HCA Stock Surges 8.9% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Strong Earnings And Guidance
HCA Healthcare (HCA) – a provider of hospital-based inpatient and emergency healthcare services – hit 5-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 8.9%. The company market cap has surged by about $9.5 Bil over the last 5 days, and currently stands at $115 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 8.3% compared to 1.9% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] Q4 2025 Earnings Beat & Bullish 2026 Outlook
- Q4 Adj EPS of $8.01 vs $7.46 Estimate [5]
- Above-Consensus 2026 EPS Guidance [1, 5]
- Impact: Shares Gapped Up Over 11% [1, 5, 12], Multiple Analyst Price Target Hikes [3, 4]
[2] New $10B Share Buyback Authorization
- Board Authorized Repurchase Program [5, 14]
- Dividend Increased to $0.78 Per Share [14]
- Impact: Increased Investor Confidence, Provides Support For Share Price
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is a near-equal mix of good and bad in HCA stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. This is aligned with the stock’s Moderate valuation because of which we think it is Fairly Priced (For details, see Buy or Sell HCA).
But here is the real interesting point.
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Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for HCA stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | HCA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 7.1% | 0.4% |
| 5D (Current Streak) | 8.9% | 2.7% |
| 1M (21D) | 6.7% | 0.7% |
| 3M (63D) | 13.3% | 2.8% |
| YTD 2026 | 8.3% | 1.9% |
| 2025 | 56.7% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 11.8% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 13.8% | 24.2% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has HCA behaved after prior drops? See HCA Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 55 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 62 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 22 | 35 |
| 4D | 10 | 23 |
| 5D | 17 | 0 |
| 6D | 3 | 4 |
| 7D or more | 3 | 0 |
| Total >=3 D | 55 | 62 |
Key Financials for HCA Healthcare (HCA)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $65.0 Bil | $70.6 Bil |
| Operating Income | $9.6 Bil | $10.5 Bil |
| Net Income | $5.2 Bil | $5.8 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ1 | 2025 FQ2 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $18.3 Bil | $18.6 Bil |
| Operating Income | $2.9 Bil | $3.0 Bil |
| Net Income | $1.6 Bil | $1.7 Bil |
While HCA stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.