How Will Newmont Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Newmont (NYSE:NEM) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, October 23, 2025. We expect the company to post quarterly revenues of around $5.2 billion, driven by higher realized gold and copper prices alongside stable production volumes across key sites. However, margins may face modest pressure from increased labor and energy costs as well as ongoing inflation in mining consumables. While stronger precious metal prices should support operating cash flow, elevated sustaining capital and integration expenses could weigh on near-term profitability. Continued progress on efficiency initiatives and disciplined cost management will be key to margin recovery, while growth from new projects and rising gold prices provide a solid backdrop for earnings momentum over the next few quarters.

The company has $104 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $21 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $8.0 Bil in operating profits and net income of $6.3 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.

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There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 105% since its inception.

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Newmont’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 16 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 5 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 31% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 33% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 5 positive returns = 2.0%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -4.6%

1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Newmont, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and clocked >105% returns since inception.

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