TechnipFMC (FTI)
Market Price (5/30/2026): $68.57 | Market Cap: $27.4 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
TechnipFMC (FTI)
Market Price (5/30/2026): $68.57Market Cap: $27.4 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.7 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Offshore Wind Development, Hydrogen Economy, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Subsea Cable Infrastructure, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 17x Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 120% Key risksFTI key risks include potential [1] cost overruns, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Offshore Wind Development, Hydrogen Economy, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Subsea Cable Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 17x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 120% |
| Key risksFTI key risks include potential [1] cost overruns, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
TechnipFMC (FTI) stock has gained about 25% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong First Quarter 2026 Financial Performance: TechnipFMC reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.64 in Q1 2026, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $0.57. The company's total revenue for the quarter reached $2.49 billion, marking an 11.6% increase year-over-year. This robust financial performance provided positive momentum for the stock.
2. Exceptional Subsea Segment Growth and Outlook: The Subsea segment was a primary driver of the company's success, with its revenue climbing to $2.21 billion and operating profit increasing by 29.3% sequentially in Q1 2026. The segment's adjusted EBITDA margin improved to a notable 20%. Management reaffirmed its target of securing $10 billion in Subsea orders for 2026 and highlighted an expanding list of approximately $30 billion in Subsea opportunities over the next 24 months.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.0% change in FTI stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 55.64 | 68.42 | 23.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,783 | 10,192 | 4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.1 | 25.3 | 5.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 410 | 400 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTI | 23.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.6% | 18.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 11.0% | 39.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 65.9% change in FTI stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 41.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.24 | 68.42 | 65.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,783 | 10,192 | 4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.9 | 25.3 | 41.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 410 | 400 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 65.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTI | 65.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.5% | 20.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 29.7% | 47.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 144.3% change in FTI stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 77.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 28.01 | 68.42 | 144.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,275 | 10,192 | 9.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.9% | 10.6% | 19.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.3 | 25.3 | 77.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 421 | 400 | 5.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 144.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTI | 144.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 38.0% | 21.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | 44.3% | 49.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 410.0% change in FTI stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 210.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.42 | 68.42 | 410.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,862 | 10,192 | 48.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.9 | 2.7 | 210.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 442 | 400 | 10.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 410.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTI | 410.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.0% | 44.0% |
| Sector (XLE) | 45.8% | 63.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FTI Return | -37% | 106% | 66% | 45% | 55% | 52% | 635% |
| Peers Return | 25% | 58% | 6% | -6% | 5% | 43% | 199% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FTI Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 67% | 58% | 75% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 62% | 48% | 40% | 63% | 72% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FTI Max Drawdown | -57% | -37% | -21% | -20% | -29% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -44% | -31% | -28% | -33% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SLB, BKR, HAL, NOV, OII. See FTI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FTI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -70.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 243.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1206 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2046 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 62 days |
In The Past
TechnipFMC's stock fell -24.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 32.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | FTI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -70.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 243.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1206 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2046 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -63.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 171.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3645 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 123 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
TechnipFMC's stock fell -24.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 32.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About TechnipFMC (FTI)
AI Analysis | Feedback
A General Electric for the oil and gas industry.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Subsea Production and Processing Systems: Equipment designed for extracting and processing oil and gas underwater.
- Subsea Umbilicals, Risers, and Flowlines (SURF): Key components connecting subsea equipment to facilities and transporting hydrocarbons.
- Drilling and Completion Systems: Equipment used for land and shallow water well drilling and finishing.
- Surface Wellheads and Production Trees: Systems installed at the wellhead to control oil and gas flow.
- iComplete: A digitally enabled pressure control system for wells.
- Fracturing Tree and Manifold Systems: Equipment specifically for hydraulic fracturing operations.
- Subsea Studio: A software platform for optimizing subsea field development and operations.
- Automation and Digital Systems: Technologies to automate and digitize oil and gas field operations.
- Well and Asset Services: Comprehensive services for the maintenance and management of subsea and surface wells and infrastructure.
- Pressure Pumping Services: Services involving the high-pressure injection of fluids for well stimulation.
