Oracle Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go?
Oracle (ORCL) stock is down 29.3% in 21 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around lagging cloud margins and AI investment risks, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Oracle stands today.
- Size: Oracle is a $566 Bil company with $59 Bil in revenue currently trading at $200.28.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 9.7% and operating margin of 31.6%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.19 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.06
- Valuation: Oracle stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 45.5 and P/EBIT multiple of 31.3
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 0% within a year
These metrics point to a Strong operational performance, alongside Very High valuation – making the stock Relatively Expensive. For details, see Buy or Sell ORCL Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is ORCL stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose ORCL stock falls another 20-30% to $140 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has been more resilient than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- ORCL stock fell 41.1% from a high of $103.65 on 15 December 2021 to $61.07 on 30 September 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 25 May 2023
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $328.33 on 10 September 2025 , and currently trades at $200.28
| ORCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -41.1% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 237 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- ORCL stock fell 28.6% from a high of $55.73 on 12 February 2020 to $39.80 on 12 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 2 July 2020
| ORCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -28.6% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 112 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- ORCL stock fell 19.2% from a high of $52.97 on 9 March 2018 to $42.82 on 20 June 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 March 2019
| ORCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -19.2% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 266 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- ORCL stock fell 41.1% from a high of $23.52 on 8 August 2008 to $13.85 on 9 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 18 December 2009
| ORCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -41.1% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 284 days | 1480 days |
Feeling jittery about ORCL stock? Consider portfolio approach.
Why Stock Pickers Win More With Multi Asset Portfolios
Stocks can jump or crash but different assets move on different cycles. A multi asset portfolio helps you stay invested while cushioning swings in equities.
The asset allocation framework of Trefis’ Boston-based, wealth management partner yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Our partner’ strategy now includes Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices