Victoria's Secret (VSCO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $41.55 | Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Victoria's Secret (VSCO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $41.55Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -80% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 181% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -57% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 108% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Experiential Retail, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 16% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -57% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -80% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 181% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 108% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VSCO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Victoria's Secret (VSCO) stock experienced significant upward movement, including an approximate 67% share price return over a 90-day period ending around November 24, 2025, with analyst price target increases reflecting similar high percentages, such as an 84% increase by UBS. This notable performance from late August 2025 to early December 2025 can be attributed to several key factors:
1. Significant Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Increases. Investment banks like UBS upgraded Victoria's Secret stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' on October 29, 2025, substantially raising its price target from $25.00 to $46.00, an 84% increase. Other firms, including Goldman Sachs and Telsey Advisory Group, also raised their price targets for VSCO during this period.
2. Positive Macroeconomic Sentiment. The stock benefited from a broader wave of optimism in retail stocks, driven by suggestions from a leading Federal Reserve official about a greater chance of interest rate cuts. This positive outlook on monetary policy boosted investor confidence ahead of the holiday season.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VSCO Return | - | - | -36% | -26% | 56% | 1% | -24% |
| Peers Return | 24% | 21% | -7% | 38% | 14% | 13% | 146% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VSCO Win Rate | - | 60% | 33% | 33% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 55% | 45% | 68% | 53% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VSCO Max Drawdown | - | - | -52% | -60% | -40% | -64% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -6% | -34% | -10% | -11% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GPI, ABG, AEO, TJX, ROST.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VSCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -80.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 422.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to GPI, ABG, AEO, TJX, ROST
In The Past
Victoria's Secret's stock fell -80.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/13/2021. A -80.9% loss requires a 422.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VSCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| 03312025 | VSCO | Victoria's Secret | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 42.6% | 128.8% | -20.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| 03312025 | VSCO | Victoria's Secret | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 42.6% | 128.8% | -20.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Victoria's Secret
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 164.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| Rev LTM | 19,662 |
| Op Inc LTM | 999 |
| FCF LTM | 561 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 322 |
| CFO LTM | 823 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 530 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 6.3 |
| P/E | 12.3 |
| P/CFO | 6.3 |
| Total Yield | 8.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 1.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 58.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -11.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9052025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6122025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3212025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12092024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9062024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6072024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3222024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9012023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6022023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3172023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3182022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12032021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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