- Flowback and Well Testing Services: Services to manage initial well flow and evaluate well performance.
- Life of Field Services: Services covering the entire lifecycle of land and shallow water assets, from planning to decommissioning.
- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Solutions: Technical and commercial solutions for capturing and storing carbon emissions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
TechnipFMC plc primarily sells its products and services to other companies, rather than individuals.
Based on the provided background information, a specific company identified in a business context is Talos Energy Inc. (TALO), with whom TechnipFMC has a strategic alliance to develop and deliver technical and commercial solutions to Carbon Capture and Storage projects. For these specific solutions, Talos Energy Inc. can be considered a customer.
More broadly, TechnipFMC's customers are companies operating in the oil and gas industry, including those involved in:
- Oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) in subsea, land, and shallow water environments.
- Oil and gas transportation infrastructure.
- Developing and operating Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects.
The background information does not provide names of other specific major customer companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Douglas J. Pferdehirt, Chairman and Chief Executive OfficerPrior to his role as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of TechnipFMC, Douglas J. Pferdehirt served as President and Chief Executive Officer of FMC Technologies. Before joining FMC Technologies in 2012, he spent 26 years at Schlumberger Limited, where he held a succession of executive leadership positions. These roles included Executive Vice President of Corporate Development and Communications, President of Schlumberger's Reservoir Production Group, Vice President of Investor Relations and Communications, President of North and South America Schlumberger, and Vice President of Oilfield Services U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Mr. Pferdehirt holds a bachelor's degree in petroleum and natural gas engineering from Pennsylvania State University. He assumed the role of Chairman and CEO of TechnipFMC after the merger in 2017.
Alf Melin, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Alf Melin was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of TechnipFMC, effective January 25, 2021. He has been with the company, including its predecessor FMC Technologies, since 1995. Throughout his tenure, he has held various leadership positions in finance, treasury, and operations. His previous roles include Senior Vice President of Finance Operations, where he oversaw global finance activities across all segments and had direct oversight of finance operations for the Subsea segment. He also served as Senior Vice President, Surface Americas, and General Manager, Fluid Control. Mr. Melin holds a Master of Science in Business Administration and Economics from Lund University in Sweden.
Jonathan Landes, President, Subsea
Jonathan Landes serves as President of TechnipFMC's Subsea business. Before taking on this role, he was responsible for all Commercial and Front-End Engineering activities globally for TechnipFMC's Subsea business. Prior to that, he served as President North America for TechnipFMC Subsea. Before the 2017 merger of Technip and FMC Technologies, Mr. Landes was General Manager, North America for FMC Technologies' Subsea business, and held General Manager roles in FMC Technologies' Fluid Control and Material Handling & Blending business units. He earned an MBA from the University of Notre Dame and BS and MS degrees in Agricultural Engineering from Purdue University.
Justin Rounce, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
Justin Rounce is the Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer of TechnipFMC. In this capacity, he is responsible for the company's Long-Term Strategy, Research and Innovation, Mergers and Acquisitions, Corporate Development, External Technology Engagement, Safety, Security, and IT.
