Dish Network stock (NASDAQ:DISH) has declined by about 8% over the last week (about five trading days) and has remained flat over the past month of about (21 trading days). This compares to the broader markets that have gained 4% over the last month. There are a couple of factors that explain Dish stock’s recent decline. Firstly, the company’s pay TV subscriber base, which includes both its Dish TV satellite and Sling TV Internet-based users, contracted by 270,000 over Q4 2022 to 9.75 million users. This marks a reversal from Q3 when the company added a net of 30,000 subscribers. Investors also probably expect things to remain challenging in the near term, as the U.S. economy is increasingly likely to go into a recession, with the Federal Reserve continuing with its path of interest rate hikes. This could present a problem for Dish, given its high financial leverage (roughly $20 billion in debt), and declining core pay-TV operations.
However, now that Dish stock has been roughly flat over the past month, how is it likely to trend in the near-term.? Going by historical performance, there is roughly an equal chance of a rise or decline in DISH stock over the next month. There were 1291 instances in the last 10 years when DISH Network (DISH) stock saw a trailing 21-day rise of 0.2% or more 634 of those instances resulted in DISH stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (21 trading days). This historical pattern reflects 634 out of 1291, or about a 49% chance of a rise in DISH Network stock over the next month. See our analysis on Dish Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using the last ten years’ data
- After moving -8% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 53% of the occasions.
- After moving -7.5% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 55% of the occasions
- After moving 0.2% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 49% of the occasions.
|S&P 500 Return||3%||3%||77%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||8%||8%||239%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/20/2023
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016