How To Trade Apple Stock Ahead Of Q4 Earnings?

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is likely to report its earnings on Thursday, October 30, 2025. Earnings are likely to come in at about $1.76 per share, while revenues are likely to grow by about 7% to $101.72 billion. Growth is expected to be supported in part by the new iPhone 17 lineup, which went on sale roughly 12 days before the quarter closed. Apple appears to be experiencing a stronger-than-expected upgrade cycle, driven by the base iPhone 17 model offering better value than in previous years, along with new Pro variants which are priced at a premium compared to last year. These models are reportedly seeing stronger demand compared to prior years, based on longer customer delivery lead times. The company’s Services business is also expected to perform well, supported by rising subscription sales and a growing installed base of active devices.

Image by Lukas Gehrer from Pixabay

The company has $3.7 trillion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $409 billion, and it was operationally profitable, with $130 billion in operating profits and net income of $99 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.

There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 105% since its inception.

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Apple’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 13 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 35% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 7 positive returns = 4.7%, and median of the 13 negative returns = -1.8%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Apple, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and clocked >105% returns since inception.

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