How Will PACCAR Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
PACCAR (NASDAQ:PCAR) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. The company has $67 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $28 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.0 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.4 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Separately, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has outperformed its benchmark to achieve returns exceeding 105% since its inception.
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PACCAR’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 3.6%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -2.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/27/2026 | -1.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| 10/21/2025 | 2.4% | 3.7% | -0.2% |
| 7/22/2025 | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | -1.9% | -2.8% | 2.5% |
| 1/28/2025 | -2.4% | -0.7% | -3.2% |
| 10/22/2024 | -4.4% | -2.3% | 1.0% |
| 7/23/2024 | -11.0% | -9.8% | -12.0% |
| 4/30/2024 | -6.6% | -7.5% | -7.1% |
| 1/23/2024 | 4.0% | 4.4% | 12.2% |
| 10/24/2023 | 4.3% | 2.8% | 12.7% |
| 7/25/2023 | -2.7% | -2.9% | -3.9% |
| 4/25/2023 | 1.4% | 1.4% | -2.9% |
| 1/24/2023 | 8.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% |
| 10/25/2022 | -0.3% | 5.2% | 15.6% |
| 7/26/2022 | 1.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% |
| 4/26/2022 | -2.9% | -2.7% | -4.4% |
| 1/25/2022 | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 10/26/2021 | -0.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% |
| 7/27/2021 | -2.6% | -5.5% | -5.5% |
| 4/27/2021 | -2.2% | -2.7% | -2.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -2.8% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 8.6% | 8.3% | 15.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.0% | -9.8% | -12.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -9.1% | 11.1% | 4.8% |
| 3Y History | -17.4% | 22.1% | 19.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of PACCAR stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before PACCAR. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| PCAR Earnings Dates | PCAR | TSLA |
| 1/27/2026 | -1.1% | -1.6% |
| 10/21/2025 | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| 7/22/2025 | 6.1% | 5.2% |
| 4/29/2025 | -1.9% | 3.3% |
| 1/28/2025 | -2.4% | 5.0% |
| 10/22/2024 | -4.4% | -12.5% |
| 7/23/2024 | -11.0% | 6.5% |
| 4/30/2024 | -6.6% | 10.0% |
| 1/23/2024 | 4.0% | -15.8% |
| 10/24/2023 | 4.3% | -13.9% |
| 7/25/2023 | -2.7% | -5.2% |
| 4/25/2023 | 1.4% | -17.5% |
| 1/24/2023 | 8.6% | 33.1% |
| 10/25/2022 | -0.3% | -8.2% |
| 7/26/2022 | 1.1% | 11.1% |
| 4/26/2022 | -2.9% | -23.5% |
| 1/25/2022 | 3.1% | -23.5% |
| 10/26/2021 | -0.4% | 30.3% |
| 7/27/2021 | -2.6% | -5.0% |
| CORRELATION | -40.1% |
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