Cristina Aalders, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary
Cristina Aalders holds the position of Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary for TechnipFMC. She oversees the company's legal, compliance, and facilities management functions, and also serves as the Chief Compliance Officer. With over 15 years at TechnipFMC, Ms. Aalders has held various legal leadership roles, including Vice President, Legal for Surface Technologies, where she managed the legal function as general counsel, and multiple Senior Counsel and Legal Director roles supporting commercial activities and operations for both Subsea and Surface segments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
TechnipFMC (FTI) faces several key risks inherent to its operations in the global oil and gas industry. The most significant risks include the cyclical nature and volatility of the oil and gas market, geopolitical and economic uncertainties, and the ongoing energy transition. The most significant risk to TechnipFMC's business is its **dependence on the cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry and the volatility of oil prices.** The company's performance is closely tied to the capital spending of its clients, which can be significantly impacted by fluctuations in oil prices and shifts in global supply and demand. Downturns in the industry can lead to reduced client spending, directly affecting TechnipFMC's revenue and profitability. Another key risk stems from **geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty**. TechnipFMC operates globally, exposing it to political, regulatory, and economic instability in various countries. Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and broader economic uncertainties can disrupt operations, delay projects, pressure margins, and negatively impact the company's financial performance. The third significant risk is the **evolving energy landscape and the industry's transition towards renewable energy and decarbonization efforts**. The oil and gas industry is undergoing substantial changes, with an increasing focus on cleaner energy sources and technological advancements. This long-term shift could influence demand for TechnipFMC's traditional services and require continuous innovation and adaptation to new energy markets to maintain its competitive edge.AI Analysis | Feedback
The accelerating global energy transition and the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources pose an emerging threat by potentially leading to a structural decline in demand for fossil fuels. This shift directly impacts the long-term investment in new oil and gas exploration and production projects, which are the primary revenue drivers for TechnipFMC's core subsea and surface technologies businesses for crude oil and natural gas.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlTechnipFMC (FTI) operates in various segments of the oil and gas industry. The addressable markets for its main products and services are as follows:
Subsea Segment
- Subsea Production & Processing Systems: The global market for subsea production and processing systems was valued at approximately USD 23.72 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 54.44 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.67% during the forecast period. Another estimate places the global market at USD 28.70 billion in 2024, expected to grow to USD 54.84 billion by 2032 at a CAGR of 8.43% from 2025 to 2032.
- Subsea Umbilicals, Risers, and Flowlines (SURF): The global Subsea Umbilicals, Risers, and Flowlines (SURF) market size was valued at USD 5.67 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 11.69 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of approximately 7.5% from 2026 to 2035. Separately, the global subsea flowlines market was valued at USD 2.4 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 6.8% from 2025 to 2034. The umbilicals segment is projected to account for 45.2% of the total revenue share in the subsea umbilicals, risers and flowlines market by 2025.
- Overall Subsea System Market: The global subsea system market size was valued at USD 21.20 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 34.93 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 6.46% during 2026-2033.
Surface Technologies Segment
- Drilling and Completion Systems (Fluids): The global drilling and completion fluids market size was valued at USD 13.03 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 20.73 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 5.3% during the forecast period (2026–2033).
- Surface Wellheads and Production Trees Systems: The global surface wellhead systems market size reached USD 3.6 billion in 2024. The global wellhead equipment market size was valued at USD 7.04 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 10.74 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.8% during the forecast period (2025-2033). Specifically for Christmas trees, the global market size was valued at USD 6.66 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 10.66 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.37%. The global market size for wellhead and Christmas tree special parts was approximately USD 6.5 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to reach around USD 11.2 billion by 2032.
- Fracturing Tree and Manifold Systems (part of Pressure Pumping/Hydraulic Fracturing): The global pressure pumping market size was estimated at USD 95.57 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 183.76 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 6.76% from 2026 to 2035. The global hydraulic fracturing market size was valued at USD 64.41 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 142.4 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 8.26% from 2026 to 2035.
- Well Services (including flowback, well testing, and other well services): The global oilfield services market, which encompasses a broad range of well services, is valued at USD 129 billion. It was estimated at USD 133.1 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 166.4 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 3.4% from 2024 to 2030. More specifically, the global rigless intervention services market (a part of well maintenance) was estimated at USD 11.62 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 22.31 billion by 2035.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for TechnipFMC (FTI) over the next 2-3 years:
- Strong Demand and Backlog in the Subsea Segment: TechnipFMC's Subsea segment is projected to be a primary driver of growth, with anticipated revenues between $8.4 billion and $8.8 billion in 2025 and an outlook of $9.2 billion to $9.6 billion for 2026. This growth is underpinned by a robust and expanding backlog, with the company securing significant inbound orders, including over $30 billion in Subsea awards over the three years ending 2025, and expecting orders to surpass $10 billion in both 2025 and 2026.
- Technological Innovation and Integrated Solutions: The company's focus on differentiated offerings such as its integrated Engineering, Procurement, Construction, and Installation (iEPCI™) model and Subsea 2.0 platform is expected to drive revenue. These advanced subsea technology innovations provide greater schedule certainty, enhance customer value, and contribute to securing high-quality, direct awards with improved economics.
- Expansion into New Energy Markets (Carbon Capture and Storage, Offshore Wind, Hydrogen): TechnipFMC is strategically positioning itself in the energy transition. Its increasing engagement in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects, evidenced by significant orders in Q1 2025 and strategic alliances, along with its involvement in the burgeoning offshore wind and hydrogen production markets, represents a key area for future revenue growth.
- Increased Global Offshore Project Activity: The company anticipates continued strength in offshore activity driven by sustained capital investment in offshore projects. Improved economics and increased project certainty for large, high-quality, and prolific offshore reservoirs are expected to lead to a greater share of capital investment in this sector, benefiting TechnipFMC's core business.
- Geographical Diversification and International Market Expansion: Revenue growth is also expected from increased project activity across diverse international markets. Specifically, higher activity levels have been noted in regions such as Africa, the Americas, Australia, the North Sea, and the Asia Pacific, contributing to both the Subsea and Surface Technologies segments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- TechnipFMC authorized an additional $2 billion in share repurchases in October 2025, increasing the total authorization to $2.3 billion.
- Since the initial authorization in July 2022, TechnipFMC has returned over $1.6 billion to shareholders through stock repurchases and dividends.
- In 2025, total shareholder distributions, including share repurchases and dividends, amounted to $1 billion, more than doubling the distributions from the prior year.
Capital Expenditures
- For the full year 2026, capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $340 million, representing just over 3% of expected revenue.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, capital expenditures totaled $94 million.
- The company maintains a disciplined asset-light approach to capital management.
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to FTI.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04172026 | VAL | Valaris | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 15.2% | 15.2% | -0.9% |
| 03312026 | KGS | Kodiak Gas Services | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 16.3% | 16.3% | -0.7% |
| 03312026 | KOS | Kosmos Energy | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 10.8% | 10.8% | -10.8% |
| 12262025 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 54.5% | 54.5% | -2.1% |
| 12122025 | NOV | NOV | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 25.4% | 25.4% | -6.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 46.70 |
| Mkt Cap | 29.9 |
| Rev LTM | 16,180 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,233 |
| FCF LTM | 1,511 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,619 |
| CFO LTM | 2,239 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,397 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -7.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 29.9 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.7 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 22.8 |
| P/CFO | 12.2 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 50.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 85.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 94.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 40.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 60.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $68.42 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 27.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/15/2001 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -11.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $71.75 | $53.09 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -4.6% | 28.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 33.1% | 31.6% |
| Downside Capture | 54.44 | 2.29 |
| Upside Capture | 46.20 | 95.09 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 10.9% | 18.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.55 | 0.32 | 0.54 | 0.52 | 0.59 | 1.07 |
| Up Beta | -0.72 | -0.74 | -0.24 | 0.21 | 0.56 | 1.11 |
| Down Beta | -4.92 | 0.93 | 0.97 | 0.52 | 0.63 | 1.55 |
| Up Capture | 51% | 92% | 140% | 151% | 117% | 120% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 16 | 27 | 41 | 81 | 149 | 421 |
| Down Capture | -263% | 33% | 8% | -9% | -0% | 78% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 16 | 23 | 44 | 102 | 326 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FTI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTI | 124.3% | 31.5% | 2.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 42.5% | 20.5% | 1.62 | 48.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.3% | 11.8% | 1.94 | 17.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.5% | 26.7% | 1.17 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 39.6% | 18.8% | 1.63 | 26.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.5% | 13.1% | 0.64 | 7.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.8% | 41.6% | -0.81 | 13.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FTI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTI | 53.5% | 42.8% | 1.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 21.0% | 26.0% | 0.73 | 70.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.3% | 17.0% | 0.66 | 40.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 11.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.2% | 19.4% | 0.41 | 46.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 28.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.6% | 54.6% | 0.46 | 15.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FTI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTI | 10.6% | 48.1% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 9.9% | 29.5% | 0.37 | 74.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 47.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 16.0% | 0.69 | 6.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 17.9% | 0.33 | 47.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 36.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.0% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 12.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 5/29/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | -1.8% | -4.0% | |
