Victoria's Secret (VSCO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $53.51 | Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Victoria's Secret (VSCO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $53.51Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.0%, Dist 3Y High is -3.0% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 189% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Experiential Retail, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -46% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Key risksVSCO key risks include [1] the struggle to modernize its outdated brand image amid intense competition from more inclusive brands, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.0%, Dist 3Y High is -3.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -46% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 189% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5% |
| Key risksVSCO key risks include [1] the struggle to modernize its outdated brand image amid intense competition from more inclusive brands, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VSCO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Victoria's Secret (VSCO) stock moved significantly from August 31, 2025, to today:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat and Raised Full-Year Guidance.
Victoria's Secret reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results on December 5, 2025, surpassing Wall Street's expectations for both revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS). The company announced a non-GAAP loss of $0.27 per share, significantly better than the consensus estimate of a $0.59 to $0.60 loss, and revenue of $1.47 billion, exceeding estimates of $1.41 billion. This positive earnings surprise, along with raised full-year 2025 guidance for net sales, adjusted operating income, and adjusted EPS, signaled strong operational performance and improved outlook, leading to substantial gains in the stock price.
2. Significant Sales Growth and Comparable Store Sales Increase.
The company demonstrated strong top-line growth in Q3 2025, with net sales increasing 9% year-over-year to $1.472 billion. Total comparable sales also saw a healthy 8% increase across both Victoria's Secret and PINK brands, in stores and online channels, indicating broad-based demand and effective retail strategies. This growth was attributed to strength across the Victoria's Secret, PINK, and Beauty brands, as well as momentum in various channels and geographies.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VSCO Return | � | � | -36% | -26% | 56% | 30% | � |
| Peers Return | 24% | 21% | -7% | 38% | 14% | 24% | 170% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VSCO Win Rate | � | 60% | 33% | 33% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 55% | 45% | 68% | 53% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VSCO Max Drawdown | � | � | -52% | -60% | -40% | -64% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -6% | -34% | -10% | -11% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GPI, ABG, AEO, TJX, ROST.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VSCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -80.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 422.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to GPI, ABG, AEO, TJX, ROST
In The Past
Victoria's Secret's stock fell -80.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/13/2021. A -80.9% loss requires a 422.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VSCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| 03312025 | VSCO | Victoria's Secret | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 42.6% | 185.7% | -20.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| 03312025 | VSCO | Victoria's Secret | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 42.6% | 185.7% | -20.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Victoria's Secret
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 169.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.0 |
| Rev LTM | 19,927 |
| Op Inc LTM | 999 |
| FCF LTM | 561 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 330 |
| CFO LTM | 823 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 538 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.0 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 5.9 |
| P/E | 14.4 |
| P/CFO | 7.0 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 1.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 18.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 35.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 83.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 23.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 3.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/5/2025 | 18.0% | 26.9% | |
| 8/28/2025 | -0.5% | 12.7% | 15.2% |
| 6/3/2025 | -2.7% | 9.1% | -2.1% |
| 3/5/2025 | -8.2% | -22.6% | -33.0% |
| 12/5/2024 | 11.6% | 8.8% | -9.0% |
| 8/14/2024 | 16.4% | 27.7% | 16.5% |
| 6/5/2024 | -6.5% | -20.8% | -21.3% |
| 3/6/2024 | -29.7% | -24.2% | -27.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 8 | 3 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 13.0% | 10.4% | 15.2% |
| Median Negative | -5.8% | -13.3% | -14.2% |
| Max Positive | 18.0% | 27.7% | 16.5% |
| Max Negative | -29.7% | -24.2% | -33.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12052025 | 10-Q 11/1/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9052025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6122025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3212025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12092024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9062024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6072024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3222024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9012023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6022023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3172023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3182022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |