) is primarily a public transportation company, and as such, it sells its services predominantly to individuals.
Categories of Individual Customers:
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1. Residents and Daily Commuters:
This category encompasses individuals who live and work in Budapest and rely on BKV's extensive network of buses, trams, trolleybuses, and metro lines for their regular daily commute, errands, and general movement within the city. They often utilize various forms of passes (e.g., monthly, annual) for cost-effective and convenient travel.
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2. Tourists and Visitors:
Individuals visiting Budapest for leisure, business, or other short-term purposes constitute another significant customer segment. These customers use BKV services to explore the city's attractions, travel between different districts, and reach their destinations. They typically purchase short-term passes (e.g., 24-hour, 72-hour, 7-day passes) or single tickets.
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3. Students, Seniors, and Discounted Fare Users:
BKV provides various discounted fares and passes for specific demographic groups, such as students, senior citizens, and individuals with disabilities. These users depend on BKV for affordable and accessible transportation, contributing to social inclusion and mobility for these segments of the population.
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Chris Kalnin, Chief Executive Officer
Christopher (Chris) Kalnin is the Chief Executive Officer and Founder of BKV Corporation, which he started in June 2015 with the vision to create a natural gas E&P company. Prior to founding BKV, he served as Vice President of Strategic Business Operations and Planning at Level 3 Communications (now Lumen). He also acted as a strategic advisor to the CEO at Thailand's national oil and gas company PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) and worked as a consultant with McKinsey & Company. Kalnin began his career as a Financial Analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston.
David Tameron, Chief Financial Officer
David Tameron is the Chief Financial Officer of BKV Corporation, a role he will assume on April 1, 2025. He previously served as the Company's Vice President, Strategic Finance and Investor Relations. Before joining BKV in August 2022, Tameron accumulated 25 years of experience in corporate banking leadership roles on Wall Street, including two decades as a leading Sell-Side Analyst in the exploration and production (E&P) sector. His prior roles at Wells Fargo & Company include Managing Director of Denver-based Corporate Banking and Managing Director of Institutional Equity Research. Tameron's background also includes time at ExxonMobil and in the private M&A sector.
Eric Jacobsen, President, Upstream
Lindsay Larrick, Chief Legal Officer
Ethan Ngo, Chief Development Officer
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Here are the key risks to BKV's business:
- Volatile Commodity Prices and Derivative Losses: BKV operates in an energy market highly susceptible to fluctuations in natural gas and NGL prices due to geopolitical forces, supply and demand dynamics, and overall market volatility. This inherent instability can significantly impact the company's revenue and profitability. Furthermore, BKV's exposure to market volatility also leads to substantial derivative losses, which have contributed to net losses in recent financial periods.
- Regulatory and Environmental Risks: As an energy company involved in hydrocarbon extraction, BKV faces considerable regulatory and environmental risks. These include the threat of evolving environmental protection regulations, stricter rules on emissions, and potential legal challenges related to its operational methods, such as hydraulic fracturing. Such regulatory changes or legal actions could lead to increased operational costs, restrict the company's ability to execute its business strategy, and potentially harm its reputation.
- High Operating Expenses: BKV Corporation has historically grappled with high operating expenses, including costs associated with lease operations, workovers, taxes, gathering, transportation, and depreciation. These significant costs have pressured the company's profitability and contributed to operating losses, as evidenced in past financial reports.
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The primary clear emerging threat to BKV Corporation, an upstream natural gas producer, is the accelerating global energy transition. This encompasses:
- Rapid deployment and increasing cost-effectiveness of renewable energy sources (such as solar and wind) and energy storage solutions. This trend directly threatens the long-term demand for natural gas in power generation and other sectors, as utilities and industries shift towards cleaner, increasingly competitive alternatives.
- Intensified regulatory and investor pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane, throughout the natural gas value chain. This leads to increasing operational costs, compliance burdens, and potential restrictions on future development, impacting the economic viability and social license of natural gas production.
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BKV (NYSE: BKV) operates in four primary business lines: natural gas upstream (production), natural gas midstream (gathering, processing, and transportation), power generation, and carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS). The addressable markets for BKV's main products and services are as follows: * Natural Gas Upstream (Production): The U.S. natural gas market was valued at approximately $454.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $577.9 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% between 2025 and 2032. BKV is recognized as a top 20 gas-weighted natural gas producer in the United States. * Natural Gas Midstream (Gathering, Processing, and Transportation): The global oil and gas midstream market was valued at approximately $835.7 billion in 2024 and is forecast to grow to $1,273.2 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.8% during the 2025-2033 period. North America holds the dominant share of this market, accounting for 42%. The natural gas segment within the midstream market is experiencing the fastest growth, with a CAGR of 5.7%. * Power Generation: BKV's power generation assets serve the ERCOT market in Texas. In 2025, the total energy demand for ERCOT is projected to be 500 terawatthours (TWh), with a peak demand of 88.3 GW. Natural gas-fired generation constituted 43% of ERCOT's electricity supply during the first nine months of 2025. * Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Sequestration (CCUS): The global Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage market size was estimated at $6.9 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach approximately $37.5 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.5% from 2024 to 2033. North America is a dominant region in the global CCUS market.AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected drivers of future revenue growth for BKV over the next 2-3 years include:
- Increased Natural Gas Production through Organic Growth and Strategic Acquisitions: BKV is focused on expanding its upstream natural gas production. The company has consistently exceeded production guidance, with full-year 2025 production guidance raised to 800 MMcfe/day. A significant driver is the acquisition of Bedrock Energy Partners' Barnett Shale assets, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, which adds approximately 108 MMcfe/d of production and nearly 1 Tcfe of 1P reserves. BKV aims for a 2-3% production growth target.
