How Will Vistra Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Vistra (NYSE:VST) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 7, 2026. The company has $54 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $18 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $944 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Vistra’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 59% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 70% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 5.0%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -2.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/26/2026 | 0.8% | -6.8% | -13.0% |
| 11/6/2025 | -2.5% | -5.9% | -12.3% |
| 8/7/2025 | 2.4% | 2.2% | -6.4% |
| 2/27/2025 | -12.3% | -14.4% | -19.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | 7.6% | 12.7% | 26.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | 6.9% | 7.2% | -0.3% |
| 5/8/2024 | 9.1% | 11.9% | 5.5% |
| 2/28/2024 | 4.0% | 15.5% | 34.4% |
| 11/7/2023 | -1.6% | -2.6% | 2.7% |
| 8/9/2023 | 5.2% | 4.9% | 15.8% |
| 3/1/2023 | -1.3% | 20.6% | 7.8% |
| 11/4/2022 | -1.6% | 5.9% | 0.9% |
| 8/5/2022 | -4.0% | -1.1% | -2.6% |
| 5/6/2022 | 4.8% | -7.9% | 4.3% |
| 2/25/2022 | 1.0% | 1.4% | 5.7% |
| 11/5/2021 | 6.7% | 2.0% | 8.9% |
| 8/5/2021 | -3.4% | -3.0% | 2.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -5.9% | -9.3% |
| Max Positive | 9.1% | 20.6% | 34.4% |
| Max Negative | -12.3% | -14.4% | -19.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 24.3% | 24.2% | 34.4% |
| 3Y History | 72.7% | 31.5% | 68.5% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Vistra stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Vistra. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| VST Earnings Dates | VST | NEE | DUK |
| 2/26/2026 | 0.8% | N/A* | 5.4% |
| 11/6/2025 | -2.5% | -1.9% | N/A* |
| 8/7/2025 | 2.4% | -0.3% | 1.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | -12.3% | N/A* | 2.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | 7.6% | -12.2% | N/A* |
| 8/8/2024 | 6.9% | 2.8% | -0.4% |
| 5/8/2024 | 9.1% | 10.0% | 0.1% |
| 2/28/2024 | 4.0% | N/A* | -1.0% |
| 11/7/2023 | -1.6% | 6.1% | -0.7% |
| 8/9/2023 | 5.2% | -8.6% | 0.7% |
| 3/1/2023 | -1.3% | N/A* | -4.8% |
| 11/4/2022 | -1.6% | -0.3% | N/A* |
| 8/5/2022 | -4.0% | 9.6% | -0.5% |
| 5/6/2022 | 4.8% | -4.9% | N/A* |
| 2/25/2022 | 1.0% | N/A* | 1.4% |
| 11/5/2021 | 6.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 8/5/2021 | -3.4% | 4.3% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | -19.4% | 43.8% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after VST
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