| 2/19/2026 | -0.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% |
| 10/23/2025 | 9.1% | 9.4% | 16.1% |
| 7/24/2025 | 11.8% | 9.4% | 5.3% |
| 4/24/2025 | 9.9% | 12.5% | 18.3% |
| 2/27/2025 | 3.3% | -4.8% | 12.2% |
| 10/24/2024 | 2.8% | 3.7% | 19.5% |
| 7/25/2024 | 4.0% | 8.1% | -4.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 6.3% | 9.4% | 13.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -4.4% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 12.0% | 23.1% | 30.9% |
| Max Negative | -8.2% | -25.9% | -22.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/28/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Subsea Revenue | 9.20 Bil | 9.40 Bil | 9.60 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 9.40 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Subsea Adjusted EBITDA margin | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 21.5% for 2026 |
| 2026 Surface Technologies Revenue | 1.15 Bil | 1.23 Bil | 1.30 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.23 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Surface Technologies Adjusted EBITDA margin | 16.5% | 17.25% | 18.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 17.25% for 2026 |
| 2026 Corporate expense, net | 115.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | 125.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 120.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net interest expense | 10.00 Mil | 15.00 Mil | 20.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 15.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Effective tax rate | 27.0% | 29.0% | 31.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 29.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 340.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 340.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 1.30 Bil | 1.38 Bil | 1.45 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.38 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Subsea Orders | 10.00 Bil | Higher New | |||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Subsea Revenue | 9.20 Bil | 9.40 Bil | 9.60 Bil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 9.30 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Subsea Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 21.25% for 2026 |
| 2026 Surface Technologies Revenue | 1.15 Bil | 1.23 Bil | 1.30 Bil | -3.9% | Lower New | Actual: 1.27 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Surface Technologies Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 16.5% | 17.25% | 18.0% | 6.2% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 16.25% for 2025 |
| 2026 Corporate Expense, net | 115.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | 125.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Actual: 120.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net interest expense | 10.00 Mil | 15.00 Mil | 20.00 Mil | -70.0% | Lower New | Actual: 50.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Effective tax rate | 27.0% | 29.0% | 31.0% | -3.3% | -1.0% | Lower New | Actual: 30.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 340.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Actual: 340.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 1.30 Bil | 1.38 Bil | 1.45 Bil | 0 | Same New | Actual: 1.38 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/19/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oleary, John C G | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 72.79 | 6,350 | 462,217 | 9,559,875 | Form | |
| 2 | Priestly, Kay G | Direct | Sell | 5062026 | 74.66 | 6,000 | 447,960 | 9,500,186 | Form | |
| 3 | Duffe, Luana | EVP, New Energy | Direct | Sell | 5062026 | 74.39 | 1,870 | 139,109 | 5,728,104 | Form |
| 4 | Farley, Claire S | Direct | Sell | 5062026 | 74.66 | 4,500 | 335,970 | 12,997,858 | Form | |
| 5 | Zurquiyah, Rousset Sophie | Direct | Sell | 3252026 | 69.32 | 6,350 | 440,182 | 4,151,367 | Form |
FTI Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 2.53x is highly attractive. The investment thesis is supported by powerful, visible tailwinds (a multi-year upcycle) and company-specific strengths (widening moat via iEPCI). The primary risk, while structural, is not immediate and faces regulatory hurdles, making the 70% upside probability justifiable. This represents a high-conviction opportunity to own a cyclical leader during a strong upswing.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityFTI's revenue is driven by large, project-based contracts tied to the capital expenditure cycles of major oil and gas companies. Its 'revenue_archetype' is 'The 'Project' Hunter (Cyclical/Capex)', and its fate is tied to the supply/demand balance for offshore energy services, making it a classic cyclical investment.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis rests on TechnipFMC's ability to profitably convert its massive $16.8 billion backlog into revenue and free cash flow. This is occurring within a tight offshore services market, affording the company significant pricing power and margin stability. The company's technologically differentiated iEPCI model is capturing the majority of high-value, integrated projects, leading to market share gains.
