EXP Stock Falls -14% In 8-day Spree On JP Morgan Downgrade To Underweight
Eagle Materials (EXP) – a supplier of construction materials and oil and gas proppants – hit a 8-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -14%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $1.0 Bil over the last 8 days and currently stands at $6.2 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 6.2% compared to -0.9% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] JPMorgan Downgrade to Underweight
- Concerns over wallboard demand
- Price target cut to $215
- Impact: Accelerated stock price decline, Hit 52-week low
[2] Q3 Earnings and Revenue Miss
- EPS of $3.22 vs $3.32 expected
- Revenue down 0.4% year-over-year
- Impact: Negative institutional sentiment, Downward earnings revisions by analysts
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are a few things to fear in EXP stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. This is aligned with the stock’s Moderate valuation because of which we think it is Fairly Priced (For details, see Buy or Sell EXP).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -14% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for EXP stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | EXP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -1.4% | -0.2% |
| 8D (Current Streak) | -14.3% | -1.8% |
| 1M (21D) | -14.2% | -2.2% |
| 3M (63D) | -12.6% | -1.3% |
| YTD 2026 | -6.2% | -0.9% |
| 2025 | -15.9% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 22.1% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 53.6% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: EXP Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 10 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 101 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 6 | 37 |
| 4D | 0 | 31 |
| 5D | 2 | 5 |
| 6D | 0 | 9 |
| 7D or more | 2 | 19 |
| Total >=3 D | 10 | 101 |
Key Financials for Eagle Materials (EXP)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $2.3 Bil | $2.3 Bil |
| Operating Income | $625.5 Mil | $599.2 Mil |
| Net Income | $477.6 Mil | $463.4 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2026 FQ2 | 2026 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $638.9 Mil | $556.0 Mil |
| Operating Income | $178.4 Mil | $136.9 Mil |
| Net Income | $137.4 Mil | $102.9 Mil |
The losing streak EXP stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.