Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -14 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -298%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -263%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -265%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -14 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -298%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -263%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -265%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ACOG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the movement of Alpha Cognition (ACOG) stock from August 31, 2025, to today:

1. Significant Public Offering in September 2025
Alpha Cognition Inc. announced the pricing of a $35 million oversubscribed public offering of common shares on September 30, 2025. This offering, while raising capital, likely introduced dilution to existing shareholders, contributing to downward pressure on the stock price.

2. Q2 2025 Earnings Miss
On August 14, 2025, Alpha Cognition Inc. reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, posting a quarterly loss of $0.65 per share, which was significantly wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate loss of $0.46 per share. This represented an earnings surprise of -41.30%, which typically leads to a negative market reaction.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ACOG Return---78%132%-53%8%-74%
Peers Return2%-1%6%8%-0%2%17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ACOG Win Rate-50%33%50%33%30% 
Peers Win Rate13%8%13%12%10%90% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ACOG Max Drawdown---85%-34%-61%-36% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-5%0%-0%-1%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventACOGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-90.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven942.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven505 days464 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

Alpha Cognition's stock fell -90.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/14/2021. A -90.4% loss requires a 942.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Alpha Cognition (ACOG)

Better Bets than Alpha Cognition (ACOG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1How Low Can Alpha Cognition Stock Really Go?Return
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ACOG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Alpha Cognition

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ACOGVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameAlpha Co.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Price6.28458.852.601.1711.5221.908.90
Mkt Cap0.1117.3----58.7
Rev LTM511,7230-0105
Op Inc LTM-14-92-5--93-70-70
FCF LTM-123,337-6--60-64-12
FCF 3Y Avg-102,064-10----10
CFO LTM-123,718-6--60-64-12
CFO 3Y Avg-102,419-10----10

Growth & Margins

ACOGVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameAlpha Co.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Rev Chg LTM-10.3%----10.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-11.0%----11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM56.6%2.7%----29.6%
Op Mgn LTM-298.3%-0.8%----700.7%-298.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM50.9%1.0%----25.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-263.1%31.7%----635.6%-263.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-264.6%28.5%----636.5%-264.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

ACOGVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameAlpha Co.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Cap0.1117.3----58.7
P/S32.18.6----20.3
P/EBIT-9.722.5----6.4
P/E-7.427.3----10.0
P/CFO-12.227.0----7.4
Total Yield-13.4%3.7%-----4.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-431.4%2.3%-----214.6%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.3-0.0-----0.2

Returns

ACOGVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameAlpha Co.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
1M Rtn8.2%8.8%-23.2%-4.8%-8.5%
3M Rtn-24.9%15.6%--14.3%-14.3%
6M Rtn-35.1%3.4%-----15.9%
12M Rtn9.2%-1.1%----4.1%
3Y Rtn-10.6%44.5%----16.9%
1M Excs Rtn6.9%7.5%-22.0%-6.1%-7.2%
3M Excs Rtn-35.2%10.0%--10.6%-10.0%
6M Excs Rtn-50.3%-12.1%-----31.2%
12M Excs Rtn-10.3%-14.9%-----12.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-73.7%-28.4%-----51.1%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity79,278
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-20.8%
Average Daily Volume130,168
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity16,020,702
Short % of Basic Shares0.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025515202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241114202410-Q 9/30/2024

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Wills Robert James 8202025Buy8.4915,000127,328127,328Form
1MERTZ PHILLIP JOSEPH 8202025Sell9.0027,778250,002202,158Form
2MERTZ LEONARD POWELL 8202025Buy9.0027,778250,0021,093,527Form