- Record backlog of $16.8B as of Q3 2025, providing ~1.7x coverage on forward revenue.
- Book-to-bill ratio has been above 1.0 for 15 of the last 16 quarters, indicating demand is outpacing revenue recognition.
- Subsea segment Adjusted EBITDA margins are strong at 21.8%, demonstrating pricing power and the profitability of the iEPCI model.
- The market balance is bullish, with a tight supply outlook for vessels and yards through 2026, supporting resilient pricing.
PRIMARY RISK
The announced merger between key competitors Saipem and Subsea 7 poses a structural threat to the current oligopolistic market. If approved, the merger would create a single dominant supplier for deepwater installation, potentially reducing FTI's pricing power and ability to win integrated contracts in key markets like Brazil. This risk is significant enough that FTI and its major customers are actively opposing the deal on antitrust grounds.
- Definitive merger agreement announced between Saipem and Subsea 7 in July 2025.
- TechnipFMC, ExxonMobil, and Petrobras formally petitioned Brazil's antitrust regulator to oppose the deal in September 2025, validating the severity of the threat.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Subsea Inbound Orders | >$2.5B per quarter | This is the primary leading indicator of future revenue growth and market share. A consistent booking level above the rate of revenue recognition (burn rate) is required to maintain the growth narrative. |
| Subsea Segment EBITDA Margin | Sustainably > 20% | Margin performance is the key proof point of FTI's pricing power and the cost advantages of its integrated model. Any compression below 20% would signal either rising cost pressures or weakening pricing leverage. |
| Book-to-Bill Ratio | Consistently > 1.1x | This metric directly measures whether the backlog is growing or shrinking. A sustained ratio above 1.1x confirms that demand growth is robust and forward visibility is strengthening. |
Integrated Moat vs. Consolidated Competitor
BULL VIEW
FTI's massive $16.8B backlog, technological lead with Subsea 2.0, and strong customer relationships will ensure continued market share gains and robust free cash flow.
CORE TENSION
Can FTI's iEPCI technology moat withstand the structural threat of a larger, more focused deepwater installation competitor formed by the Saipem/Subsea 7 merger?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The backlog of $16.8B (up 14.4% YoY) and consistent book-to-bill ratio >1x demonstrate current business momentum is decisively positive, outweighing the forward-looking merger risk.
BEAR VIEW
The merger creates a dominant installation provider, eroding FTI's integrated advantage, increasing pricing pressure, and jeopardizing future large-scale iEPCI project awards.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Next 6 Months | Regulatory Decision on Saipem/Subsea 7 Merger Watch: Antitrust regulator (e.g., Brazil's CADE) ruling. Watch for approval, approval with remedies, or a block. |
Feb 19, 2026 & Late April 2026 | Q4 2025 & Q1 2026 Earnings Reports Watch: Subsea segment EBITDA margins. A contraction would confirm cost inflation is outpacing pricing power. |
May 4-7, 2026 | Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) Watch: Competitor announcements of significant, fully-integrated subsea project wins using a standardized, lower-cost model. |
Next 6 Months | Major Oil Companies' CapEx Guidance Watch: Formal announcements of 5-year upstream CapEx guidance from customers like Shell, Exxon, Petrobras. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-01 | ExxonMobil Guyana Contract Announcement Details: Despite announcing a substantial contract for the Hammerhead development in Guyana, the stock pulled back, suggesting the positive news was already priced in after a strong run. | Fell notably by -2.9% $36.27 -> $35.22 |
2025-08-22 | New Energy Contract Win Details: FTI secured a significant contract for the Northern Endurance Partnership's CCS project in the UK, showcasing momentum in its diversification strategy beyond traditional oil and gas. | Rose significantly by 2.3% $35.26 -> $36.07 |
2025-09-18 | Opposes Competitor Merger Details: TechnipFMC, with customers ExxonMobil and Petrobras, formally petitioned Brazil's regulator to oppose the Saipem/Subsea 7 merger, signaling a credible threat. Stock reaction was minimal. | Changed Little (0.03%) $39.17 -> $39.18 |
