Newmont Stock’s Winning Streak May Not Be Over Yet
We think Newmont (NEM) stock might be a good investment candidate. Why? Because you get strong margin, low-debt capital structure, and strong momentum – with room to run as the stock is meaningfully below its 52-week high.
There Are Several Things In Favor Of NEM Stock
NEM stock can run given its good fundamentals and the fact that it is 14% below its 52-week high.
Recent Q3 2025 results show operating margins benefiting from record gold prices and operational efficiencies reducing all-in sustaining costs by 3%. Newmont achieved near-zero net debt in Q3 2025, retiring $2 billion with a 0.17 debt-to-equity ratio. New low-cost gold from Ahafo North boosts future profitability. While 2026 production guides to the lower end of 2025 forecasts, the stock rallied 26% over three months to mid-January 2026. Despite a recent 7-day dip, a 7.26% rebound is forecast for the next five days, driven by global gold demand.
And Its Fundamentals Look Good
- Long-Term Profitability: About 32.6% operating cash flow margin and 23.9% operating margin last 3-year average.
- Strong Momentum: Currently in the top 10th percentile of stocks in terms of “trend strength” – our proprietary momentum metric.
- Revenue Growth: Newmont saw revenue growth of 26.6% LTM and 23.9% last 3-year average, but this is not a growth story
- Room To Run: Despite its momentum, NEM stock is trading 14% below its 52-week high.
Below is a quick comparison of NEM fundamentals with S&P medians.
| NEM | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Materials | – |
| Industry | Gold | – |
| PS Ratio | 5.8 | 3.3 |
| PE Ratio | 17.2 | 24.4 |
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| LTM* Revenue Growth | 26.6% | 6.4% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 23.9% | 5.6% |
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| LTM* Operating Margin | 43.5% | 18.8% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 23.9% | 18.3% |
| LTM* Op Cash Flow Margin | 42.9% | 20.6% |
| 3Y Average Op Cash Flow Margin | 32.6% | 20.1% |
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| DE Ratio | 4.6% | 19.6% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months
But Be Wary Of The Risks
While NEM stock may be a compelling investment opportunity, it’s always helpful to be aware of a stock’s history of drawdown. NEM fell 56% in the Dot-Com crash and 61% during the Global Financial Crisis. The 2022 inflation shock also took a big bite, with a 58% drop. Even the less severe downturns like 2018 and the Covid pandemic still wiped out around 25% from peak to trough. Solid fundamentals don’t make it immune. When the market sells off hard, NEM experiences sharp declines too. But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read NEM Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
If you want to see more details, read Buy or Sell NEM Stock.
NEM Is Just One of Several Such Stocks
You could also check out:
We chose these stocks using the following criteria:
- Greater than $2 Bil in market cap
- High operating or (cash flow from operations) margins
- No instance of very large revenue decline in the past 5 years
- Low-debt capital structure
- Strong momentum
A portfolio that was built starting 12/31/2016 with stocks that fulfill the criteria above would have performed as follows:
- Average 12-month forward returns of nearly 15%
- 12-month win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of about 60%
The Right Way To Invest Is Through Portfolios
Individual picks can be volatile but staying invested is what matters. A diversified portfolio helps you stay the course, capture upside and reduce downside
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.