Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.06 | Market Cap: $125.6 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.06Market Cap: $125.6 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -107% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -167% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -178 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2097% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -72% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1365%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1402% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -133% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 104% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -107% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -167% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -178 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2097% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -72% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1365%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1402% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -133% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 104% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FATE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Fate Therapeutics (FATE) stock moved by approximately 3.8% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Positive Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. Fate Therapeutics reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 13, 2025, exceeding analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company reported an EPS of -$0.27, beating the consensus estimate of -$0.29, and quarterly revenue of $1.74 million, which was above analysts' expectations of $1.63 million.
2. Strong Cash Position and Extended Operating Runway. The company announced a robust financial position with $225.7 million in cash, cash equivalents, and investments as of September 30, 2025. Fate Therapeutics also projected an operating runway through year-end 2027, providing financial stability and confidence in its future operations.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FATE Return | 365% | -36% | -83% | -63% | -56% | -39% | -95% |
| Peers Return | 9% | -4% | -34% | -44% | -24% | -2% | -71% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FATE Win Rate | 83% | 33% | 25% | 33% | 42% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 21% | 19% | 15% | 21% | 17% | 25% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FATE Max Drawdown | -12% | -47% | -83% | -84% | -57% | -59% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -13% | -38% | -47% | -36% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ATRA, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI. See FATE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FATE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7015.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 120 days |
Compare to ATRA, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
Fate Therapeutics's stock fell -98.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2021. A -98.6% loss requires a 7015.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FATE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Fate Therapeutics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 1.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.1 |
| Rev LTM | 8 |
| Op Inc LTM | -5 |
| FCF LTM | -64 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -140 |
| CFO LTM | -64 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -140 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 85.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 145.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | -55.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -21.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1,046.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -1,439.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -346.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -699.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -1,005.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -718.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1,018.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.1 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| P/EBIT | 4.4 |
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/CFO | -1.3 |
| Total Yield | -61.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -106.4% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | -0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -30.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -92.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -45.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -163.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research and development collaborations | 64 | 96 | 56 | 31 | 11 |
| Total | 64 | 96 | 56 | 31 | 11 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research and development collaborations | -191 | ||||
| Total | -191 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research and development collaborations | -161 | ||||
| Total | -161 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3052025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11042021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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