Strong and Rising: Newmont Stock May Have More Upside
Newmont (NEM) stock might be a good candidate to ride the momentum. Why? Because you get strong margin, low-debt capital structure, and strong momentum. Here is some data.
- Revenue Growth: Newmont saw revenue growth of 26.6% LTM and 23.9% last 3 year average, but this is not a growth story
- Long-Term Profitability: About 32.6% operating cash flow margin and 23.9% operating margin last 3 year average.
- Strong Momentum: Currently in top 10 percentile of stocks in terms of “trend strength” – our proprietary momentum metric.
- Room To Run: Despite its momentum, NEM stock is trading 17% below its 52-week high.
While revenue growth helps, this selection is all about riding momentum with quality – which we judge by margins (reflective of pricing power / strong business model) and capital structure (not too debt heavy).
As a quick background, Newmont engages in gold production and exploration, also exploring copper, silver, zinc, and lead, with substantial proven gold reserves and extensive land holdings.
| NEM | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Materials | – |
| Industry | Gold | – |
| PS Ratio | 4.2 | 3.2 |
| PE Ratio | 12.5 | 23.7 |
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| LTM* Revenue Growth | 26.6% | 5.6% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 23.9% | 5.3% |
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| LTM* Operating Margin | 43.5% | 18.8% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 23.9% | 18.2% |
| LTM* Op Cash Flow Margin | 42.9% | 20.3% |
| 3Y Average Op Cash Flow Margin | 32.6% | 19.8% |
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| DE Ratio | 6.3% | 21.0% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months
- Strong and Rising: Newmont Stock May Have More Upside
- Why Gold Can Stay Stuck for Years — But Stocks Bounce Back Faster
- S&P 500 Movers | Winners: GM, HAL, WBD | Losers: NEM, ALB, VST
- How Will Newmont Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
- S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High
- Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High
But do these numbers tell the full story? Read Buy or Sell NEM Stock to see if Newmont still has an edge that holds up under the hood.
Markets reward quality over time, and that’s what High Quality Portfolio captures.
Stocks Like These Can Outperform. Here Is Data
Here is how we make the selection: We consider stocks with > $2 Bil in market cap, high operating and cfo (cash flow from operations) margin, no instance of very large revenue decline in the past 5 years, low-debt capital structure, and strong momentum as defined by our proprietry momentum metric.
Below are statistics for stocks with this selection strategy applied between 12/31/2016 and 6/30/2025.
- Average 12-month forward returns of nearly 15%
- 12-month win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of about 60%
But Consider The Risk
That said, NEM isn’t immune to big sell-offs. It plunged 56% in the Dot-Com crash, 61% during the Global Financial Crisis, and 58% in the Inflation Shock. Even the milder dips — like 2018 and the Covid pandemic — wiped out around 25-29%. Strong fundamentals matter, but when volatility hits, big drops happen regardless.
But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read NEM Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.