Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -180 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8285%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 218%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 1445x
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -50%
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5372%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5388%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.1%
4   Significant short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 17.17
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 218%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -50%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more.
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -180 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8285%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 1445x
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5372%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5388%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.1%
9 Significant short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 17.17

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CGON Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining CG Oncology's stock movement from August 31, 2025, to today:

1. Strong Clinical Trial Durability Data: CG Oncology reported "best-in-disease durability and tolerability" from its Phase 3 BOND-003 Cohort C registrational trial for cretostimogene. The updated data on September 5, 2025, showed 12 additional patients achieved a complete response at 24 months, reaffirming a robust 24-month complete response landmark rate of 41.8%. The median duration of response was 28 months and ongoing, with 96.6% of patients free from progression to muscle-invasive disease at 24 months.

2. Initiation of Biologics License Application (BLA) Submission: The company initiated its rolling BLA submission for cretostimogene monotherapy for high-risk BCG-unresponsive non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) in the fourth quarter of 2025, with complete submission expected in 2026. This regulatory progress is significant, especially given cretostimogene's Fast Track and Breakthrough Therapy Designations, which aim to accelerate the FDA review process.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CGON Return45%
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CGON Win Rate36%67% 
Peers Win Rate 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CGON Max Drawdown-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

CGON has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1100 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About CG Oncology (CGON)

Better Bets than CG Oncology (CGON)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CGON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for CG Oncology

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CGONVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameCG Oncol.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Price40.94452.04-2.510.92-21.72
Mkt Cap3.1115.5----59.3
Rev LTM211,723-0--2
Op Inc LTM-180-92--7---92
FCF LTM-1173,337--7---7
FCF 3Y Avg-762,064--8---8
CFO LTM-1173,718--7---7
CFO 3Y Avg-762,419--8---8

Growth & Margins

CGONVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameCG Oncol.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Rev Chg LTM217.8%10.3%----114.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q3,774.4%11.0%----1,892.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM294.6%2.7%----148.6%
Op Mgn LTM-8,285.3%-0.8%-----4,143.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-14,894.4%26.2%-----7,434.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM20,260.8%1.0%----10,130.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-5,372.2%31.7%-----2,670.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-11,550.7%23.1%-----5,763.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-5,387.7%28.5%-----2,679.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-11,557.1%19.8%-----5,768.7%

Valuation

CGONVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameCG Oncol.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Cap3.1115.5----59.3
P/S1,444.98.5----726.7
P/EBIT-17.222.4----2.6
P/E-20.727.2----3.3
P/CFO-26.926.9----0.0
Total Yield-4.8%3.7%-----0.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.3%----2.3%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.2-0.0-----0.1

Returns

CGONVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameCG Oncol.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
1M Rtn-0.2%3.4%--18.8%-3.4%
3M Rtn22.8%14.6%----18.7%
6M Rtn58.3%-0.7%----28.8%
12M Rtn42.4%-2.5%----19.9%
3Y Rtn-46.6%----46.6%
1M Excs Rtn4.2%4.5%--12.5%-4.5%
3M Excs Rtn15.1%11.8%----13.4%
6M Excs Rtn44.1%-15.0%----14.6%
12M Excs Rtn8.4%-16.8%-----4.2%
3Y Excs Rtn--31.2%-----31.2%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,713,699
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.8%
Average Daily Volume798,897
Days-to-Cover Short Interest17.17
Basic Shares Quantity76,729,726
Short % of Basic Shares17.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/14/20258.6%7.8% 
8/8/20252.1%6.6%38.4%
3/28/2025-1.9%-30.4%3.8%
11/12/2024-6.8%-16.3%-20.1%
8/8/20247.0%7.0%22.5%
5/9/2024-7.4%-13.6%7.6%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive334
# Negative332
Median Positive7.0%7.0%15.1%
Median Negative-6.8%-16.3%-20.1%
Max Positive8.6%7.8%38.4%
Max Negative-7.4%-30.4%-20.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251114202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024328202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023326202410-K 12/31/2023
123120221252024424B4 12/31/2022