Dish Network stock (NASDAQ:DISH) has gained by about 5% over the last five trading days and also remains up by about 5% over the last month (21 trading days). While the broader markets have gained over the past month, there are a couple of factors that have likely helped Dish stock. Although Dish’s Q3 2022 results were mixed, with revenue falling short of expectations, profits were stronger than expected driven partly by lower costs. The company also added a net of 30,000 pay-TV subscribers, led by its Sling streaming operations although the satellite business continued to lose subscribers. Dish’s wireless business also appears to be turning the corner, adding 1,000 net subs compared to a year-ago net decline of 121,000 subs when T-Mobile began shutting down its CDMA network. The number should rise going forward, as Dish launches its own 5G network in early 2023.
However, now that Dish stock has seen a gain of about 5% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a decline imminent? Going by historical performance, there is only a 44% chance of a rise in DISH stock over the next month. Out of 698 instances in the last 10 years when DISH Network (DISH) stock saw a trailing 21-day rise of 5.3% or more, 306 of those instances resulted in DISH stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (21 trading days). This historical pattern reflects 306 out of 698, or about a 44% chance of rise in DISH Network stock over the next month. See our analysis on Dish Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years data
- After moving 5% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 51% of the occasions.
- After moving -5.9% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 55% of the occasions
- After moving 5.3% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 44% of the occasions.
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|S&P 500 Return||4%||-16%||80%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||4%||-19%||221%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/26/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016