Will UPS Stock Fall On Upcoming Earnings?

United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. Looking at the last five years of data, UPS stock has a notable tendency for negative one-day returns following earnings announcements. In 60% of instances, the stock has declined, with a median drop of -6.5%. The maximum one-day negative return observed was -14.1%.

While the actual results compared to consensus estimates will be crucial, understanding these historical patterns can provide an edge for event-driven traders. There are two primary approaches to leverage this information:

• Pre-Earnings Positioning: Based on historical probabilities, traders might consider taking a position before the earnings release.
• Post-Earnings Analysis: Alternatively, traders can analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are released to inform their positioning.

Analysts’ consensus estimates for the upcoming quarter are earnings of $1.57 per share on sales of $20.85 billion. This is a decrease compared to the year-ago quarter’s earnings of $1.79 per share on revenue of $21.82 billion. This expected decline in both earnings and revenue highlights potential headwinds for the company.

From a fundamental perspective, UPS has a current market capitalization of $87 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $91 billion in revenue, and was operationally profitable with $8.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $5.9 billion.

That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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United Parcel Service’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 25% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 8 positive returns = 6.1%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -6.5%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

UPS 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

UPS Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like United Parcel Service, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

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