How Will LyondellBasell Industries Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE:LYB) is set to report its earnings on Friday, May 1, 2026. The company has $24 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $30 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $831 Mil in operating profits and net income of $-745 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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LyondellBasell Industries’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 1.3%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -1.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/30/2026 | -1.9% | 7.9% | 17.3% |
| 10/31/2025 | 2.7% | -6.2% | 8.7% |
| 8/1/2025 | -7.8% | -13.4% | -0.4% |
| 4/25/2025 | 0.3% | -1.6% | -5.3% |
| 1/31/2025 | -0.6% | 2.1% | -3.6% |
| 11/1/2024 | -0.3% | 0.6% | -4.0% |
| 8/2/2024 | -3.8% | -2.0% | 2.0% |
| 4/26/2024 | 2.5% | -0.9% | -1.1% |
| 2/2/2024 | -1.8% | 0.4% | 8.8% |
| 10/27/2023 | 0.6% | 2.3% | 5.0% |
| 8/4/2023 | -0.7% | 4.4% | 6.1% |
| 4/28/2023 | 3.6% | -1.2% | -3.0% |
| 2/3/2023 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| 10/28/2022 | -5.5% | -5.7% | 2.9% |
| 7/29/2022 | 0.6% | -3.5% | -0.6% |
| 4/29/2022 | -0.1% | 5.0% | 10.3% |
| 1/28/2022 | 0.2% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| 10/29/2021 | -3.7% | -5.5% | -6.3% |
| 7/30/2021 | -1.2% | -3.8% | 3.5% |
| 4/30/2021 | -3.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 1.3% | 3.4% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -3.6% | -3.3% |
| Max Positive | 3.6% | 7.9% | 17.3% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -13.4% | -6.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -23.2% | -50.7% | -0.1% |
| 3Y History | -0.4% | -39.4% | 12.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of LyondellBasell Industries stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before LyondellBasell Industries. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| LYB Earnings Dates | LYB | DOW |
| 1/30/2026 | -1.9% | 1.4% |
| 10/31/2025 | 2.7% | -2.7% |
| 8/1/2025 | -7.8% | -13.1% |
| 4/25/2025 | 0.3% | 0.9% |
| 1/31/2025 | -0.6% | 1.3% |
| 11/1/2024 | -0.3% | -4.0% |
| 8/2/2024 | -3.8% | -1.6% |
| 4/26/2024 | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| 2/2/2024 | -1.8% | -2.8% |
| 10/27/2023 | 0.6% | -2.3% |
| 8/4/2023 | -0.7% | 1.9% |
| 4/28/2023 | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| 2/3/2023 | 1.9% | 3.2% |
| 10/28/2022 | -5.5% | 5.7% |
| 7/29/2022 | 0.6% | 3.5% |
| 4/29/2022 | -0.1% | -4.3% |
| 1/28/2022 | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| 10/29/2021 | -3.7% | -5.6% |
| 7/30/2021 | -1.2% | 2.8% |
| CORRELATION | 46.0% |
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