Newmont Stock May Still Have Room to Run

Newmont (NEM) stock might be a good candidate to ride the momentum. Why? Because you get strong margin, low-debt capital structure, and strong momentum.

Here is what’s going well for the company. Strong margins reflect Q3 2025 gold prices averaging $3,539 per ounce and improved cost guidance. A near-zero net debt of $12 million, from $2 billion retired in Q3 and $3.5 billion in asset sales, underpins a low-debt structure. Momentum is fueled by record $4.5 billion free cash flow year-to-date and the new Ahafo North mine’s production. Though Q3 gold production dipped from planned activities, the stock surged over 123% annually.

So what does this translate to? Here are some numbers.

• Revenue Growth: Newmont saw revenue growth of 26.6% LTM and 23.9% last 3 year average, but this is not a growth story
• Long-Term Profitability: About 32.6% operating cash flow margin and 23.9% operating margin last 3 year average.
• Strong Momentum: Currently in top 10 percentile of stocks in terms of “trend strength” – our proprietary momentum metric.
• Room To Run: Despite its momentum, NEM stock is trading 8.7% below its 52-week high.

While revenue growth helps, this selection is all about riding momentum with quality – which we judge by margins (reflective of pricing power / strong business model) and capital structure (not too debt heavy).

*LTM: Last Twelve Months

If you want to see more details, read Buy or Sell NEM Stock. Nevertheless, asset allocation is a smarter path than stock picking. The asset allocation strategies of Trefis’ Boston-based, wealth management partner yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. And now, Trefis High Quality Portfolio is part of it.

Stocks Like These Can Outperform. Here Is Data

Here is how we make the selection: We consider stocks with > $2 Bil in market cap, high operating and cfo (cash flow from operations) margin, no instance of very large revenue decline in the past 5 years, low-debt capital structure, and strong momentum as defined by our proprietry momentum metric.

Below are statistics for stocks with this selection strategy applied between 12/31/2016 and 6/30/2025.

• Average 12-month forward returns of nearly 15%
• 12-month win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of about 60%

In summary, we select stocks that that have momentum and generate cash – so useful to consider, what is the risk?

Risk Quantified

NEM hasn’t been immune to big drops. It fell about 56% in the Dot-Com crash and 61% during the Global Financial Crisis. The inflation shock in 2022 wiped out nearly 58%. Even the smaller sell-offs — like 2018 and the Covid pandemic — dragged it down around 25% or more. Solid fundamentals matter, but when the market gets rocky, NEM still takes hits.

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read NEM Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.