- Expansion of the Power Generation Business: BKV is actively growing its power generation segment, particularly capitalizing on high demand in the ERCOT market, driven by trends such as cloud computing and generative AI. The company anticipates a gross 2025 adjusted EBITDA range of $130 million to $170 million from its Power Joint Venture (JV). Furthermore, BKV's plan to increase its ownership in the BKV-BPP Power joint venture from 50% to 75%, expected to close in Q1 2026, will enhance strategic control and consolidate the JV's financial results, further accelerating growth in this sector.
- Growth and Commercialization of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Sequestration (CCUS) Initiatives: BKV is making significant strides in its CCUS business, aligning with the growing demand for low-carbon and decarbonized energy solutions. The company secured a major $500 million investment agreement with Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, with potential expansion to $1 billion, to accelerate its CCUS growth. BKV is targeting a 1 million tons per year CO2 injection by 2027, and its Cotton Cove project is slated for first injection in the first half of 2026. The Barnett Zero Project has already sequestered over 212,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent since late 2023.
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Share Issuance
- BKV Corporation completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on September 26, 2024, raising $270 million in proceeds, with $253.8 million in net proceeds to the company after underwriting discounts and commissions.
- The number of shares outstanding for BKV Corporation increased by 24.78% in one year, reaching 84.71 million shares as of November 2025.
- As part of the acquisition of Bedrock Energy Partners' Barnett Shale assets in August 2025, the purchase price included up to $110.0 million, or approximately 5.2 million shares, of BKV common stock.
Inbound Investments
- In May 2025, BKV Corporation announced a strategic carbon capture joint venture with Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) that included a $500 million investment to accelerate CCUS projects.
Outbound Investments
- In September 2025, BKV Corporation successfully acquired Bedrock Energy Partners' Barnett Shale assets for approximately $370 million, which included 97,000 net acres and midstream infrastructure.
- BKV Corporation plans to increase its ownership in the BKV-BPP Power joint venture to 75% by acquiring an additional 25% stake from Banpu Power US Corporation, a transaction valued at approximately $376 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Full-year 2024 accrued capital expenditures were approximately $118 million, with $82 million allocated to development and $35 million to carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS) and other initiatives, marking a 28% year-over-year reduction.
- For the first quarter of 2025, capital expenditures totaled $18.0 million, with $13.1 million directed towards development capital and $4.5 million towards CCUS.
- The total capital expenditure guidance for 2025 is set between $320 million and $380 million, including approximately $220 million for upstream development and $90 million for CCUS.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| BKV Earnings Notes | |||
| BKV Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| Why BKV Stock Moved: BKV Stock Has Gained 12% Since 2024 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Revenues | |||
| BKV (BKV) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| BKV Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| BKV (BKV) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| BKV (BKV) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| BKV (BKV) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| BKV (BKV) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 18th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to BKV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.2% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
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| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.0% | 27.0% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.5% | -5.5% | -7.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
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Peer Comparisons for BKV
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.9 |
| Rev LTM | 5,980 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,492 |
| FCF LTM | 1,314 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,285 |
| CFO LTM | 2,608 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,428 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 24.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -9.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 24.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 43.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 45.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $27.09 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/26/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -6.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $25.11 | $19.80 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 7.9% | 36.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 55.2% | 48.9% |
| Downside Capture | 125.84 | 115.81 |
| Upside Capture | 225.08 | 120.09 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 32.6% | 47.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.78 | 1.62 | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.19 | 0.13 |
| Up Beta | -1.07 | -1.01 | -0.30 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 0.18 |
| Down Beta | 3.21 | 2.16 | 2.39 | 1.81 | 1.68 | -0.28 |
| Up Capture | 229% | 275% | 136% | 122% | 125% | 19% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 33 | 68 | 129 | 156 |
| Down Capture | 14% | 173% | 97% | 104% | 106% | 70% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 19 | 29 | 55 | 116 | 134 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
nullBased On 5-Year Data
nullBased On 10-Year Data
nullReturns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | 0.9% | 10.1% | 14.1% |
| 8/12/2025 | 6.9% | 6.8% | 10.4% |
| 5/9/2025 | 6.7% | 17.6% | 17.5% |
| 2/26/2025 | -5.1% | -15.9% | -8.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 6.7% | 10.1% | 14.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -15.9% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 6.9% | 17.6% | 17.5% |
| Max Negative | -5.1% | -15.9% | -8.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11102025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 7052024 | S-1/A 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 9272024 | 424B4 12/31/2023 |
| 6302023 | 10062023 | S-1/A 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 6262023 | S-1/A 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1122024 | S-1/A 12/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 6272023 | S-1/A 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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