Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
Market Price (4/30/2026): $1.24 | Market Cap: $147.9 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
Market Price (4/30/2026): $1.24Market Cap: $147.9 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -85% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -112%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -153% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -148 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2222% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -51%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -55%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -26% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 375% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1596%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1686% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -96% Key risksFATE key risks include [1] critical reliance on the success of specific product candidates like FT819 in autoimmune indications, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -85% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -112%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -153% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -148 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2222% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -51%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -55%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -26% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 375% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1596%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1686% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -96% |
| Key risksFATE key risks include [1] critical reliance on the success of specific product candidates like FT819 in autoimmune indications, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Fate Therapeutics (FATE) stock has gained about 25% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Positive Clinical Data for Autoimmune Programs: Fate Therapeutics reported encouraging clinical data from its off-the-shelf CD19 CAR-T (FT819) program, demonstrating significant improvements in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus. A key milestone was achieved with successful outpatient treatment of autoimmune patients with FT819, which eliminates the need for extended hospitalization and reduces or removes conditioning chemotherapy, thus lowering logistical and clinical barriers. This progress, including a systemic sclerosis patient showing meaningful disease improvement at the 3-month mark, supports a positive outlook for the company's growth.
2. Advancement of Oncology Pipeline: The company's oncology pipeline showed promising early activity. Treatment with FT836, an off-the-shelf CAR T-cell therapy, resulted in a colorectal cancer patient achieving a greater than 50% reduction in CEA levels and tumor reduction across all target lesions at the first dose level, without the use of conditioning chemotherapy. Additionally, preclinical data for FT839, a next-generation, dual-CAR off-the-shelf CAR T-cell candidate targeting CD19 and CD38 for hematological malignancies and autoimmune diseases, was presented at the AACR Annual Meeting in April 2026, highlighting its potential to operate without conditioning chemotherapy.
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1. Positive Clinical Data for Autoimmune Programs: Fate Therapeutics reported encouraging clinical data from its off-the-shelf CD19 CAR-T (FT819) program, demonstrating significant improvements in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus. A key milestone was achieved with successful outpatient treatment of autoimmune patients with FT819, which eliminates the need for extended hospitalization and reduces or removes conditioning chemotherapy, thus lowering logistical and clinical barriers. This progress, including a systemic sclerosis patient showing meaningful disease improvement at the 3-month mark, supports a positive outlook for the company's growth.
2. Advancement of Oncology Pipeline: The company's oncology pipeline showed promising early activity. Treatment with FT836, an off-the-shelf CAR T-cell therapy, resulted in a colorectal cancer patient achieving a greater than 50% reduction in CEA levels and tumor reduction across all target lesions at the first dose level, without the use of conditioning chemotherapy. Additionally, preclinical data for FT839, a next-generation, dual-CAR off-the-shelf CAR T-cell candidate targeting CD19 and CD38 for hematological malignancies and autoimmune diseases, was presented at the AACR Annual Meeting in April 2026, highlighting its potential to operate without conditioning chemotherapy.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.2% change in FATE stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 0.98 | 1.24 | 26.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7 | 7 | -6.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 16.4 | 22.2 | 35.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 119 | 119 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FATE | 26.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | 42.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | -7.3% | 40.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.6% change in FATE stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.26 | 1.24 | -1.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8 | 7 | -21.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 17.6 | 22.2 | 26.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 119 | 119 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FATE | -1.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | 30.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 3.5% | 27.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 56.9% change in FATE stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 225.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 0.79 | 1.24 | 56.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14 | 7 | -51.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.8 | 22.2 | 225.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 118 | 119 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 56.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FATE | 56.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.3% | 17.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | -0.4% | 27.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -78.2% change in FATE stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -93.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.70 | 1.24 | -78.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 96 | 7 | -93.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.8 | 22.2 | 286.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 97 | 119 | -18.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -78.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FATE | -78.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.5% | 26.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.0% | 27.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FATE Return | -36% | -83% | -63% | -56% | -40% | 32% | -99% |