2025-10-23 | Q3 2025 Earnings Beat & Buyback Boost Details: FTI reported strong EPS, robust free cash flow, and increased its share repurchase authorization by $2 billion. The positive results and capital return signal drove the stock higher. | Surged +9.1% $37.46 -> $40.87 |
2025-12-03 | Major Contract Award Details: FTI announced a significant contract from Petrobras for the Marlim and Voador fields, reinforcing its strong position in the key Brazilian market. Stock reacted positively. | Rose significantly by 3.0% $45.32 -> $46.67 |
2026-01-06 | Q4 2025 Earnings Date Announced Details: TechnipFMC announced it would release its Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 19, 2026. The stock reaction was muted on the day of the announcement. | Flat (0.1%) $48.29 -> $48.34 |
Position Sizing
7% - 10%
AGGRESSIVE
The stock has moderate, compressing volatility. Fundamentals are strong with a Bullish sentiment, high visibility from a massive backlog, a widening moat, and fair valuation. This 'fat pitch' scenario justifies an aggressive position size.
Diversification Alternatives
OII
INDUSTRYUnlike FTI, Oceaneering has a more resilient, service-based model (ROVs) and a growing, high-margin defense business, providing diversification away from large, cyclical project risk.
NOV
INDUSTRYNOV provides broad exposure to the global energy equipment cycle. This avoids FTI's specific risk related to the competitive dynamics of large-scale integrated subsea projects.
TechnipFMC is a backlog-driven energy technology company converting a record $16.6 billion order book, primarily in deepwater Subsea projects, into accelerating revenue and margin expansion.
Filter all news through the lens of backlog growth and quality. The key signal is new Subsea iEPCI™ awards, which drive future revenue and profitability.
Subsea book-to-bill ratio ">1.1x"; any large ("> $750M") iEPCI™ project win, especially with major customers like Petrobras, Equinor, or ExxonMobil; guidance increases on Subsea revenue or EBITDA margins; expansion into new energy projects like Carbon Capture (CCS).
Book-to-bill ratio falling below 1.0 for two consecutive quarters; project cancellations or delays by major customers; a sharp, sustained drop in oil prices below $60/bbl; loss of a major iEPCI™ contract to a key competitor like Subsea 7 or Saipem.
Quarterly fluctuations in Surface Technologies revenue; minor contract awards ("<$250M"); short-term commodity price volatility; general analyst commentary on the oil and gas sector without specific project implications.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is re-rating FTI on the execution of its high-quality, ~$15.9 billion Subsea backlog, which provides strong revenue visibility. The 2026 guidance for Subsea revenue of $9.2-$9.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA margins expanding to 21-22% indicates significant profit growth, driven by their integrated iEPCI™ model that improves project economics for clients.
Subsea Production Systems & Services
$8.6B TTM (87% of Total) · 20.1% MarginWhat It Is
Integrated Engineering, Procurement, Construction & Installation (iEPCI™) projects; Subsea 2.0® production systems (trees, manifolds, controls); flexible pipes; umbilicals; life-of-field services.
Who Pays & How
Global energy majors (e.g., Petrobras, Equinor, Shell, ExxonMobil) pay for integrated project management and technology that reduces the risk, cost, and complexity of large-scale deepwater projects, accelerating time to first oil. The iEPCI™ model creates lock-in by unifying the supply chain and project execution under a single contractor.
Competition
Surface Wellhead & Flow Control
$1.3B TTM (13% of Total) · 16.7% MarginWhat It Is
Surface wellhead and tree systems; flow control equipment; measurement systems; fracturing (frac) flowback and rental equipment.
Who Pays & How
Onshore and shallow-water oil and gas operators, particularly in North America and the Middle East, pay for production equipment and services needed to control and manage hydrocarbon flow at the wellsite.
Competition
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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