How Will Guidewire Software Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Guidewire Software (NYSE:GWRE) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, December 3, 2025. The company has $18 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $1.2 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $41 Mil in operating profits and net income of $70 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Guidewire Software’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 5.1%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -5.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/4/2025 | 20.1% | 16.7% | 6.0% |
| 6/3/2025 | 16.4% | 15.4% | 7.1% |
| 3/6/2025 | -7.3% | -5.9% | -6.8% |
| 12/5/2024 | -14.0% | -15.9% | -17.2% |
| 9/5/2024 | 12.4% | 18.0% | 28.0% |
| 6/4/2024 | 18.0% | 25.9% | 29.0% |
| 3/7/2024 | 0.6% | -2.1% | -1.7% |
| 12/7/2023 | -1.0% | -1.5% | 8.0% |
| 9/7/2023 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% |
| 6/1/2023 | -14.4% | -12.4% | -9.2% |
| 3/6/2023 | 5.1% | 1.2% | 13.7% |
| 12/6/2022 | 6.8% | 14.6% | 11.8% |
| 9/6/2022 | 0.3% | 0.7% | -2.0% |
| 6/7/2022 | 0.2% | -11.4% | -6.2% |
| 3/8/2022 | 4.2% | -2.1% | 6.9% |
| 12/2/2021 | -5.1% | -2.8% | -3.3% |
| 9/2/2021 | 3.9% | 3.1% | -4.5% |
| 6/2/2021 | 3.5% | 8.9% | 15.1% |
| 3/4/2021 | -4.8% | -1.0% | -4.3% |
| 12/8/2020 | -4.4% | 0.0% | 3.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -2.8% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 20.1% | 25.9% | 29.0% |
| Max Negative | -14.4% | -15.9% | -17.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 1.0% | -13.3% | -8.5% |
| 3Y History | 3.5% | -16.9% | -25.3% |
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