How Will Mondelez International Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. The company has $74 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $39 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.5 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Mondelez International’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 1.9%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -1.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/3/2026 | -0.1% | 2.0% | -2.2% |
| 10/28/2025 | -3.9% | -6.9% | -5.0% |
| 7/29/2025 | -6.6% | -10.6% | -11.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 2/4/2025 | 2.3% | 7.7% | 19.0% |
| 10/29/2024 | 0.9% | -0.1% | -5.9% |
| 7/30/2024 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 6.3% |
| 4/30/2024 | -1.7% | -1.5% | -5.6% |
| 1/30/2024 | -1.4% | -1.4% | -4.3% |
| 11/1/2023 | 1.7% | 3.3% | 6.0% |
| 7/27/2023 | 3.7% | 4.0% | -1.2% |
| 4/27/2023 | 3.9% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| 1/31/2023 | 2.0% | -0.6% | -0.1% |
| 11/1/2022 | 1.1% | 3.3% | 10.1% |
| 7/26/2022 | 1.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| 4/26/2022 | 0.0% | 1.0% | -2.6% |
| 1/27/2022 | -1.6% | 0.7% | -2.9% |
| 11/2/2021 | 1.6% | 1.4% | -3.1% |
| 7/27/2021 | -2.8% | -2.8% | -5.2% |
| 4/27/2021 | 3.7% | 3.4% | 8.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 2.9% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -1.5% | -3.7% |
| Max Positive | 3.9% | 7.7% | 19.0% |
| Max Negative | -6.6% | -10.6% | -11.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 40.4% | 32.6% | 25.5% |
| 3Y History | 47.2% | 28.3% | 22.6% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Mondelez International stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Mondelez International. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| MDLZ Earnings Dates | MDLZ | PEP |
| 10/28/2025 | -3.9% | 3.7% |
| 7/29/2025 | -6.6% | -1.1% |
| 4/29/2025 | 3.8% | -0.7% |
| 10/29/2024 | 0.9% | -1.7% |
| 7/30/2024 | 1.9% | 5.6% |
| 4/30/2024 | -1.7% | 2.7% |
| 11/1/2023 | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| 7/27/2023 | 3.7% | 0.5% |
| 4/27/2023 | 3.9% | -0.0% |
| 11/1/2022 | 1.1% | 6.7% |
| 7/26/2022 | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| 11/2/2021 | 1.6% | 7.7% |
| 7/27/2021 | -2.8% | 3.3% |
| CORRELATION | -55.6% |
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