What Is Happening With Oracle Stock?
Oracle (ORCL)‘s stock soared 40%, fueled by a blockbuster $30B AI cloud deal and robust cloud growth that caught investors’ eyes—even as profit margins dipped and Q1 earnings missed expectations. Behind this surge lies a complex mix of excitement and caution worth unpacking.
Below is an analytical breakdown of stock movement into key contributing metrics.
| 5212025 | 11172025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 156.6 | 219.9 | 40.4% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 55,783.0 | 59,018.0 | 5.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.8% | 21.1% | -3.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.0 | 49.9 | 38.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,799.0 | 2,826.0 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.4% |
So what is happening here? The stock jumped 40%, driven by a 5.8% boost in revenue and a 39% surge in valuation multiple, despite a 3.3% dip in net margin. Let’s dive into the events behind these shifts.
Here Is Why Oracle Stock Moved
- $30B AI Cloud Deal: Oracle secured a $30B+ annual cloud services contract, boosting AI infrastructure market position.
- Strong Cloud Growth: Q1 FY26 cloud revenue surged 28%, with RPO up 359% to $455B from major contracts.
- Q1 Earnings Miss: Q1 FY26 revenue and non-GAAP EPS missed analyst estimates, raising investor concern.
- AI World 2025 Event: Oracle unveiled new AI agents, Autonomous AI Lakehouse, and multi-cloud strategies.
- Profit Margin Doubts: Investors grew wary of AI growth sustainability and rising costs, leading to stock plunge.
Our Current Assesment Of ORCL Stock
Opinion: We currently find ORCL stock relatively expensive. Why so? Have a look at the full story. Read Buy or Sell ORCL Stock to see what drives our current opinion.
Risk: A good way to gauge risk with Oracle is to check its declines during major market sell-offs. It plunged nearly 77% in the Dot-Com Bubble, 41% in the Global Financial Crisis, and about 40% during the Inflation Shock. Even the less severe downturns like the 2018 Correction and Covid pandemic saw drops close to 19% and 29%, respectively. Strong fundamentals matter, but when the market turns sour, Oracle still faces sizable sell-offs.
ORCL stock may have seen strong gains recently, but investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.