| Peers Return | -2% | -60% | -10% | -55% | -5% | 52% | -77% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 90% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FATE Win Rate | 33% | 25% | 33% | 42% | 25% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 36% | 32% | 33% | 37% | 42% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FATE Max Drawdown | -47% | -83% | -84% | -57% | -59% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -64% | -44% | -57% | -47% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ALLO, CRSP, NTLA, CRBU, IPSC. See FATE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FATE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7015.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 120 days |
Compare to ALLO, CRSP, NTLA, CRBU, IPSC
In The Past
Fate Therapeutics's stock fell -98.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2021. A -98.6% loss requires a 7015.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
Fate Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops programmed cellular immunotherapies for cancer and immune disorders worldwide. Its NK- and T-cell immuno-oncology programs under development include FT516 for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) B-cell lymphoma, and advanced solid tumor; FT596 to treat B-cell lymphoma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia; FT538 to treat AML and multiple myeloma; FT576 to treat multiple myeloma; FT819 to treat hematologic malignancies and solid tumors; FT536 to treat solid tumors; and FT500 for the treatment of advanced solid tumors. The company has a collaboration and option agreement with Ono Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. for the development and commercialization of two off-the-shelf iPSC-derived CAR T-cell product candidates; strategic research collaboration and license agreement with Juno Therapeutics, Inc. to screen for and identify small molecule modulators that enhance the therapeutic properties of genetically-engineered T-cell immunotherapies; and a collaboration and option agreement with Janssen Biotech, Inc. Fate Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Fate Therapeutics:
1. It's like an early Amgen or Genentech, but focused on developing mass-producible, "off-the-shelf" cell therapies for cancer, rather than traditional drugs or antibodies.
2. Think of it as aiming to be the Ford assembly line for cancer cell therapies, making them ready-to-use and scalable, unlike the highly customized treatments currently offered by companies like Gilead or Novartis.
3. It's like the Amazon Prime of cancer cell therapies, aiming to deliver potent, "off-the-shelf" treatments quickly, rather than waiting for custom-made versions.
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- FT516: An NK-cell immunotherapy program for acute myeloid leukemia, B-cell lymphoma, and advanced solid tumors.
- FT596: An NK-cell immunotherapy program targeting B-cell lymphoma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia.
- FT538: An NK-cell immunotherapy program being developed for acute myeloid leukemia and multiple myeloma.
- FT576: An NK-cell immunotherapy program under development for multiple myeloma.
- FT819: A CAR T-cell immunotherapy program for hematologic malignancies and solid tumors.
- FT536: An NK-cell immunotherapy program in development for solid tumors.
- FT500: An NK-cell immunotherapy program for the treatment of advanced solid tumors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Fate Therapeutics, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on research and development. As such, it does not have traditional "customers" in the sense of selling finished products directly to end-users or hospitals. Instead, its primary sources of revenue and collaboration come from partnerships, licensing agreements, and research collaborations with larger pharmaceutical companies that possess the resources for late-stage development, regulatory approval, manufacturing, and commercialization.
Based on the provided description, Fate Therapeutics' major partners, who can be considered its "customers" for collaborative development and licensing rights, include:
- Ono Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd.
- Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) - via its acquisition of Celgene, which had acquired Juno Therapeutics, Inc.
- Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) - via its subsidiary, Janssen Biotech, Inc.
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For Fate Therapeutics, Inc. (FATE), the management team includes:Bob Valamehr, Ph.D., M.B.A. President & Chief Executive Officer
Dr. Bob Valamehr was appointed President & Chief Executive Officer of Fate Therapeutics in January 2025. He is responsible for the company's finance, administration, and operations, encompassing research and development, technical operations, and translational sciences. Before his appointment as CEO, Dr. Valamehr led the development of Fate's induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) platform and therapeutic areas for nearly 15 years, most recently serving as President of Research & Development.
Kamal Adawi, M.S., M.B.A. Chief Financial Officer
Kamal Adawi is the Chief Financial Officer at Fate Therapeutics, overseeing finance, accounting, investor relations, and business development. Prior to joining Fate Therapeutics, Mr. Adawi served as the CFO of Mindera Health. He also held the position of CFO and Corporate Secretary at Exagen Inc., where he was instrumental in leading the company through a successful initial public offering (IPO) and managing its transition to a public entity while scaling its operations.
