How Will Brown & Brown Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Brown & Brown (NYSE:BRO) is set to report its earnings on Monday, April 27, 2026. The company has $23 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $5.8 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.5 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.1 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Brown & Brown’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 39% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 7 positive returns = 1.6%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -2.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/26/2026 | -6.9% | -10.4% | -11.8% |
| 10/27/2025 | -6.1% | -11.3% | -8.1% |
| 7/28/2025 | -10.4% | -9.6% | -6.2% |
| 4/28/2025 | -6.0% | -3.9% | -3.4% |
| 1/27/2025 | -2.6% | -2.1% | 6.6% |
| 10/28/2024 | 1.6% | 2.0% | 9.9% |
| 7/22/2024 | 5.2% | 5.9% | 10.6% |
| 4/22/2024 | 0.5% | -1.2% | 9.1% |
| 1/23/2024 | -1.7% | -0.8% | 6.8% |
| 10/23/2023 | 4.4% | 3.1% | 11.2% |
| 4/25/2023 | -0.3% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| 1/24/2023 | 0.4% | -0.3% | -3.6% |
| 7/25/2022 | -1.1% | 1.3% | 4.4% |
| 4/26/2022 | -1.5% | -8.7% | -14.3% |
| 1/24/2022 | -0.3% | 2.6% | -0.4% |
| 10/25/2021 | -3.9% | -6.9% | -0.8% |
| 7/26/2021 | 0.7% | -0.3% | 6.2% |
| 4/26/2021 | 4.2% | 6.6% | 4.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 7 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 3.0% | 6.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -3.9% | -4.9% |
| Max Positive | 5.2% | 6.6% | 11.2% |
| Max Negative | -10.4% | -11.3% | -14.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 37.2% | 18.6% | 2.8% |
| 3Y History | 40.6% | 46.5% | 17.3% |
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