What Could Spark the Next Big Move In Apple Stock

Apple (AAPL) has a strong record of rapid gains, including more than 30% rallies in under two months across several years such as 2010, 2019, and 2024. Notably, there were two occasions where gains exceeded 50% within roughly two months, including in 2012 and 2020. If past patterns hold, upcoming catalysts could drive Apple shares to new significant highs, rewarding investors who recognize these momentum opportunities.

Apple’s shares have quietly ascended to record territory, buoyed by a robust services segment approaching $100 billion annually and surging demand for the iPhone 17 lineup. While initial AI skepticism lingered, a clearer, device-integrated strategy, featuring Apple Intelligence and Google’s Gemini, now provides a compelling upgrade cycle narrative, suggesting considerable further upside for the tech behemoth.

Triggers That Could Boost The Stock

• AI Breakthroughs: Apple’s advanced AI integration, including a revamped Siri and potential Google Gemini partnership, promises significant new services and could add $75-$100 per share by 2026, driving new revenue streams.
• New Product Cycles: The launch of a foldable iPhone (H2 2026), Vision Pro 2 (late 2025/early 2026) with M5, and smart home devices will unlock massive new market opportunities and accelerate hardware upgrade cycles.
• Services Momentum: Sustained double-digit services revenue growth (15% in Q4 2025), driven by a record user base and AI integration, will significantly enhance profitability and investor confidence.

How Strong Are Financials Right Now

Below is a quick comparison of AAPL fundamentals with S&P medians.

• Revenue Growth: 6.0% LTM and 1.8% last 3-year average.
• Cash Generation: Nearly 23.5% free cash flow margin and 31.9% operating margin LTM.
• Valuation: Apple stock trades at a P/E multiple of 38.2

*LTM: Last Twelve Months | If you want more details, read Buy or Sell AAPL Stock.

Apple demonstrates solid fundamental strength, reflected in its consistent revenue growth and robust cash generation metrics. However, even companies with strong fundamentals are not immune to market downturns, making it essential to consider the potential investment risks ahead.

Risk Quantified

When thinking about Apple’s risk, it helps to look at how deep its slides have been in major sell-offs. During the Dot-Com Bubble, it plunged over 80%, and the Global Financial Crisis saw a drop near 61%. The 2018 correction and Covid sell-off both dragged Apple down around 30-40%. Even the recent inflation shock knocked it about 31%. Solid companies like Apple still face sharp pullbacks when the market turns south.

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, and outlook changes. Read AAPL Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

Still not convinced about AAPL stock? Consider portfolio approach.

Multi Asset Portfolios Offer More Upside With Less Risk

Stocks can jump or crash but different assets move on different cycles. A multi asset portfolio helps you stay invested while cushioning swings in equities.

The asset allocation framework of Trefis’ Boston-based, wealth management partner yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Our partner’ strategy now includes Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices