Group 1 Automotive (GPI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $410.13 | Market Cap: $5.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Group 1 Automotive (GPI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $410.13Market Cap: $5.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 8.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.5% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 101% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include EV Charging Infrastructure, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 8.8% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include EV Charging Infrastructure, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.5% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 101% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GPI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Group 1 Automotive (GPI) experienced a notable decline of 11.5% in its stock price during the period from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. Several key factors contributed to this downward movement.
1. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Miss: Group 1 Automotive reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $10.45, which missed analysts' consensus estimates of $10.64. While revenue for the quarter increased by 10.7% year-over-year to $5.78 billion, exceeding analyst estimates, the significant drop in net income to $13 million from $117.3 million in the same period a year prior raised concerns about profitability despite rising revenue.
2. Decline in Used Vehicle Gross Profit Per Unit (GPU) in the U.K.: The company experienced a decline of over 24% in same-store used vehicle GPU on a local currency basis in the U.K., reflecting a challenging used vehicle market in that region.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GPI Return | 32% | 50% | -7% | 70% | 39% | -4% | 319% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 30% | 8% | 17% | 14% | -0% | 113% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GPI Win Rate | 83% | 67% | 58% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 29% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GPI Max Drawdown | -67% | -5% | -27% | -1% | -15% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -2% | -8% | -4% | -3% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AN, MUSA, BGSI, HIFI, OTH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GPI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 124 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -70.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 235.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 202 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 211 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 864.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1185 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AN, MUSA, BGSI, HIFI, OTH
In The Past
Group 1 Automotive's stock fell -33.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -33.0% loss requires a 49.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GPI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 07312020 | GPI | Group 1 Automotive | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 64.2% | 108.1% | -0.2% |
| 04302019 | GPI | Group 1 Automotive | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 32.9% | -23.7% | -58.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 07312020 | GPI | Group 1 Automotive | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 64.2% | 108.1% | -0.2% |
| 04302019 | GPI | Group 1 Automotive | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 32.9% | -23.7% | -58.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Group 1 Automotive
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 214.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.6 |
| Rev LTM | 11,271 |
| Op Inc LTM | 421 |
| FCF LTM | 127 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 250 |
| CFO LTM | 217 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 437 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.6 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 7.1 |
| P/E | 14.8 |
| P/CFO | 9.5 |
| Total Yield | 7.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| D/E | 1.0 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 77.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 6.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 17,874 | ||||
| Finance, insurance and other, net | 722 | 581 | 463 | 498 | |
| New vehicle retail sales | 7,452 | 6,505 | 5,428 | 6,314 | |
| Parts and service sales | 2,010 | 1,591 | 1,357 | 1,510 | |
| Used vehicle retail sales | 5,673 | 4,439 | 3,056 | 3,367 | |
| Used vehicle wholesale sales | 365 | 366 | 296 | 355 | |
| Total | 17,874 | 16,222 | 13,482 | 10,600 | 12,044 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Pereira Lincoln | 8272025 | Sell | 469.34 | 7,000 | 3,285,346 | 38,939,325 | Form | |
| 1 | MIZELL STEVEN | 7302025 | Sell | 417.98 | 525 | 219,440 | 3,344 | Form | |
| 2 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | SVP & CFO | 6112025 | Sell | 441.38 | 2,423 | 1,069,464 | 7,614,431 | Form |
| 3 | JONES MICHAEL DAVID | Sr. Vice President, Aftersales | 4302025 | Sell | 405.57 | 1,613 | 654,184 | 3,350,170 | Form |
| 4 | Pereira Lincoln | 12182024 | Sell | 426.68 | 6,000 | 2,560,097 | 42,014,185 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |