Dish Network stock (NASDAQ:DISH) has rallied by about 11% over the last five trading days and also remains up by about 6% over the last month (21 trading days). While the broader markets have rallied over the last month, there are a couple of factors that have likely helped Dish stock. Firstly, Dish’s Q2 2022 earnings were slightly better than expected although the company lost 257,000 pay-TV subscribers and about 210,000 wireless subscribers. Dish is also making progress toward launching its new nationwide wireless service, Boost Infinite, as it started accepting customer sign-ups last week, with a launch slated for Q4. This means that Dish should finally be able to better monetize its 5G network, which it has been building out for some time now. Moreover, investors have also been buying into beaten down value stocks and this has also likely helped Dish stock, which remains down by 41% year-to-date and currently trades at under 8x projected 2022 earnings.
However, now that Dish stock has seen a gain of about 6% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a decline imminent? Going by historical performance, there is only a 45% chance of a rise in DISH stock over the next month. Out of 610 instances in the last ten years that Dish stock saw a twenty-one-day rise of 6% or more, 274 of them resulted in the stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 274 out of 610, or a 45% chance of a rise in DISH stock over the coming month, implying a negative near-term outlook for the stock. See our analysis on Dish Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years data
- After moving 11% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 43% of the occasions.
- After moving 2.7% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 51% of the occasions
- After moving 6% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 45% of the occasions.
With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, Dish has fallen 41% this year. Can it drop more? See how low can DISH stock go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.
|S&P 500 Return||0%||-13%||85%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||3%||-10%||253%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/7/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016