COIN Stock Falls -13% In 6-Day Spree On Analyst Revenue Concerns
Coinbase Global (COIN) – a crypto financial infrastructure and retail account provider – hit 6-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to a -13%. The company market cap has crashed by about $8.1 Bil over the last 6 days, and currently stands at $57 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 6.8% compared to 1.9% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Compass Point Price Target Cut and Negative Outlook
- Price target lowered to $190 from $230
- Expects revenue miss on weaker trading and stablecoin income
- Impact: Sustained selling pressure, Increased investor concern
[2] Weakening Institutional Crypto Demand
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shed over $1.7 billion since mid-January
- Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index at lowest level since early 2023
- Impact: Broad crypto market sell-off, Negative pressure on crypto-exposed equities
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is not much to fear in COIN stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. This is aligned with the stock’s High valuation because of which we think it is Fairly Priced (For details, see Buy or Sell COIN).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -13% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for COIN stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | COIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -1.2% | 0.4% |
| 6D (Current Streak) | -12.6% | 0.6% |
| 1M (21D) | -12.1% | 0.7% |
| 3M (63D) | -40.5% | 2.8% |
| YTD 2026 | -6.8% | 1.9% |
| 2025 | -8.9% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 42.8% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 391.4% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: COIN Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 55 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 62 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 22 | 35 |
| 4D | 10 | 23 |
| 5D | 17 | 0 |
| 6D | 3 | 4 |
| 7D or more | 3 | 0 |
| Total >=3 D | 55 | 62 |
Key Financials for Coinbase Global (COIN)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $3.1 Bil | $6.6 Bil |
| Operating Income | $-53.7 Mil | $2.2 Bil |
| Net Income | $94.9 Mil | $2.6 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ1 | 2025 FQ2 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $2.0 Bil | $1.5 Bil |
| Operating Income | $740.2 Mil | $-33.4 Mil |
| Net Income | $65.6 Mil | $1.4 Bil |
The losing streak COIN stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.