Tearsheet

Victoria's Secret (VSCO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $41.55 | Market Cap: $3.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail

Victoria's Secret (VSCO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $41.55
Market Cap: $3.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Apparel Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 16%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -80%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 181%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -57%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 108%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Experiential Retail, Show more.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 16%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -57%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Experiential Retail, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -80%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 181%
6 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 108%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VSCO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Victoria's Secret (VSCO) stock experienced significant upward movement, including an approximate 67% share price return over a 90-day period ending around November 24, 2025, with analyst price target increases reflecting similar high percentages, such as an 84% increase by UBS. This notable performance from late August 2025 to early December 2025 can be attributed to several key factors:

1. Significant Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Increases. Investment banks like UBS upgraded Victoria's Secret stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' on October 29, 2025, substantially raising its price target from $25.00 to $46.00, an 84% increase. Other firms, including Goldman Sachs and Telsey Advisory Group, also raised their price targets for VSCO during this period.

2. Positive Macroeconomic Sentiment. The stock benefited from a broader wave of optimism in retail stocks, driven by suggestions from a leading Federal Reserve official about a greater chance of interest rate cuts. This positive outlook on monetary policy boosted investor confidence ahead of the holiday season.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VSCO Return---36%-26%56%1%-24%
Peers Return24%21%-7%38%14%13%146%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VSCO Win Rate-60%33%33%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate65%55%45%68%53%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VSCO Max Drawdown---52%-60%-40%-64% 
Peers Max Drawdown-54%-6%-34%-10%-11%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GPI, ABG, AEO, TJX, ROST.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVSCOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-80.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven422.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to GPI, ABG, AEO, TJX, ROST


In The Past

Victoria's Secret's stock fell -80.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/13/2021. A -80.9% loss requires a 422.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Victoria's Secret (VSCO)

Better Bets than Victoria's Secret (VSCO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VSCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
VSCO_3312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312025VSCOVictoria's SecretDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
42.6%128.8%-20.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
VSCO_3312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312025VSCOVictoria's SecretDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
42.6%128.8%-20.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Victoria's Secret

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VSCOGPIABGAEOTJXROSTMedian
NameVictoria.Group 1 .Asbury A.American.TJX Comp.Ross Sto. 
Mkt Price42.51410.38236.2323.97150.06178.00164.03
Mkt Cap3.45.24.64.1167.357.54.9
Rev LTM6,26522,53817,8275,26757,92521,49819,662
Op Inc LTM2829831,0143016,4762,580999
FCF LTM2424936291524,0411,679561
FCF 3Y Avg2192363502934,3581,797322
CFO LTM4327788684105,9352,474823
CFO 3Y Avg4364655465146,1452,565530

Growth & Margins

VSCOGPIABGAEOTJXROSTMedian
NameVictoria.Group 1 .Asbury A.American.TJX Comp.Ross Sto. 
Rev Chg LTM2.3%19.4%8.1%-2.7%4.1%1.9%3.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.8%13.0%7.5%1.6%5.3%5.2%5.2%
Rev Chg Q3.0%10.7%13.3%-0.6%6.9%4.6%5.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%2.6%3.3%-0.1%1.6%1.1%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM4.5%4.4%5.7%5.7%11.2%12.0%5.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.9%5.1%6.4%6.7%10.7%11.5%6.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%0.2%-0.2%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM6.9%3.5%4.9%7.8%10.2%11.5%7.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.0%2.3%3.2%9.9%11.2%12.5%8.5%
FCF/Rev LTM3.9%2.2%3.5%2.9%7.0%7.8%3.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.5%1.1%2.1%5.7%8.0%8.8%4.6%

Valuation

VSCOGPIABGAEOTJXROSTMedian
NameVictoria.Group 1 .Asbury A.American.TJX Comp.Ross Sto. 
Mkt Cap3.45.24.64.1167.357.54.9
P/S0.20.20.30.32.41.90.3
P/EBIT5.37.14.75.520.614.86.3
P/E9.814.88.58.327.720.012.3
P/CFO3.47.25.54.023.216.76.3
Total Yield10.2%7.2%11.8%14.8%4.9%6.2%8.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.5%0.0%2.8%1.3%1.2%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg15.6%5.0%7.4%11.9%3.7%4.3%6.2%
D/E1.91.01.31.20.10.11.1
Net D/E1.81.01.21.10.10.01.1

Returns

VSCOGPIABGAEOTJXROSTMedian
NameVictoria.Group 1 .Asbury A.American.TJX Comp.Ross Sto. 
1M Rtn18.1%4.4%0.5%45.0%7.2%10.4%8.8%
3M Rtn85.1%-12.6%-6.9%77.5%7.9%18.4%13.2%
6M Rtn107.7%-2.5%3.3%138.5%17.9%25.6%21.7%
12M Rtn1.5%-4.6%-11.0%25.2%21.8%17.1%9.3%
3Y Rtn-4.3%117.3%28.9%63.2%95.1%54.6%58.9%
1M Excs Rtn18.1%4.4%0.6%45.0%7.2%10.5%8.8%
3M Excs Rtn60.3%-19.7%-14.1%23.3%1.4%11.4%6.4%
6M Excs Rtn92.9%-17.2%-11.4%123.8%3.2%10.9%7.0%
12M Excs Rtn-4.1%-16.6%-22.6%16.1%7.3%2.7%-0.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-79.9%48.6%-41.9%-7.7%22.7%-14.7%-11.2%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,916,427
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202513.5%
Average Daily Volume2,096,703
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.21
Basic Shares Quantity80,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares13.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025905202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025612202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025321202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241209202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024906202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024607202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024322202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231201202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023901202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023602202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023317202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221202202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022908202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022603202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022318202210-K 1/29/2022
103120211203202110-Q 10/30/2021