Why Has Newmont Mining Stock Moved 44%?
Newmont (NYSE:NEM)’s stock has been on a bit of a rollercoaster this year. It started off pretty weak mostly dragged down by softer gold prices and some concerns around costs and production delays. But things started picking up as gold prices rallied — thanks to global uncertainty and some central bank buying. So far in 2025, NEM has made a decent comeback, recovering a good chunk of its earlier losses. It’s still not blowing the roof off, but it’s in a better spot now than it was at the start of the year, having gained 44% year to date. Newmont’s stock price movement is aligned with that for its peers, including Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPM) which is up 58% and Barrick Gold (NYSE: B) which is up 20% during the same period.
Newmont Corporation’s stock has increased recently due to a combination of factors. Gold prices have surged nearly 30% year-to-date, recently surpassing $3,500 per ounce. This rally is fueled by global economic uncertainties, including a U.S. trade war with China and political tensions involving Federal Reserve policy. As a leading gold producer, Newmont benefits directly from higher gold prices, which boost its revenues and profitability. Buy or Sell NEM.
In 2023, Newmont completed the acquisition of Newcrest Mining, creating an industry-leading portfolio with a multi-decade gold and copper production profile. The integration of Newcrest is expected to deliver significant value for shareholders, with projected pre-tax benefits of $500 million annually by the end of 2025. Additionally, Newmont has been divesting non-core assets, generating substantial proceeds to strengthen its core operations and financial position. Separately, for investors looking for potential gains with less volatility, the High Quality portfolio has comfortably outperformed the S&P 500, delivering over 91% returns since inception.
Factors that drove changes in Newmont’s stock over recent months
Some of the increase of the last five months is justified by the robust performance in the first quarter of 2025, driven by surging gold prices and strategic asset management. Revenue: $5.01 billion, surpassing expectations by nearly $440 million. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.25, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.71.
While Newmont has seen significant revenue growth since 2021, its PS multiple has seen a decline, falling from 3.6x in 2021 to 2.2x in 2024. While the company’s PS is now 3.2x there is an upside when the current PS is compared to levels seen in the past years: 3.6x at the end of 2020 and 2021.
What to expect from Newmont’s stock
In Q1 2025, Newmont reported strong financial results, driven by record-high gold prices and effective portfolio optimization. The company posted adjusted EPS of $1.25, well above analyst expectations, and revenue of $5.01 billion, boosted by an average realized gold price of $2,944 per ounce. While gold production fell 8% year-over-year to 1.5 million ounces, largely due to the sale of non-core assets, the company still delivered robust profitability with $2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $1.2 billion in free cash flow. Newmont completed key divestitures—like the Éléonore and Akyem mines—raising over $2.5 billion in proceeds, and reduced its long-term debt by $1 billion. It also returned $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The strong performance reaffirmed confidence in Newmont’s 2025 guidance and supported the stock’s recent upward trend. We presently estimate Newmont’s valuation to be around $60 per share, about 8% ahead of the current market price.
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