Tearsheet

TrueCar (TRUE)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.155 | Market Cap: $190.8 Mil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services

TrueCar (TRUE)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.155
Market Cap: $190.8 Mil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -57%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -34 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -19%
1   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.2%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -57%
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -34 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -19%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.2%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TRUE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. TrueCar entered into an agreement to be acquired and taken private by Fair Holdings, Inc., led by its founder Scott Painter, in an all-cash transaction at $2.55 per share. This deal, valued at approximately $227 million, was announced around October 15, 2025, offering a significant premium over the previous closing price.

2. The proposed acquisition established a target price for TrueCar's stock, influencing its trading behavior. With an agreed-upon cash price of $2.55 per share, the stock's potential for independent significant upward movement would be capped by this offer, as investors would expect to receive this amount upon deal closure.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TRUE Return-12%-19%-26%38%8%-43%-55%
Peers Return43%24%-25%25%3%7%83%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TRUE Win Rate50%42%42%42%58%30% 
Peers Win Rate27%35%18%35%27%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TRUE Max Drawdown-55%-25%-61%-29%-24%-66% 
Peers Max Drawdown-13%-12%-28%-8%-17%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: Z, ZIP, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTRUES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-78.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven361.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-56.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven130.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven122 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-85.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven598.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-95.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1965.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to Z, ZIP, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL


In The Past

TrueCar's stock fell -78.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/26/2021. A -78.3% loss requires a 361.8% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About TrueCar (TRUE)

Better Bets than TrueCar (TRUE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TRUE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.9%4.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.0%0.0%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.8%6.8%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
2.1%2.1%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-25.1%-25.1%-25.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.9%4.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.0%0.0%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.8%6.8%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
2.1%2.1%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-25.1%-25.1%-25.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for TrueCar

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TRUEZZIPSTUBWSHPGOOGLMedian
NameTrueCar Zillow ZipRecru.Stubhub WeShop Alphabet  
Mkt Price2.2076.015.4010.78145.00319.6343.40
Mkt Cap0.218.40.5--3,863.09.4
Rev LTM1812,483448--385,4771,466
Op Inc LTM-34-90-27--124,077-31
FCF LTM-01498--73,55278
FCF 3Y Avg-1718756--68,998122
CFO LTM841816--151,424217
CFO 3Y Avg-738766--120,990226

Growth & Margins

TRUEZZIPSTUBWSHPGOOGLMedian
NameTrueCar Zillow ZipRecru.Stubhub WeShop Alphabet  
Rev Chg LTM6.2%15.2%-10.1%--13.4%9.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg2.4%7.0%-20.7%--11.0%4.7%
Rev Chg Q-7.2%16.4%-1.8%--15.9%7.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.8%4.0%-0.5%--3.8%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM-18.9%-3.6%-6.1%--32.2%-4.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-28.5%-8.5%3.6%--29.9%-2.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%1.9%-0.4%---0.5%-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM4.3%16.8%3.5%--39.3%10.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-4.9%17.8%10.9%--35.3%14.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.0%6.0%1.8%--19.1%3.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-10.7%8.8%9.2%--20.5%9.0%

Valuation

TRUEZZIPSTUBWSHPGOOGLMedian
NameTrueCar Zillow ZipRecru.Stubhub WeShop Alphabet  
Mkt Cap0.218.40.5--3,863.09.4
P/S0.97.50.8--7.64.2
P/EBIT-4.8-2,333.9-46.1--19.3-25.4
P/E-8.8-583.5-8.5--23.6-8.6
P/CFO20.744.723.1--19.421.9
Total Yield-11.4%-0.2%-11.8%--4.6%-5.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%--0.3%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-8.2%1.4%5.6%--3.3%2.3%
D/E0.10.01.5--0.00.0
Net D/E-0.6-0.10.4---0.0-0.0

Returns

TRUEZZIPSTUBWSHPGOOGLMedian
NameTrueCar Zillow ZipRecru.Stubhub WeShop Alphabet  
1M Rtn0.5%1.8%29.8%-39.8%-12.7%1.8%
3M Rtn6.3%-9.0%4.9%--38.7%5.6%
6M Rtn57.1%8.3%-16.3%--90.6%32.7%
12M Rtn-51.9%-9.5%-36.2%--87.4%-22.9%
3Y Rtn-20.9%96.5%-67.2%--220.4%37.8%
1M Excs Rtn0.5%1.8%29.8%-39.8%-12.7%1.8%
3M Excs Rtn-1.6%-14.5%-1.1%--32.4%-1.3%
6M Excs Rtn42.4%-6.5%-31.0%--75.9%18.0%
12M Excs Rtn-61.9%-23.8%-52.6%--76.5%-38.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-84.4%42.6%-141.4%--162.3%-20.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Business of providing a digital automotive marketplace159    
Automobile manufacturers (OEMs) incentives revenue 491717
Dealer revenue 156222253318
Other revenue 1191
Total159162232279335


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,668,122
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202525.4%
Average Daily Volume477,441
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.49
Basic Shares Quantity88,526,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021