What’s Happening With Newmont Stock?

September 22nd, 2025 by Trefis Team
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NEM: Newmont logo
NEM
Newmont

Newmont (NYSE:NEM), the world’s largest gold miner, has staged an impressive rebound in 2025, fueled by record gold prices and surging free cash flow. Shares have rallied toward all-time highs, yet questions linger over whether the valuation fully reflects Newmont’s earnings power and sector-leading asset base. Separately, see – Warner Bros. Discovery Stock To $30?

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Revenue & Earnings Power

In 2024, Newmont generated revenues of about $18.5 billion, up sharply from the prior year as realized gold prices averaged $2,250 per ounce; by mid-2025, spot gold surged beyond $3,300, lifting profitability to record levels, with EBITDA margins above 45% on all-in sustaining costs near $1,250/oz and net income of roughly $6.2 billion ($3.50–3.70 EPS). In Q2 2025, the company reported average realized gold prices of $3,320/oz, EBITDA of nearly $3.8 billion, net income of $2.1 billion ($1.85/share), and record free cash flow of $1.7 billion, even as AISC rose modestly to around $1,593/oz; with spot gold now near $3,700, Newmont’s earnings and cash flow potential appear poised for further expansion given its cost base remains well below current prices.

Valuation Multiples

At a recent share price near $82, Newmont trades at around 14x trailing earnings, a discount to many large-cap peers in the mining sector but higher than diversified miners like Vale or Rio Tinto due to its pure-play exposure to gold. On an EV/EBITDA basis, the stock sits near 8x, broadly in line with historical averages. The company offers a dividend yield around 1.2%, modest but well-supported by a payout ratio under 20% and ample free cash flow generation.

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Balance Sheet Strength

Newmont maintains a solid balance sheet with net debt of roughly $8 billion, a conservative level relative to over $10 billion in annual EBITDA. This financial flexibility has enabled the company to sustain shareholder returns while reinvesting in mine expansions and reserve replacement. Projects like Tanami Expansion 2 and Ahafo North underscore Newmont’s strategy of extending mine life and maintaining tier-one asset quality, while its growing copper production provides a longer-term diversification lever.

The Verdict

Newmont’s valuation reflects a balance between strong gold-price tailwinds and investor caution over sustainability of record earnings if bullion retreats. With all-in sustaining costs well below spot prices, a forward P/E closer to 12x, and industry-leading free cash flow, the stock offers a mix of stability and optionality. Should gold remain above $3,500 per ounce and copper output scale as planned, earnings could expand further, leaving room for a 15–20% re-rating from current levels.

For now, Newmont represents a high-quality way to gain exposure to gold. Cyclical risks remain, but the market appears to be underestimating the durability of its cost advantage, strong cash flows, and growing optionality from base metals.

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