With United Parcel Service Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk?
United Parcel Service (UPS) stock is down 11.7% in 5 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around its network reconfiguration, Amazon volume shift, and margin pressures, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where United Parcel Service stands today.
- Size: United Parcel Service is a $87 Bil company with $89 Bil in revenue currently trading at $102.36.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of -2.6% and operating margin of 8.9%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.33 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.08
- Valuation: United Parcel Service stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 15.6 and P/EBIT multiple of 10.6
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Low valuation – making the stock Fairly Priced. For details, see Buy or Sell UPS Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is UPS stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose UPS stock falls another 20-30% to $72 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
- A Decade of Rewards: $54 Bil From United Parcel Service Stock
- Should You Buy Or Sell UPS Stock At $105?
- United Parcel Service Stock Has Paid Out $54 Bil to Investors in the Past Decade
- UPS Has Paid Out $54 Bil to Investors in the Past Decade
- UPS Stock Down -18% after 5-Day Loss Streak
- S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low
2022 Inflation Shock
- UPS stock fell 41.9% from a high of $232.11 on 2 February 2022 to $134.83 on 27 October 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $162.94 on 17 December 2023 , and currently trades at $102.36
| UPS | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -41.9% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- UPS stock fell 27.4% from a high of $118.61 on 16 January 2020 to $86.17 on 12 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 15 July 2020
| UPS | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -27.4% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 125 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- UPS stock fell 33.0% from a high of $134.09 on 12 January 2018 to $89.89 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 30 July 2020
| UPS | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -33.0% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 584 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- UPS stock fell 51.1% from a high of $78.37 on 8 August 2007 to $38.30 on 9 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 March 2012
| UPS | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -51.1% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1,100 days | 1,480 days |
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