How Will American Tower Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
American Tower (NYSE:AMT) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. The company has $83 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $11 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $4.9 Bil in operating profits and a net income of $2.5 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Ask yourself – Is holding AMT stock risky? Of course it is. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.
American Tower’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 15 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 67% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 56% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 1.8%, and median of the 5 negative returns = -3.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/24/2026 | 0.1% | 0.1% | -10.4% |
| 10/28/2025 | -3.7% | -6.9% | -5.3% |
| 7/29/2025 | -4.2% | -5.0% | -7.5% |
| 2/25/2025 | 6.1% | 9.2% | 9.1% |
| 10/29/2024 | -4.2% | -4.5% | -6.4% |
| 7/30/2024 | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| 2/27/2024 | -0.6% | 9.8% | 3.4% |
| 10/26/2023 | 8.1% | 10.2% | 23.1% |
| 7/27/2023 | 1.7% | 0.3% | -6.8% |
| 2/23/2023 | 1.3% | -2.2% | -3.8% |
| 10/27/2022 | 0.9% | 4.2% | 11.8% |
| 7/28/2022 | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% |
| 2/24/2022 | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.5% |
| 10/28/2021 | 0.2% | -1.7% | -7.9% |
| 7/29/2021 | -0.7% | -0.0% | -0.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| # Negative | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -3.4% | -6.6% |
| Max Positive | 8.1% | 10.2% | 23.1% |
| Max Negative | -4.2% | -6.9% | -10.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 31.4% | 47.0% | 39.2% |
| 3Y History | 33.6% | 55.7% | 48.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of American Tower stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before American Tower. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| AMT Earnings Dates | AMT | CCI | DLR |
| 2/24/2026 | 0.1% | N/A* | 8.3% |
| 10/28/2025 | -3.7% | -3.2% | -0.8% |
| 7/29/2025 | -4.2% | -0.4% | -1.0% |
| 2/25/2025 | 6.1% | N/A* | -4.0% |
| 10/29/2024 | -4.2% | -7.8% | 10.7% |
| 7/30/2024 | 3.8% | 3.6% | -1.6% |
| 2/27/2024 | -0.6% | N/A* | -7.0% |
| 10/26/2023 | 8.1% | 0.6% | N/A* |
| 7/27/2023 | 1.7% | -3.0% | N/A* |
| 2/23/2023 | 1.3% | -7.7% | -3.6% |
| 10/27/2022 | 0.9% | -2.1% | -0.4% |
| 7/28/2022 | 4.1% | 6.3% | N/A* |
| 2/24/2022 | 1.9% | -6.7% | -2.5% |
| 10/28/2021 | 0.2% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| 7/29/2021 | -0.7% | -4.1% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | -41.3% | -49.6% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after AMT
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