How Will Robinhood Markets Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. The company has $76 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $4.5 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.9 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Robinhood Markets’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 44% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 33% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 1.8%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -2.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/30/2026 | -9.6% | -16.7% | -23.5% |
| 10/31/2025 | 0.2% | -11.2% | -9.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | -2.9% | -0.4% | -2.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | -5.1% | 1.8% | 34.7% |
| 1/31/2025 | -0.1% | 7.5% | -11.0% |
| 10/30/2024 | -16.7% | 5.8% | 33.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | -1.6% | -16.8% | -1.9% |
| 4/30/2024 | 1.0% | 9.1% | 32.4% |
| 1/31/2024 | 1.6% | 2.4% | 54.4% |
| 10/31/2023 | -0.7% | 6.8% | -3.7% |
| 7/31/2023 | 0.1% | -11.8% | -14.3% |
| 4/28/2023 | -0.3% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 1/31/2023 | 3.6% | 1.3% | -7.6% |
| 10/31/2022 | 2.1% | 3.0% | -17.9% |
| 8/2/2022 | 11.7% | 9.4% | 3.5% |
| 4/28/2022 | -2.8% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| 1/27/2022 | 9.6% | 21.9% | 3.4% |
| 8/18/2021 | -10.3% | -1.6% | -14.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 12 | 8 |
| # Negative | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 5.5% | 18.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -11.5% | -10.0% |
| Max Positive | 11.7% | 21.9% | 54.4% |
| Max Negative | -16.7% | -16.8% | -23.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -23.7% | -40.1% | -3.7% |
| 3Y History | -56.2% | -40.3% | 28.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Robinhood Markets stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Robinhood Markets. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD Earnings Dates | HOOD | SCHW | IBKR |
| 1/30/2026 | -9.6% | 2.1% | 4.7% |
| 10/31/2025 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 2.7% |
| 7/30/2025 | -2.9% | 2.9% | 11.4% |
| 4/30/2025 | -5.1% | 6.9% | -0.9% |
| 1/31/2025 | -0.1% | 2.2% | 12.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | -16.7% | -1.2% | 0.8% |
| 7/31/2024 | -1.6% | -3.3% | -3.6% |
| 4/30/2024 | 1.0% | 3.8% | 7.2% |
| 1/31/2024 | 1.6% | -0.8% | 1.8% |
| 10/31/2023 | -0.7% | -3.1% | -7.4% |
| 7/31/2023 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 4/28/2023 | -0.3% | -1.0% | -8.1% |
| 1/31/2023 | 3.6% | -4.9% | 3.6% |
| 10/31/2022 | 2.1% | 18.2% | 12.6% |
| 8/2/2022 | 11.7% | 10.3% | 0.8% |
| 4/28/2022 | -2.8% | -7.8% | -5.5% |
| 1/27/2022 | 9.6% | -2.7% | -9.9% |
| 8/18/2021 | -10.3% | N/A* | -1.9% |
| CORRELATION | -22.6% | 12.4% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after HOOD
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