The stock price of satellite TV and wireless services provider Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) has declined by almost 35% over the past month, compared to the S&P 500 which remains down by about 8% over the same period. The recent decline follows the company’s weak Q1 2022 results, which missed analyst estimates on both revenue and earnings amid higher than expected pay-TV subscriber losses. Dish’s revenues for the quarter declined by almost 4% year-over-year to around $4.33 billion, while earnings fell 31% from a year earlier to $0.68 per share. Dish lost about 462,000 pay-TV subscribers, taking its total pay-TV base to just about 10.24 million. Moreover, the ongoing 5G wireless network build-out is also hurting Dish’s cash flows, with the company burning about $191 million in cash over Q1, compared to free cash flows of $729 million last year. Investors aren’t taking too well to the declining sales and rising cash burn, considering rising interest rates and the tightening monetary environment, which has been causing a broader market rotation into stocks with a higher cash flow yield.
However, now that DISH stock has seen a decline of about 35% over the last month, will it continue its downward trajectory in the near term, or is a rally imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a strong chance of a rise in DISH stock over the next month. Out of 17 instances in the last ten years that DISH stock saw a twenty-one-day decline of 35% or more, 17 of them resulted in DISH stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). While nothing is certain, this implies a very strong chance of rise in Dish stock over the next month based on historical data. See our analysis on Dish Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.
While DISH stock has seen a big decline recently, there are several peers in its sector that also look like a compelling bet. Check out how Dish Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
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Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years’ data
- After moving -6% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 53% of the occasions.
- After moving -27% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 18% of the occasions
- After moving -35% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 100% of the occasions.
This pattern suggests that DISH stock has a strong chance of moving upward in the next month.
We value Dish Network stock at about $38 per share, marking a potential upside of about 70% from the current market price. See our analysis on Dish Network Valuation: Expensive Or Cheap for more details.
|S&P 500 Return||-3%||-16%||80%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-4%||-20%||218%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/14/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016