Frontline (FRO)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $25.0 | Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Frontline (FRO)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $25.0Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.5%, Dividend Yield is 5.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 11% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.9% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 55% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Commodities & Logistics. Themes include Oil & Gas Transportation, and Maritime Logistics. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.5%, Dividend Yield is 5.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Commodities & Logistics. Themes include Oil & Gas Transportation, and Maritime Logistics. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.9% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 55% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
FRO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The public company Frontline (FRO) experienced a 39.5% stock movement between July 31, 2025, and November 18, 2025, driven by several key factors.
1. Elevated Crude Tanker Rates: Daily charter rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) surged, reaching $125,000, marking new highs since the pandemic. This increase was primarily fueled by rising global oil supply and a heightened demand for 'unaffected' tankers due to international sanctions, which boosted earnings for benchmark tankers.
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets: Several analyst firms expressed a bullish outlook on Frontline. Notably, BTIG Research upgraded its price target from $25.00 to $30.00 with a "buy" rating on September 17, 2025, and Evercore ISI Group maintained a "Buy" rating while raising its price target to $26.00 on October 28, 2025. The consensus among analysts was a "Strong Buy" or "Moderate Buy" for the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FRO Return | -41% | 14% | 74% | 96% | -22% | 85% | 225% |
| Peers Return | -23% | 8% | -11% | 3% | -1% | -4% | -28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FRO Win Rate | 25% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 33% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 25% | 37% | 30% | 38% | 33% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FRO Max Drawdown | -49% | -7% | -9% | -12% | -27% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -6% | -20% | -18% | -27% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BANL, TMDE, TOPS, ENB, WMB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FRO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 96 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 684 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -77.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 337.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to BANL, TMDE, TOPS, ENB, WMB
In The Past
Frontline's stock fell -33.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/1/2021. A -33.6% loss requires a 50.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Is Frontline Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | ||
| FRO Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Frontline Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -14.7% in 2024 and 46.6% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| Should You Buy Frontline Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 14th, 2025 | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 24th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FRO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.3% | 4.3% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.3% | 24.3% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.7% |
| 10102025 | SLB | SLB | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.5% | 16.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.3% | 4.3% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.3% | 24.3% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.7% |
| 10102025 | SLB | SLB | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.5% | 16.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Frontline
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.63 |
| Mkt Cap | 73.2 |
| Rev LTM | 6,659 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,164 |
| FCF LTM | 1,722 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,458 |
| CFO LTM | 5,540 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,484 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 38.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 73.2 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/EBIT | 10.7 |
| P/E | 23.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.0 |
| Total Yield | 9.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 75.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 5.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8292025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5232025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4072025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11272024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 9272024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5312024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4262024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 12132023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9142023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 6012023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4282023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 12062022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8252022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 6142022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3172022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 12012021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |