What Could Rocket Oracle Stock to New Heights

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ORCL: Oracle logo
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Oracle

Oracle (ORCL) has demonstrated notable rallies historically. It recorded more than a 50% surge within two months in 2025. Additionally, there were seven instances where ORCL gained over 30% in under two months, notably in 2011 and 2024. If similar conditions arise, these powerful short-term rallies could drive Oracle stock to significant new heights again, rewarding shareholders substantially.

Oracle, having significantly risen for much of 2025 on its aggressive AI and cloud pivot, now navigates a temporary dip from recent highs. Yet, beneath this market volatility, the firm’s strategic cloud infrastructure build-out and multi-billion-dollar commitments from generative AI titans like OpenAI could unleash a fresh wave of growth, transforming its valuation as its pivotal role in the AI era truly materializes.

Triggers That Could Boost The Stock

  • OCI & AI Explosion: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is projected for over 70% growth in FY26 with a $455B AI backlog, including OpenAI, poised to significantly gain cloud market share by 2029.
  • Next-Gen Health EHR: Oracle Health’s 2025 launch of a new AI-integrated, cloud-native EHR, distinct from Cerner, aims to enhance interoperability and drive significant healthcare market re-entry.
  • Multicloud Dominance: OCI’s “open-by-design” strategy with Azure and Google Cloud allows seamless data integration, mitigating vendor lock-in and accelerating enterprise cloud and AI adoption.

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How Strong Are Financials Right Now

Below is a quick comparison of ORCL fundamentals with S&P medians.

  • Revenue Growth: null LTM and null last 3-year average.
  • Cash Generation: Nearly null free cash flow margin and null operating margin LTM.
  • Valuation: Oracle stock trades at a P/E multiple of N/A

  ORCL S&P Median
Sector Information Technology
Industry Application Software
PE Ratio   20.7

   
LTM* Revenue Growth   0.8%
3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth   3.1%

   
LTM* Operating Margin   22.0%
3Y Average Operating Margin   20.1%
LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin   16.3%

*LTM: Last Twelve Months | If you want more details, read Buy or Sell ORCL Stock.

Given the absence of recent revenue growth, negligible cash generation, and an undefined valuation metric, the fundamental strength of Oracle’s stock appears significantly weakened. This underlying uncertainty naturally leads us to consider the inherent investment risks, particularly how the stock may perform during periods of market downturns.

Risk Quantified

When looking at risk for Oracle, it’s clear that even strong companies can take a hit in market downturns. During the Dot-Com Bubble, ORCL fell about 77%, which is huge. The Global Financial Crisis pushed it down around 41%, and the Inflation Shock caused a similar 40% drop. Even smaller sell-offs like the 2018 Correction and the Covid Pandemic triggered declines close to 19% and 29%, respectively. Solid fundamentals matter, but when the market turns, Orcale’s history shows it’s not immune to steep losses.

Still not convinced about ORCL stock? Consider portfolio approach.

Multi Asset Portfolios Offer More Upside With Less Risk

Stocks soar and sink but bonds commodities and other assets balance the ride. A multi asset portfolio keeps returns steadier and reduces single market risk.

The asset allocation framework of Trefis’ Boston-based, wealth management partner yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Our partner’ strategy now includes Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices