How Will Broadcom Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, December 11, 2025. The company has $1.9 Tril in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $60 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $23 Bil in operating profits and net income of $19 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Broadcom’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 15 positive and 4 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 79% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 15 positive returns = 3.0%, and median of the 4 negative returns = -6.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/4/2025 | 9.4% | 17.5% | 10.7% |
| 6/5/2025 | -5.0% | -1.5% | 7.2% |
| 3/6/2025 | 8.6% | 6.6% | -18.2% |
| 12/12/2024 | 24.4% | 20.8% | 26.5% |
| 9/5/2024 | -10.4% | 7.7% | 16.0% |
| 6/12/2024 | 12.3% | 16.0% | 15.0% |
| 3/7/2024 | -7.0% | -10.3% | -4.6% |
| 12/7/2023 | 2.4% | 20.0% | 17.9% |
| 8/31/2023 | -5.5% | -7.1% | -9.0% |
| 6/1/2023 | 2.8% | 1.8% | 11.5% |
| 3/2/2023 | 5.7% | 4.0% | 7.9% |
| 12/8/2022 | 2.6% | 5.1% | 9.2% |
| 9/1/2022 | 1.7% | 6.2% | -6.4% |
| 5/26/2022 | 3.6% | 8.5% | -4.1% |
| 3/3/2022 | 3.0% | 1.6% | 9.1% |
| 12/9/2021 | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% |
| 9/2/2021 | 1.2% | 1.3% | -2.5% |
| 6/3/2021 | 2.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| 3/4/2021 | 1.5% | 2.3% | 11.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| # Negative | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 6.3% | 10.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -7.1% | -5.5% |
| Max Positive | 24.4% | 20.8% | 26.5% |
| Max Negative | -10.4% | -10.3% | -18.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -26.9% | -38.2% | -24.1% |
| 3Y History | -28.6% | -41.5% | -28.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Broadcom stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Broadcom. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| AVGO Earnings Dates | AVGO | CSCO |
| 9/4/2025 | 9.4% | -3.4% |
| 6/5/2025 | -5.0% | 5.4% |
| 3/6/2025 | 8.6% | 1.4% |
| 12/12/2024 | 24.4% | -0.6% |
| 9/5/2024 | -10.4% | 8.1% |
| 6/12/2024 | 12.3% | -8.2% |
| 3/7/2024 | -7.0% | -2.7% |
| 12/7/2023 | 2.4% | -9.4% |
| 8/31/2023 | -5.5% | 8.3% |
| 6/1/2023 | 2.8% | 4.4% |
| 3/2/2023 | 5.7% | 0.2% |
| 12/8/2022 | 2.6% | 10.4% |
| 9/1/2022 | 1.7% | -2.9% |
| 5/26/2022 | 3.6% | -7.0% |
| 3/3/2022 | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| 12/9/2021 | 8.3% | 1.4% |
| 9/2/2021 | 1.2% | 7.9% |
| 6/3/2021 | 2.2% | 1.6% |
| 3/4/2021 | 1.5% | -8.1% |
| CORRELATION | -24.6% |
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