Oracle Stock To $144?
Oracle (ORCL) stock has fallen by 27.2% in less than a month, from $281.40 on 27th Oct, 2025 to $204.96 now. What comes next? We think that he stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of stock’s Very High valuation, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $144 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years. Read Buy or Sell Oracle Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on ORCL stock to help you make the decision. There is only one past instance where it dipped sharply, and returned -0.9% during the subsequent 12-month period, with peak return reaching 0.8%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -0.9% |
| 3M | -0.9% |
| 6M | -0.9% |
| 12M | -0.9% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
ORCL had 1 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 0.8% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 3 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -0.9% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | ORCL Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | ORCL | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -1% | 1% | -1% | 3 | ||||
| 11212025 | -32% | 1% | -1% | 1% | -1% | 3 | ||
Oracle Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 9.7% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 10.2% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 36.5% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 4.9 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 3.0 |
Not sure if you can take a call on ORCL stock? Consider portfolio approach
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