Martin Hosking, Ph.D. Head of Research
Dr. Martin Hosking serves as the Head of Research at Fate Therapeutics. In this role, he is responsible for overseeing and advancing the development of iPSC-derived immune cell therapies, guiding them from discovery to clinical evaluation for patients with cancer and autoimmune diseases.
Cindy Tahl, J.D. General Counsel & Corporate Secretary
Cindy Tahl serves as the General Counsel & Corporate Secretary for Fate Therapeutics. In this capacity, she is responsible for the company's legal affairs and corporate governance.
Tunde Babalola, Ph.D. Chief Development Officer
Tunde Babalola is the Chief Development Officer at Fate Therapeutics. In this role, Dr. Babalola is involved in the development of the company's therapeutic programs.
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Key Risks to Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
- Clinical Development and Regulatory Risk: As a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, Fate Therapeutics faces significant inherent risks that its product candidates may not demonstrate the requisite safety or efficacy in clinical trials, or may fail to achieve regulatory approval from bodies like the FDA or EMA. Any setbacks in efficacy or unexpected safety issues could significantly impact the development timeline and commercial prospects of its therapies.
- Financial Risk and Need for Future Funding: Fate Therapeutics operates as a high-burn research and development enterprise, consistently incurring losses. Although management projects an operating runway through year-end 2027, this estimate is sensitive to their spending rate, and the company will likely need to raise additional capital or secure significant collaboration milestones before this deadline to maintain operations. Continued negative earnings could necessitate further fundraising, potentially diluting existing shareholders.
- Competition and Market Acceptance Risk: The field of cellular immunotherapies is highly competitive and rapidly evolving. Even if Fate Therapeutics successfully develops and gains regulatory approval for its product candidates, there is a risk that these products may not achieve sufficient market acceptance by physicians, patients, and third-party payers, or that competitors may introduce more effective or cost-efficient therapies.
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Fate Therapeutics Inc. develops programmed cellular immunotherapies targeting various cancers. The addressable markets for their main product candidates, based on the diseases they aim to treat, are outlined below:
- Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML): The global acute myeloid leukemia (AML) treatment market was valued at approximately USD 3.91 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 9.79 billion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.75%. North America, particularly the United States, represents a significant portion of this market due to high disease awareness, robust clinical infrastructure, and rapid adoption of novel therapies. The U.S. acute myeloid leukemia treatment market held a dominant share of 90.9% within North America in 2024.
- B-cell Lymphoma: The global B-cell lymphoma market size was approximately USD 5.08 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to about USD 10 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.00%. For the top 7 markets (U.S., EU4, U.K., and Japan), the B-cell lymphoma market reached a value of USD 5.0 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 9.2 billion by 2035. North America dominated the B-cell lymphoma market, accounting for a 39% share in 2024. For Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma (DLBCL), a type of B-cell lymphoma, the market size in the 7MM (U.S., EU4, U.K., and Japan) is projected to grow from USD 5,286 million in 2025 to USD 16,562 million in 2034, at a CAGR of 13.50%. The United States holds the largest patient pool and market for DLBCL treatment.
- Solid Tumors: The global solid tumor therapeutics market is estimated at USD 207.29 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 326.82 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 7.88%. Another report indicates the global solid tumors market size was USD 170.3 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 375.4 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 7.45%. North America held a 42.03% share of the solid tumor therapeutics market in 2025. The U.S. solid tumor market size was evaluated at USD 224 million in 2024 and is expected to grow to approximately USD 6,323 million by 2034, at a CAGR of 45.18%.
- Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL): The global chronic lymphocytic leukemia market size is valued at USD 6.32 billion in 2026, with projections to reach USD 11.67 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 7.97%. Another estimate places the global market at USD 5.4 billion in 2025, anticipated to reach USD 10.3 billion by 2035 with a CAGR of 6.6%. The U.S. Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia market is estimated at USD 1.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 3.2 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 5.6%. In the broader U.S. leukemia therapeutics market, which was USD 7.23 billion in 2024, the CLL segment held the largest market share of 30.01%.
- Multiple Myeloma: The global multiple myeloma market size stood at USD 31.00 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 49.79 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.10%. Another source estimates the global market at USD 29.43 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 49.89 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 6.04%. In 2023, the total multiple myeloma market size in the 7MM (U.S., EU4, U.K., and Japan) was approximately USD 21,300 million, with the United States contributing the highest share at nearly USD 14,300 million. North America dominated the global multiple myeloma market with a market share of 58.28% in 2025.
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Fate Therapeutics (NASDAQ: FATE) is strategically positioned for potential revenue growth in the next 2-3 years, driven by the advancement of its induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived cellular immunotherapies. The company's key growth drivers are anticipated to be: 1. **Advancement and Potential Approval of FT819 in Autoimmune Diseases:** Fate Therapeutics is actively progressing FT819, a CD19 CAR T-cell therapy, in autoimmune diseases, particularly systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Positive clinical data for FT819 in lupus, along with plans for a potential registration-enabling Phase II trial in lupus nephritis in the second half of 2026, suggest a path toward commercialization. The ability to administer FT819 in an outpatient setting is also expected to enhance patient access and improve healthcare economics, further supporting its market potential. 2. **Clinical Progress of Next-Generation Autoimmune and Oncology Candidates (FT522, FT839):** The company's pipeline includes other promising candidates such as FT522, an ADAR-armed CD19 CAR NK-cell, which has an Investigational New Drug (IND) cleared for an autoimmune disease basket trial. Additionally, FT839, a multi-antigen dual-CAR T-cell product candidate designed for complex autoimmune conditions and hematologic malignancies, is undergoing IND-enabling work following the creation of its master cell bank. These next-generation therapies, particularly those designed to potentially bypass the need for conditioning chemotherapy, could expand Fate Therapeutics' market reach. 3. **Development of FT836 in Oncology:** FT836, an iPSC-derived CAR T-cell therapy targeting stress antigens MICA/MICB, is being developed for oncology indications. Early clinical data have shown encouraging results, including a greater than 50% reduction in CEA levels in a colorectal cancer patient without the use of conditioning chemotherapy, indicating its potential as a future oncology treatment. 4. **Strategic Collaborations, notably with Ono Pharmaceutical:** Fate Therapeutics continues to generate revenue through its collaboration and option agreement with Ono Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. This collaboration focuses on the development and commercialization of off-the-shelf iPSC-derived CAR T-cell product candidates, providing a consistent, albeit currently modest, revenue stream from preclinical development activities. Future milestones and expanded efforts under this agreement could contribute to growth. 5. **Scalable and Cost-Effective iPSC Manufacturing Platform:** The company's proprietary iPSC platform allows for the scalable, off-the-shelf production of cellular immunotherapies. This manufacturing advantage, enabling unlimited expansion from a single cell and potentially yielding millions of doses at a relatively low cost (around $3,000 per dose), is a foundational driver for broad patient access and the commercial viability of its pipeline products once approved.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
No information is available regarding share repurchases made or authorized by Fate Therapeutics within the last 3-5 years.
Share Issuance
- In January 2021, Fate Therapeutics priced an underwritten public offering of approximately $400 million, consisting of 4,421,053 shares of common stock at $85.50 per share and pre-funded warrants to purchase 257,310 shares at $85.499 per pre-funded warrant. Net proceeds were anticipated to be around $376 million.
- The number of common shares outstanding was 115.4 million as of December 31, 2025.
- The company also had 3.9 million pre-funded warrants outstanding and 2.8 million preferred shares outstanding (each convertible into five common shares) as of December 31, 2025.
Inbound Investments
- Fate Therapeutics secured non-dilutive grants from the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), including a $4 million award in January 2025 for FT836's IND-enabling activities, and $8 million for FT-819 and $4 million for FT-830, mentioned in March 2025.
- The company receives collaboration revenue, such as from Ono Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. for preclinical development activities. This revenue was $1.9 million in Q2 2025, $1.7 million in Q3 2025, and $1.4 million in Q4 2025.
Outbound Investments
No significant outbound investments, such as acquisitions or strategic equity investments in other companies, were identified within the last 3-5 years.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures totaled -$5.95 million in the last 12 months (as of February 2026).
- Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter of 2025 amounted to -$2.203 million USD.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes the expansion of its cGMP-compliant manufacturing operations, involving the construction, commissioning, and qualification of a new facility to support clinical trials, nonclinical studies, and initial commercialization of product candidates.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | PGNY | Progyny | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | CNC | Centene | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 2.3% | -0.6% |
| 03272026 | OSCR | Oscar Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.0% | 3.0% | -2.6% |
| 03202026 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.4% | -0.4% | -3.3% |
| 03202026 | GILD | Gilead Sciences | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 2.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| Rev LTM | 9 |
| Op Inc LTM | -177 |
| FCF LTM | -131 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -161 |
| CFO LTM | -130 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -158 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -19.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 22.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -26.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -3.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 18.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -936.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -1,196.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 99.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -789.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -892.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -796.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -928.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| P/S | 18.8 |
| P/Op Inc | -2.8 |
| P/EBIT | -2.9 |
| P/E | -3.0 |
| P/CFO | -2.5 |
| Total Yield | -34.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -55.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 44.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -58.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 11.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -131.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1.24 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/01/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -25.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1.29 | $1.18 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | -4.1% | 5.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 70.3% | 87.8% |
| Downside Capture | 1.93 | 1.68 |
| Upside Capture | 270.22 | 222.60 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 46.6% | 29.9% |
FATE Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.18 | 2.38 | 2.52 | 1.77 | 0.78 | 1.57 |
| Up Beta | 1.56 | 1.50 | 2.82 | 0.90 | 0.33 | 0.86 |
| Down Beta | -0.33 | 1.28 | 2.11 | 1.46 | 0.33 | 1.14 |
| Up Capture | 367% | 460% | 480% | 323% | 255% | 687% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 20 | 30 | 58 | 117 | 328 |
| Down Capture | 286% | 193% | 161% | 152% | 130% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 19 | 29 | 60 | 124 | 402 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FATE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FATE | 4.8% | 87.9% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 4.9% | 15.8% | 0.12 | 40.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.5% | 12.5% | 1.93 | 29.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.2% | 27.2% | 1.09 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.7% | 18.1% | 1.99 | -14.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.4% | 0.65 | 27.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.6% | 42.1% | -0.40 | 23.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FATE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FATE | -56.5% | 90.4% | -0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 4.7% | 14.6% | 0.15 | 28.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 31.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.1% | 17.8% | 0.92 | 5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.6% | 19.1% | 0.63 | 0.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 31.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.1% | 56.2% | 0.36 | 20.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FATE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FATE | -5.2% | 84.8% | 0.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.0% | 16.5% | 0.44 | 30.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 34.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 8.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 25.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 15.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/13/2025 | -4.6% | 1.0% | 7.7% |
| 8/12/2025 | 20.7% | 21.8% | 8.9% |
| 3/5/2025 | 14.9% | 11.6% | -24.9% |
| 11/12/2024 | -8.8% | -8.4% | -19.1% |
| 8/13/2024 | -2.1% | 9.9% | 12.0% |
| 5/9/2024 | 4.6% | 6.2% | -1.0% |
| 2/26/2024 | 7.3% | 1.9% | -1.3% |
| 11/8/2023 | -8.6% | 6.4% | -3.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 6.4% | 9.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -7.2% | -14.8% |
| Max Positive | 20.7% | 21.8% | 67.8% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -19.9% | -30.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/05/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Operating Runway | 2,027 | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/13/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Operating Runway | |||||||
| 2025 Employee Headcount Reduction | 0.12 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tahl, Cindy | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 1122026 | 1.06 | 10,589 | 11,275 | 412,164 | Form |
| 2 | Valamehr, Bahram | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 1122026 | 1.07 | 5,190 | 5,557 | 353,051 | Form |
| 3 | Tahl, Cindy | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8052025 | 1.06 | 9,037 | 9,573 | 421,252 | Form |
| 4 | Valamehr, Bahram | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8052025 | 1.06 | 14,466 | 15,396 | 356,432 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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